PREGAME PROJECTIONS
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Los Angeles Rams
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Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreBUF 23 / LA 24.3
Projected total47.3
Projected marginLA by 1.3
Pace · expected playsBUF 57.07 / LA 65.41
Projected pass rateBUF 54.6% / LA 59.9%
TD inventoryBUF 2.50 / LA 2.64
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.3Quote projection 1.1 · DIFF | -12.6ppProvisional P* hit 37.4% | DraftKings +100 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
2Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · archived quote | 244.5 | 235.9Quote projection 238.5 · DIFF | -11.8ppProvisional P* hit 41.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
3Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · archived quote | 37.5 | 28.7Quote projection 29.2 · DIFF | -29.3ppProvisional P* hit 23.5% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
4Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 7.5 | 5.4Quote projection 3.1 · DIFF | -23.9ppProvisional P* hit 22.0% | DraftKings +118 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
5Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 92.5 | 65.9Quote projection 42.3 · DIFF | -34.1ppProvisional P* hit 18.9% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
6Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · archived quote | 2.5 | 1.5Quote projection 1.1 · DIFF | -21.0ppProvisional P* hit 18.6% | DraftKings +153 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
7Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · archived quote | 279.5 | 291.6Quote projection 270.2 · DIFF | +0.3ppProvisional P* hit 53.4% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
8James CookBUF · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · archived quote | 75.5 | 83.9Quote projection 94.8 · DIFF | -1.6ppProvisional P* hit 51.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
9Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · archived quote | 71.5 | 61.8Quote projection 70.6 · DIFF | -21.1ppProvisional P* hit 32.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
10Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 2.5 | 4Quote projection 4.6 · DIFF | +5.5ppProvisional P* hit 68.8% | FanDuel -172 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
11Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 20.5 | 36.8Quote projection 40.5 · DIFF | +29.0ppProvisional P* hit 81.4% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
12Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 4.5 | 4.3Quote projection 5 · DIFF | -6.6ppProvisional P* hit 41.5% | FanDuel +108 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
13Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 60.5 | 63.6Quote projection 83.8 · DIFF | -6.1ppProvisional P* hit 47.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
14Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 3.5 | 3.2 | -19.8ppProvisional P* hit 38.6%Archived proxyP 39.0% · edge -19.0pp · MATCH · historical comparison only | FanDuel -140 | — | Awaiting statAligned archived quote | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 285.5 | 291.59 | -3.1ppProvisional P* hit 50.0% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 277.5 | 291.59 | +1.2ppProvisional P* hit 54.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 277.5 | 291.59 | -7.8ppProvisional P* hit 45.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 246.5 | 235.86 | +7.2ppProvisional P* hit 60.3% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 244.5 | 235.86 | -12.3ppProvisional P* hit 41.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 244.5 | 235.86 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 59.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.48 | +16.1ppProvisional P* hit 81.4% | DraftKings -188 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.48 | -26.9ppProvisional P* hit 18.6% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.48 | +19.9ppProvisional P* hit 81.4% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.3 | +7.9ppProvisional P* hit 62.6% | DraftKings -121 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.3 | -15.9ppProvisional P* hit 37.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.3 | +9.3ppProvisional P* hit 62.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—James CookBUF · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 75.5 | 83.85 | -4.5ppProvisional P* hit 48.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—James CookBUF · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 75.5 | 83.85 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 51.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—James CookBUF · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 75.5 | 83.85 | -4.8ppProvisional P* hit 48.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 69.5 | 61.85 | +12.9ppProvisional P* hit 65.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 68.5 | 61.85 | -17.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 68.5 | 61.85 | +11.3ppProvisional P* hit 64.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 28.72 | +21.2ppProvisional P* hit 74.6% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 28.72 | -27.9ppProvisional P* hit 25.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 28.72 | +21.4ppProvisional P* hit 74.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Blake CorumLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 32.5 | 31.67 | -11.5ppProvisional P* hit 41.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Blake CorumLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 32.5 | 31.67 | +5.8ppProvisional P* hit 58.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Blake CorumLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 31.5 | 31.67 | -9.5ppProvisional P* hit 43.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Blake CorumLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 31.5 | 31.67 | +3.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 7.14 | +46.5ppProvisional P* hit 100.0% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 7.14 | -52.1ppProvisional P* hit 0.0% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 7.14 | +49.4ppProvisional P* hit 98.9% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew StaffordLA · BUF at LA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 7.14 | -55.8ppProvisional P* hit 1.1% | FanDuel -132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 94.5 | 65.91 | +29.8ppProvisional P* hit 82.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 92.5 | 65.91 | -34.4ppProvisional P* hit 18.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 92.5 | 65.91 | +27.8ppProvisional P* hit 81.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 63.5 | 63.56 | +4.2ppProvisional P* hit 56.6% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 62.5 | 63.56 | -8.6ppProvisional P* hit 44.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 62.5 | 63.56 | +2.1ppProvisional P* hit 55.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 49.5 | 41.73 | -22.3ppProvisional P* hit 30.3% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 49.5 | 41.73 | +16.7ppProvisional P* hit 69.7% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 50.5 | 41.73 | -24.5ppProvisional P* hit 28.