PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Chicago Bearsat
Green Bay Packers
Connecting to game feedLoading
Chicago Bears—Green Bay Packers—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreCHI 26.8 / GB 20.8
Projected total47.6
Projected marginCHI by 6.0
Pace · expected playsCHI 67.55 / GB 52.01
Projected pass rateCHI 45.0% / GB 67.1%
TD inventoryCHI 2.91 / GB 2.26
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 234.5 | 245.51 | +0.9ppProvisional P* hit 53.9% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 234.5 | 245.51 | -6.5ppProvisional P* hit 46.1% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 233.5 | 245.51 | +1.3ppProvisional P* hit 54.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 233.5 | 245.51 | -7.9ppProvisional P* hit 45.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 218.5 | 223.03 | -2.7ppProvisional P* hit 49.9% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 218.5 | 223.03 | -3.0ppProvisional P* hit 50.1% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 219.5 | 223.03 | -4.1ppProvisional P* hit 49.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 219.5 | 223.03 | -2.5ppProvisional P* hit 50.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.45 | -6.6ppProvisional P* hit 42.5% | DraftKings +104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.45 | +0.5ppProvisional P* hit 57.5% | DraftKings -133 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.45 | -5.6ppProvisional P* hit 42.5% | FanDuel +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.45 | -1.5ppProvisional P* hit 57.5% | FanDuel -144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.33 | -9.4ppProvisional P* hit 38.2% | DraftKings +110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.33 | +3.3ppProvisional P* hit 61.8% | DraftKings -141 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.33 | -11.3ppProvisional P* hit 38.2% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.33 | +4.1ppProvisional P* hit 61.8% | FanDuel -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 60.5 | 59.07 | -11.8ppProvisional P* hit 41.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 60.5 | 59.07 | +6.1ppProvisional P* hit 58.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 61.5 | 59.07 | -13.1ppProvisional P* hit 40.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 61.5 | 59.07 | +6.5ppProvisional P* hit 59.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle MonangaiCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 61.48 | +4.5ppProvisional P* hit 56.9% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle MonangaiCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 61.48 | -10.2ppProvisional P* hit 43.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle MonangaiCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 61.48 | +3.7ppProvisional P* hit 56.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyle MonangaiCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 61.48 | -10.2ppProvisional P* hit 43.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 27.08 | -31.4ppProvisional P* hit 21.4% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 27.08 | +25.7ppProvisional P* hit 78.6% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 27.08 | -31.8ppProvisional P* hit 21.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 27.08 | +25.3ppProvisional P* hit 78.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 23.66 | -20.6ppProvisional P* hit 31.8% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 23.66 | +15.0ppProvisional P* hit 68.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 23.66 | -21.5ppProvisional P* hit 31.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 23.66 | +15.0ppProvisional P* hit 68.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 2.27 | -54.3ppProvisional P* hit 0.0% | DraftKings -119 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 2.27 | +48.8ppProvisional P* hit 100.0% | DraftKings -105 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 2.27 | -53.3ppProvisional P* hit 0.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyson BagentCHI · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 2.27 | +46.7ppProvisional P* hit 100.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 3.24 | -49.5ppProvisional P* hit 4.2% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 3.24 | +43.9ppProvisional P* hit 95.8% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 3.24 | -49.1ppProvisional P* hit 4.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jordan LoveGB · CHI at GB | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 3.24 | +42.5ppProvisional P* hit 95.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 60.5 | 56.57 | -14.3ppProvisional P* hit 38.1% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 60.5 | 56.57 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.9% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 60.5 | 56.57 | -15.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 60.5 | 56.57 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 56.5 | 57.12 | -8.4ppProvisional P* hit 44.2% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 56.5 | 57.12 | +2.8ppProvisional P* hit 55.8% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 55.5 | 57.12 | -7.7ppProvisional P* hit 45.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 55.5 | 57.12 | +1.1ppProvisional P* hit 54.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 49.5 | 37.18 | -30.8ppProvisional P* hit 22.2% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 49.5 | 37.18 | +25.2ppProvisional P* hit 77.8% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 49.5 | 37.18 | -31.0ppProvisional P* hit 22.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 49.5 | 37.18 | +24.5ppProvisional P* hit 77.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 48.5 | 51.19 | -5.3ppProvisional P* hit 47.6% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 48.5 | 51.19 | -0.4ppProvisional P* hit 52.4% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 48.5 | 51.19 | -5.7ppProvisional P* hit 47.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 48.5 | 51.19 | -0.8ppProvisional P* hit 52.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 40.5 | 45.37 | -1.1ppProvisional P* hit 52.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 40.5 | 45.37 | -4.5ppProvisional P* hit 47.9% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 39.5 | 45.37 | +0.8ppProvisional P* hit 54.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 39.5 | 45.37 | -7.3ppProvisional P* hit 46.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 31.28 | -22.7ppProvisional P* hit 29.5% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 31.28 | +17.0ppProvisional P* hit 70.5% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 31.28 | -23.8ppProvisional P* hit 29.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 31.28 | +17.2ppProvisional P* hit 70.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 28.5 | 42.08 | +17.9ppProvisional P* hit 71.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 28.5 | 42.08 | -23.6ppProvisional P* hit 28.8% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 28.5 | 42.08 | +17.9ppProvisional P* hit 71.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 28.5 | 42.08 | -24.5ppProvisional P* hit 28.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 14.5 | 19.25 | +11.8ppProvisional P* hit 64.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 14.5 | 19.25 | -17.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.6% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 13.5 | 19.25 | +15.8ppProvisional P* hit 69.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 13.5 | 19.25 | -22.3ppProvisional P* hit 30.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 13.5 | 18.77 | +14.2ppProvisional P* hit 67.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 13.5 | 18.77 | -19.9ppProvisional P* hit 32.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 12.5 | 18.77 | +18.9ppProvisional P* hit 72.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 12.5 | 18.77 | -25.5ppProvisional P* hit 27.