PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Baltimore Ravensat
Atlanta Falcons
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Baltimore Ravens—Atlanta Falcons—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreBAL 24.2 / ATL 22
Projected total46.2
Projected marginBAL by 2.2
Pace · expected playsBAL 58.15 / ATL 59.23
Projected pass rateBAL 52.4% / ATL 47.6%
TD inventoryBAL 2.63 / ATL 2.39
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 216.5 | 244.56 | +12.5ppProvisional P* hit 65.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 216.5 | 244.56 | -18.1ppProvisional P* hit 34.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 221.5 | 244.56 | +8.7ppProvisional P* hit 62.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 221.5 | 244.56 | -15.3ppProvisional P* hit 38.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 174.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings -111 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 174.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings -113 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 173.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel -114 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 173.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel -114 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.09 | -16.1ppProvisional P* hit 29.8% | DraftKings +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.09 | +10.2ppProvisional P* hit 70.2% | DraftKings -150 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.09 | -19.3ppProvisional P* hit 29.8% | FanDuel +104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.09 | +12.3ppProvisional P* hit 70.2% | FanDuel -138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings +196 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings -255 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel +178 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL at ATL | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel -245 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 89.5 | 94.39 | -5.8ppProvisional P* hit 47.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 89.5 | 94.39 | +0.1ppProvisional P* hit 52.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 88.5 | 94.39 | -4.9ppProvisional P* hit 48.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 88.5 | 94.39 | -1.6ppProvisional P* hit 51.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Derrick HenryBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 85.5 | 79.97 | -14.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.1%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Derrick HenryBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 85.5 | 79.97 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.9%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Derrick HenryBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 83.5 | 79.97 | -13.3ppProvisional P* hit 40.0%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Derrick HenryBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 83.5 | 79.97 | +6.8ppProvisional P* hit 60.0%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justice HillBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 11.5 | -10.8ppProvisional P* hit 43.4%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justice HillBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 11.5 | +5.2ppProvisional P* hit 56.6%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justice HillBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 11.5 | -9.9ppProvisional P* hit 43.4%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justice HillBAL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 11.5 | +3.4ppProvisional P* hit 56.6%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 0.31 | -40.7ppProvisional P* hit 11.3% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 0.31 | +34.8ppProvisional P* hit 88.7% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 0.31 | -39.2ppProvisional P* hit 11.3% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · BAL at ATL | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 0.31 | +32.6ppProvisional P* hit 88.7% | FanDuel -128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 81.5 | 77.98 | -12.9ppProvisional P* hit 39.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 81.5 | 77.98 | +7.3ppProvisional P* hit 60.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 82.5 | 77.98 | -14.3ppProvisional P* hit 39.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 82.5 | 77.98 | +7.8ppProvisional P* hit 61.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 69.5 | 73.18 | -5.5ppProvisional P* hit 47.4%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 69.5 | 73.18 | -0.2ppProvisional P* hit 52.6%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 68.5 | 73.18 | -4.8ppProvisional P* hit 48.5%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 68.5 | 73.18 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 51.5%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 29.5 | 34.85 | +2.9ppProvisional P* hit 56.1%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 29.5 | 34.85 | -8.5ppProvisional P* hit 43.9%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 29.5 | 34.85 | +2.9ppProvisional P* hit 56.1%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 29.5 | 34.85 | -9.4ppProvisional P* hit 43.9%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 32.81 | +4.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 32.81 | -9.7ppProvisional P* hit 43.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 32.81 | +6.3ppProvisional P* hit 59.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 32.81 | -12.8ppProvisional P* hit 40.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 20.42 | -23.0ppProvisional P* hit 29.4% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 20.42 | +17.3ppProvisional P* hit 70.6% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 20.42 | -23.8ppProvisional P* hit 29.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 20.42 | +17.3ppProvisional P* hit 70.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 19.5 | 27.25 | +15.4ppProvisional P* hit 67.8% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 19.5 | 27.25 | -21.1ppProvisional P* hit 32.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 19.5 | 27.25 | +14.5ppProvisional P* hit 67.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 19.5 | 27.25 | -21.1ppProvisional P* hit 32.