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 50.5 | 41.73 | +17.9ppProvisional P* hit 71.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 20.5 | 36.79 | -33.7ppProvisional P* hit 18.6% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 19.5 | 36.79 | +30.2ppProvisional P* hit 83.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 19.5 | 36.79 | -36.8ppProvisional P* hit 16.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 7.5 | 5.36 | +19.5ppProvisional P* hit 78.0% | DraftKings -141 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 5.36 | -30.3ppProvisional P* hit 31.2% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Puka NacuaLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 5.36 | +23.3ppProvisional P* hit 68.8% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.31 | -10.5ppProvisional P* hit 41.5% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.31 | +4.4ppProvisional P* hit 58.5% | DraftKings -118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Davante AdamsLA · BUF at LA | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.31 | -0.5ppProvisional P* hit 58.5% | FanDuel -144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | -20.0ppProvisional P* hit 24.0% | DraftKings +127 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | +14.0ppProvisional P* hit 76.0% | DraftKings -163 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF at LA | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | +13.6ppProvisional P* hit 76.0% | FanDuel -166 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.95 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 68.8% | DraftKings -171 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.95 | -11.5ppProvisional P* hit 31.2% | DraftKings +134 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyren WilliamsLA · BUF at LA | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.95 | -14.6ppProvisional P* hit 31.2% | FanDuel +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| DJ MooreBUF | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 37.16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| DJ MooreBUF | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ty JohnsonBUF | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 3.39 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ty JohnsonBUF | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ty JohnsonBUF | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Dawson KnoxBUF | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.87 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Dawson KnoxBUF | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Josh PalmerBUF | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 22.86 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Josh PalmerBUF | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.66 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| James CookBUF | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| James CookBUF | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Khalil ShakirBUF | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 40.94 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Khalil ShakirBUF | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.89 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Frank Gore Jr.BUF | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 5.6 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Frank Gore Jr.BUF | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.34 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ray DavisBUF | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 5.53 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ray DavisBUF | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 5.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ray DavisBUF | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.41 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Keon ColemanBUF | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 39.47 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Keon ColemanBUF | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.34 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jackson HawesBUF | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.57 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jackson HawesBUF | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.69 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Tyler HigbeeLA | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 33.27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tyler HigbeeLA | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Colby ParkinsonLA | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.47 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Colby ParkinsonLA | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.91 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tutu AtwellLA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.9 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Tutu AtwellLA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ronnie RiversLA | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 16.99 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ronnie RiversLA | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ronnie RiversLA | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.77 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Xavier SmithLA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.11 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Xavier SmithLA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.63 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Davis AllenLA | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Davis AllenLA | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.85 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Stetson BennettLA | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 4.37 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Blake CorumLA | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.64 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Blake CorumLA | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.88 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jordan WhittingtonLA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.4 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jordan WhittingtonLA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.8 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Konata MumpfieldLA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 20.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Konata MumpfieldLA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.46 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Terrance FergusonLA | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 23.94 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Terrance FergusonLA | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 44 projection entries without quotes · 3 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
13 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
26 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Buffalo Bills - Los Angeles Rams Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.