PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Cleveland Brownsat
New York Jets
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Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreCLE 21 / NYJ 23.8
Projected total44.8
Projected marginNYJ by 2.8
Pace · expected playsCLE 55.62 / NYJ 56.06
Projected pass rateCLE 55.6% / NYJ 55.4%
TD inventoryCLE 2.28 / NYJ 2.58
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 206.5 | 230.64 | +10.9ppProvisional P* hit 63.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 206.5 | 230.64 | -16.5ppProvisional P* hit 36.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 206.5 | 230.64 | +10.4ppProvisional P* hit 63.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 206.5 | 230.64 | -17.0ppProvisional P* hit 36.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 206.5 | 220.18 | +3.7ppProvisional P* hit 56.7% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 206.5 | 220.18 | -9.4ppProvisional P* hit 43.3% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 203.5 | 220.18 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 59.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 203.5 | 220.18 | -12.2ppProvisional P* hit 41.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.37 | -1.1ppProvisional P* hit 39.9% | DraftKings +144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.37 | -4.8ppProvisional P* hit 60.1% | DraftKings -185 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.37 | -2.8ppProvisional P* hit 39.9% | FanDuel +134 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.37 | -4.2ppProvisional P* hit 60.1% | FanDuel -180 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | -6.6ppProvisional P* hit 33.7% | DraftKings +148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | +0.8ppProvisional P* hit 66.3% | DraftKings -190 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | -8.3ppProvisional P* hit 33.7% | FanDuel +138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | +1.3ppProvisional P* hit 66.3% | FanDuel -186 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Braelon AllenNYJ · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 73.5 | 37.49 | -48.1ppProvisional P* hit 4.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Braelon AllenNYJ · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 73.5 | 37.49 | +42.5ppProvisional P* hit 95.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Braelon AllenNYJ · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 71.5 | 37.49 | -47.8ppProvisional P* hit 5.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Braelon AllenNYJ · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 71.5 | 37.49 | +41.3ppProvisional P* hit 94.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 59.5 | 53.8 | -16.8ppProvisional P* hit 35.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 59.5 | 53.8 | +11.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 59.5 | 53.8 | -17.7ppProvisional P* hit 35.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · CLE at NYJ | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 59.5 | 53.8 | +11.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 29.22 | +2.9ppProvisional P* hit 56.8% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 29.22 | -8.5ppProvisional P* hit 43.2% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 29.22 | -2.3ppProvisional P* hit 50.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 29.22 | -4.2ppProvisional P* hit 49.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 9.55 | -16.4ppProvisional P* hit 36.0% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 9.55 | +10.7ppProvisional P* hit 64.0% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 9.55 | -17.3ppProvisional P* hit 36.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Geno SmithNYJ · CLE at NYJ | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 9.55 | +10.7ppProvisional P* hit 64.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 69.5 | 49.98 | -33.6ppProvisional P* hit 19.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 69.5 | 49.98 | +27.9ppProvisional P* hit 80.5% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 69.5 | 49.98 | -33.8ppProvisional P* hit 19.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 69.5 | 49.98 | +27.3ppProvisional P* hit 80.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 48.5 | 51.36 | -4.6ppProvisional P* hit 47.8% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 48.5 | 51.36 | -1.1ppProvisional P* hit 52.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 47.5 | 51.36 | -3.8ppProvisional P* hit 49.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 47.5 | 51.36 | -2.7ppProvisional P* hit 50.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 41.5 | 43.49 | -5.2ppProvisional P* hit 47.0% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 41.5 | 43.49 | -0.5ppProvisional P* hit 53.0% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 38.5 | 43.49 | -0.5ppProvisional P* hit 52.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 38.5 | 43.49 | -6.1ppProvisional P* hit 47.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 39.11 | -4.3ppProvisional P* hit 48.7% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 39.11 | -1.3ppProvisional P* hit 51.3% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 35.5 | 39.11 | -2.4ppProvisional P* hit 50.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 35.5 | 39.11 | -4.1ppProvisional P* hit 49.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 4.62 | -25.8ppProvisional P* hit 22.3% | DraftKings +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 4.62 | +19.7ppProvisional P* hit 77.7% | DraftKings -138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 4.62 | -23.2ppProvisional P* hit 22.3% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 4.62 | +16.2ppProvisional P* hit 77.7% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.34 | -6.4ppProvisional P* hit 41.9% | DraftKings +107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.34 | +0.5ppProvisional P* hit 58.1% | DraftKings -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.34 | -4.4ppProvisional P* hit 41.9% | FanDuel +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—KC ConcepcionCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.34 | -2.5ppProvisional P* hit 58.1% | FanDuel -154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.96 | -7.5ppProvisional P* hit 36.2% | DraftKings +129 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.96 | +1.6ppProvisional P* hit 63.8% | DraftKings -165 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.96 | -9.7ppProvisional P* hit 36.2% | FanDuel +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · CLE at NYJ | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.96 | +2.6ppProvisional P* hit 63.8% | FanDuel -158 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | -5.0ppProvisional P* hit 41.3% | DraftKings +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 58.7% | DraftKings -149 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | -6.7ppProvisional P* hit 41.3% | FanDuel +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Denzel BostonCLE · CLE at NYJ | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | -0.3ppProvisional P* hit 58.7% | FanDuel -144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Jerry JeudyCLE | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jerry JeudyCLE | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Blake WhiteheartCLE | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.96 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Blake WhiteheartCLE | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jaleel McLaughlinCLE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 5.88 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jaleel McLaughlinCLE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 4.36 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jaleel McLaughlinCLE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Raheim SandersCLE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 7.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Raheim SandersCLE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Raheim SandersCLE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Isaiah BondCLE | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.51 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Isaiah BondCLE | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 27.76 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Quinshon JudkinsCLE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Sterling ShepardNYJ | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.89 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Sterling ShepardNYJ | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.64 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jelani WoodsNYJ | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.78 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jelani WoodsNYJ | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jeremy RuckertNYJ | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jeremy RuckertNYJ | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.51 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Breece HallNYJ | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 50.3 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Breece HallNYJ | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.73 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Breece HallNYJ | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.82 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Isaiah WilliamsNYJ | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 23.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Isaiah WilliamsNYJ | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Braelon AllenNYJ | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.48 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Braelon AllenNYJ | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Adonai MitchellNYJ | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 43 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Adonai MitchellNYJ | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.56 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Arian SmithNYJ | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.91 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Arian SmithNYJ | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.6 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mason TaylorNYJ | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mason TaylorNYJ | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kenyon SadiqNYJ | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 30.63 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kenyon SadiqNYJ | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.67 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Omar Cooper Jr.NYJ | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.67 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 37 projection entries without quotes · 2 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
13 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Cleveland Browns - New York Jets Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.