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 17.5 | 26.74 | +20.4ppProvisional P* hit 73.2%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 17.5 | 26.74 | -26.0ppProvisional P* hit 26.8%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 17.5 | 26.74 | +19.9ppProvisional P* hit 73.2%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 17.5 | 26.74 | -26.5ppProvisional P* hit 26.8%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 5.54 | -13.0ppProvisional P* hit 45.0% | DraftKings -138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 5.54 | +6.9ppProvisional P* hit 55.0% | DraftKings +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 5.54 | -10.1ppProvisional P* hit 33.4% | FanDuel +130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake LondonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 5.54 | +3.1ppProvisional P* hit 66.6% | FanDuel -174 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 5.16 | -10.1ppProvisional P* hit 40.1%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -101 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 5.16 | +4.1ppProvisional P* hit 59.9%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -126 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 5.16 | -10.4ppProvisional P* hit 40.1%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 5.16 | +3.3ppProvisional P* hit 59.9%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.71 | -7.7ppProvisional P* hit 47.7%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -124 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.71 | +1.8ppProvisional P* hit 52.3%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.71 | -10.3ppProvisional P* hit 47.7%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.71 | +3.3ppProvisional P* hit 52.3%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel +104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.37 | -13.3ppProvisional P* hit 41.9% | DraftKings -123 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.37 | +7.1ppProvisional P* hit 58.1% | DraftKings -104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.37 | -15.8ppProvisional P* hit 41.9% | FanDuel -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bijan RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.37 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 58.1% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.72 | -20.9ppProvisional P* hit 25.4% | DraftKings +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.72 | +14.9ppProvisional P* hit 74.6% | DraftKings -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.72 | -24.1ppProvisional P* hit 25.4% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle PittsATL · BAL at ATL | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.72 | +17.0ppProvisional P* hit 74.6% | FanDuel -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 2.15 | -0.1ppProvisional P* hit 59.4%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -147 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 2.15 | -5.9ppProvisional P* hit 40.6%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings +115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 2.15 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 59.4%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -158 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 2.15 | -5.3ppProvisional P* hit 40.6%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 2.11 | -0.2ppProvisional P* hit 58.5% | DraftKings -142 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 2.11 | -5.9ppProvisional P* hit 41.5% | DraftKings +111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 2.11 | -3.4ppProvisional P* hit 58.5% | FanDuel -162 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahan DotsonATL · BAL at ATL | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 2.11 | -3.5ppProvisional P* hit 41.5% | FanDuel +122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 35.5 | 42.03 | +4.4ppProvisional P* hit 56.3% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 35.5 | 42.03 | -10.0ppProvisional P* hit 43.7% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 35.5 | 42.03 | +3.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian RobinsonATL · BAL at ATL | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 35.5 | 42.03 | -9.6ppProvisional P* hit 43.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | QB | Pass yards | Unavailable | 268.22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional Starter |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | QB | Pass TDs | Unavailable | 1.31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional Starter |
| Lamar JacksonBAL | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 19.63 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional Starter |
| Chris MooreBAL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.07 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chris MooreBAL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Derrick HenryBAL | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Derrick HenryBAL | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Durham SmytheBAL | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.97 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Durham SmytheBAL | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.55 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Justice HillBAL | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Justice HillBAL | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.98 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tyler HuntleyBAL | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 8.76 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Devontez WalkerBAL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Devontez WalkerBAL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.85 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| LaJohntay WesterBAL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| LaJohntay WesterBAL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ja'Kobi LaneBAL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.59 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ja'Kobi LaneBAL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Elijah SarrattBAL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.78 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Elijah SarrattBAL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.99 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Matthew HibnerBAL | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 13.55 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Matthew HibnerBAL | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Josh CuevasBAL | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.53 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Josh CuevasBAL | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Austin HooperATL | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 16.2 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Austin HooperATL | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Cooper RushATL | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 5.21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Olamide ZaccheausATL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.64 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Olamide ZaccheausATL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Charlie WoernerATL | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Charlie WoernerATL | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Chris BlairATL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Chris BlairATL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.77 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Brian RobinsonATL | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.57 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Brian RobinsonATL | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Zachariah BranchATL | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 15.95 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Zachariah BranchATL | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jack StrandATL | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 8.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 38 projection entries without quotes · 4 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
16 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Baltimore Ravens - Atlanta Falcons Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.