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 12.5 | 16.77 | +13.2ppProvisional P* hit 65.1% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 12.5 | 16.77 | -18.8ppProvisional P* hit 34.9% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 16.77 | +17.2ppProvisional P* hit 70.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 16.77 | -23.7ppProvisional P* hit 29.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.55 | -10.0ppProvisional P* hit 45.0% | DraftKings -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.55 | +3.8ppProvisional P* hit 55.0% | DraftKings -105 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.55 | -11.2ppProvisional P* hit 45.0% | FanDuel -128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.55 | +4.0ppProvisional P* hit 55.0% | FanDuel -104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.08 | -13.4ppProvisional P* hit 38.1% | DraftKings -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.08 | +7.4ppProvisional P* hit 61.9% | DraftKings -120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.08 | -15.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Matthew GoldenGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.08 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.37 | -21.9ppProvisional P* hit 26.9% | DraftKings +105 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.37 | +16.1ppProvisional P* hit 73.1% | DraftKings -133 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.37 | -25.1ppProvisional P* hit 26.9% | FanDuel -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tucker KraftGB · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.37 | +18.2ppProvisional P* hit 73.1% | FanDuel -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.03 | -8.4ppProvisional P* hit 37.3% | DraftKings +119 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.03 | +2.4ppProvisional P* hit 62.7% | DraftKings -152 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.03 | -9.9ppProvisional P* hit 37.3% | FanDuel +112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Christian WatsonGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.03 | +3.0ppProvisional P* hit 62.7% | FanDuel -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.03 | -25.3ppProvisional P* hit 35.6% | DraftKings -156 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.03 | +19.3ppProvisional P* hit 64.4% | DraftKings +122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.03 | -25.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.6% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI at GB | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.03 | +18.9ppProvisional P* hit 64.4% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 4.13 | +9.4ppProvisional P* hit 54.2% | DraftKings +123 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 4.13 | -15.3ppProvisional P* hit 45.8% | DraftKings -157 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 4.13 | +7.9ppProvisional P* hit 54.2% | FanDuel +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 4.13 | -14.9ppProvisional P* hit 45.8% | FanDuel -154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.43 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 42.8% | DraftKings +127 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.43 | -4.7ppProvisional P* hit 57.2% | DraftKings -162 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.43 | -3.4ppProvisional P* hit 61.2% | FanDuel -182 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.43 | -3.5ppProvisional P* hit 38.8% | FanDuel +136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | -9.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.9% | DraftKings +140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | +3.8ppProvisional P* hit 68.1% | DraftKings -180 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | -12.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.9% | FanDuel +124 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—MarShawn LloydGB · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 68.1% | FanDuel -166 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | -10.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.0% | DraftKings +140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | +4.7ppProvisional P* hit 69.0% | DraftKings -180 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | -9.3ppProvisional P* hit 31.0% | FanDuel +148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI at GB | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | +2.4ppProvisional P* hit 69.0% | FanDuel -200 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -1.4ppProvisional P* hit 44.5% | DraftKings +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -4.6ppProvisional P* hit 55.5% | DraftKings -151 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -1.0ppProvisional P* hit 44.5% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Skyy MooreGB · CHI at GB | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -6.0ppProvisional P* hit 55.5% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Case KeenumCHI | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 8.08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Cole KmetCHI | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.51 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Cole KmetCHI | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Roschon JohnsonCHI | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 10.4 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Roschon JohnsonCHI | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.89 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Roschon JohnsonCHI | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.64 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Caleb WilliamsCHI | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 33.41 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.36 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kyle MonangaiCHI | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.84 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jahdae WalkerCHI | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.88 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jahdae WalkerCHI | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.76 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Sam RoushCHI | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Sam RoushCHI | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.94 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jonnu SmithGB | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.84 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jonnu SmithGB | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chris BrooksGB | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 13.84 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chris BrooksGB | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.57 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chris BrooksGB | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.68 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jayden ReedGB | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jayden ReedGB | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kaleb JohnsonGB | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kaleb JohnsonGB | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.46 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Mark RedmanGB | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 17.32 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mark RedmanGB | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| J. Michael SturdivantGB | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.32 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| J. Michael SturdivantGB | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 26 projection entries without quotes · 2 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
32 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Chicago Bears - Green Bay Packers Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.