PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Cincinnati Bengalsat
Miami Dolphins
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Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreCIN 24.9 / MIA 18
Projected total42.9
Projected marginCIN by 6.9
Pace · expected playsCIN 58.27 / MIA 51.94
Projected pass rateCIN 58.8% / MIA 57.6%
TD inventoryCIN 2.70 / MIA 1.95
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 234.5 | 259.51 | +9.3ppProvisional P* hit 62.3% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 234.5 | 259.51 | -14.9ppProvisional P* hit 37.7% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 235.5 | 259.51 | +8.4ppProvisional P* hit 61.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 235.5 | 259.51 | -15.0ppProvisional P* hit 38.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 192.5 | 212.59 | +9.2ppProvisional P* hit 62.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 192.5 | 212.59 | -14.9ppProvisional P* hit 38.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 192.5 | 212.59 | +8.8ppProvisional P* hit 62.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 192.5 | 212.59 | -15.3ppProvisional P* hit 38.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | -14.9ppProvisional P* hit 45.1% | DraftKings -150 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | +8.8ppProvisional P* hit 54.9% | DraftKings +117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | -15.5ppProvisional P* hit 45.1% | FanDuel -154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 54.9% | FanDuel +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 1.05 | +1.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.9% | DraftKings -176 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 1.05 | -6.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.1% | DraftKings +138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 1.05 | +0.4ppProvisional P* hit 64.9% | FanDuel -182 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 1.05 | -7.3ppProvisional P* hit 35.1% | FanDuel +136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chase BrownCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 66.5 | 64.93 | -10.9ppProvisional P* hit 41.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chase BrownCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 66.5 | 64.93 | +5.0ppProvisional P* hit 58.5% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chase BrownCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 67.5 | 64.93 | -13.0ppProvisional P* hit 40.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chase BrownCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 67.5 | 64.93 | +6.4ppProvisional P* hit 59.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 45.5 | 33.52 | -31.8ppProvisional P* hit 21.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 45.5 | 33.52 | +26.2ppProvisional P* hit 79.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 45.5 | 33.52 | -32.3ppProvisional P* hit 21.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 45.5 | 33.52 | +25.7ppProvisional P* hit 79.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 33.5 | 21.04 | -39.8ppProvisional P* hit 12.1% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 33.5 | 21.04 | +34.2ppProvisional P* hit 87.9% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 32.5 | 21.04 | -39.7ppProvisional P* hit 13.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WillisMIA · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 32.5 | 21.04 | +33.1ppProvisional P* hit 86.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WrightMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 22.5 | 10.76 | -48.4ppProvisional P* hit 3.3% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WrightMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 22.5 | 10.76 | +42.8ppProvisional P* hit 96.7% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WrightMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 21.5 | 10.76 | -49.0ppProvisional P* hit 4.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WrightMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 21.5 | 10.76 | +42.5ppProvisional P* hit 95.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Samaje PerineCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 14.5 | 15.72 | -2.1ppProvisional P* hit 49.6% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Samaje PerineCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 14.5 | 15.72 | -3.6ppProvisional P* hit 50.4% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Samaje PerineCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 14.5 | 15.72 | -3.6ppProvisional P* hit 49.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Samaje PerineCIN · CIN at MIA | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 14.5 | 15.72 | -2.9ppProvisional P* hit 50.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 8.5 | 12.65 | +18.4ppProvisional P* hit 71.7% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 8.5 | 12.65 | -24.0ppProvisional P* hit 28.3% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 8.5 | 12.65 | +18.4ppProvisional P* hit 71.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Joe BurrowCIN · CIN at MIA | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 8.5 | 12.65 | -24.9ppProvisional P* hit 28.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 42.5 | 43.77 | -6.7ppProvisional P* hit 45.6% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 42.5 | 43.77 | +1.1ppProvisional P* hit 54.4% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 41.5 | 43.77 | -5.8ppProvisional P* hit 47.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 41.5 | 43.77 | -0.8ppProvisional P* hit 52.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 22.87 | -22.9ppProvisional P* hit 29.3% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 22.87 | +17.2ppProvisional P* hit 70.7% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 22.87 | -24.0ppProvisional P* hit 29.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 22.87 | +17.5ppProvisional P* hit 70.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 11.2 | -5.1ppProvisional P* hit 48.4% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.5ppProvisional P* hit 51.6% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 11.2 | -4.9ppProvisional P* hit 48.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 11.2 | -1.7ppProvisional P* hit 51.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.57 | -23.2ppProvisional P* hit 30.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.57 | +17.3ppProvisional P* hit 69.9% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.57 | -24.5ppProvisional P* hit 30.1% | FanDuel -120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik WashingtonMIA · CIN at MIA | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.57 | +17.6ppProvisional P* hit 69.9% | FanDuel -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.1 | -27.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.5% | DraftKings -163 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.1 | +21.6ppProvisional P* hit 65.5% | DraftKings +128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.1 | -28.7ppProvisional P* hit 34.5% | FanDuel -172 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Greg DulcichMIA · CIN at MIA | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.1 | +21.6ppProvisional P* hit 65.5% | FanDuel +128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.15 | -32.4ppProvisional P* hit 31.5% | DraftKings -177 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.15 | +26.5ppProvisional P* hit 68.5% | DraftKings +138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.15 | -32.8ppProvisional P* hit 31.5% | FanDuel -180 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ollie Gordon IIMIA · CIN at MIA | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.15 | +25.7ppProvisional P* hit 68.5% | FanDuel +134 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Samaje PerineCIN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Samaje PerineCIN | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.87 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tanner HudsonCIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.55 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tanner HudsonCIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Mike GesickiCIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 27.21 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Mike GesickiCIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Drew SampleCIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 13.86 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Drew SampleCIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.33 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Tee HigginsCIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 64.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tee HigginsCIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 4.58 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 36.78 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ja'Marr ChaseCIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.45 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chase BrownCIN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 27.29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chase BrownCIN | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Andrei IosivasCIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Andrei IosivasCIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mitchell TinsleyCIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 27.6 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mitchell TinsleyCIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Erick AllCIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Erick AllCIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 24.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Dohnte MeyersCIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.08 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jalen TolbertMIA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.73 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jalen TolbertMIA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.77 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ryan MillerMIA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.38 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ryan MillerMIA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.99 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| De'Von AchaneMIA | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 30.2 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| De'Von AchaneMIA | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| De'Von AchaneMIA | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.83 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jaylen WrightMIA | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.38 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| DJ HermanMIA | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 1.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| DJ HermanMIA | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 20.3 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| DJ HermanMIA | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.66 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Caleb DouglasMIA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 34.33 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Caleb DouglasMIA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Will KacmarekMIA | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Will KacmarekMIA | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.94 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chris BellMIA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chris BellMIA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.51 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 17.6 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kevin Coleman Jr.MIA | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.46 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 41 projection entries without quotes · 2 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
18 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Cincinnati Bengals - Miami Dolphins Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.