PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Denver Broncosat
Los Angeles Chargers
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Denver Broncos—Los Angeles Chargers—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreDEN 21.3 / LAC 20.8
Projected total42.1
Projected marginDEN by 0.5
Pace · expected playsDEN 56.8 / LAC 60.15
Projected pass rateDEN 57.7% / LAC 52.6%
TD inventoryDEN 2.31 / LAC 2.26
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 220.5 | 214.76 | -10.1ppProvisional P* hit 42.5% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 220.5 | 214.76 | +4.5ppProvisional P* hit 57.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 223.5 | 214.76 | -12.9ppProvisional P* hit 40.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 223.5 | 214.76 | +6.4ppProvisional P* hit 59.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 199.5 | 219.39 | +8.4ppProvisional P* hit 61.4% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 199.5 | 219.39 | -14.0ppProvisional P* hit 38.6% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 200.5 | 219.39 | +7.4ppProvisional P* hit 60.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 200.5 | 219.39 | -13.9ppProvisional P* hit 39.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.27 | -12.3ppProvisional P* hit 36.2% | DraftKings +106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.27 | +6.3ppProvisional P* hit 63.8% | DraftKings -135 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.27 | -13.3ppProvisional P* hit 36.2% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.27 | +6.1ppProvisional P* hit 63.8% | FanDuel -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.12 | -5.8ppProvisional P* hit 31.0% | DraftKings +172 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.12 | +0.1ppProvisional P* hit 69.0% | DraftKings -222 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.12 | -5.5ppProvisional P* hit 31.0% | FanDuel +174 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.12 | -1.5ppProvisional P* hit 69.0% | FanDuel -240 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—J.K. DobbinsDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 35.97 | -34.9ppProvisional P* hit 17.7% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—J.K. DobbinsDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 35.97 | +29.2ppProvisional P* hit 82.3% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—J.K. DobbinsDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 35.97 | -35.5ppProvisional P* hit 17.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—J.K. DobbinsDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 35.97 | +29.0ppProvisional P* hit 82.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Omarion HamptonLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 38.5 | 57.63 | +19.2ppProvisional P* hit 72.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Omarion HamptonLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 38.5 | 57.63 | -24.8ppProvisional P* hit 28.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Omarion HamptonLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 57.63 | +20.3ppProvisional P* hit 73.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Omarion HamptonLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 57.63 | -26.8ppProvisional P* hit 26.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keaton MitchellLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 31.5 | 31.18 | -10.5ppProvisional P* hit 42.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keaton MitchellLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 31.5 | 31.18 | +4.8ppProvisional P* hit 57.5% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keaton MitchellLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 32.5 | 31.18 | -13.2ppProvisional P* hit 40.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keaton MitchellLAC · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 32.5 | 31.18 | +6.6ppProvisional P* hit 59.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 21.23 | -26.0ppProvisional P* hit 26.6% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 21.23 | +20.4ppProvisional P* hit 73.4% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 21.23 | -21.0ppProvisional P* hit 32.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Justin HerbertLAC · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 21.23 | +14.4ppProvisional P* hit 67.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 15.63 | -22.6ppProvisional P* hit 30.4% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 15.63 | +16.9ppProvisional P* hit 69.6% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 15.63 | -22.8ppProvisional P* hit 30.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 15.63 | +16.3ppProvisional P* hit 69.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 14.5 | 10.76 | -30.2ppProvisional P* hit 21.5% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 14.5 | 10.76 | +24.6ppProvisional P* hit 78.5% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 14.5 | 10.76 | -31.8ppProvisional P* hit 21.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bo NixDEN · DEN at LAC | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 14.5 | 10.76 | +25.3ppProvisional P* hit 78.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 53.5 | 37.21 | -35.1ppProvisional P* hit 17.5% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 53.5 | 37.21 | +29.5ppProvisional P* hit 82.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 53.5 | 37.21 | -35.8ppProvisional P* hit 17.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 53.5 | 37.21 | +29.3ppProvisional P* hit 82.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 26.4 | -33.2ppProvisional P* hit 19.8% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 26.4 | +27.6ppProvisional P* hit 80.2% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 26.4 | -33.4ppProvisional P* hit 19.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 26.4 | +26.9ppProvisional P* hit 80.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 39.32 | +17.8ppProvisional P* hit 71.5% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 39.32 | -23.4ppProvisional P* hit 28.5% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 39.32 | +18.2ppProvisional P* hit 71.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 39.32 | -24.8ppProvisional P* hit 28.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 19.5 | 9.96 | -47.6ppProvisional P* hit 4.8% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 19.5 | 9.96 | +42.0ppProvisional P* hit 95.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 19.5 | 9.96 | -48.5ppProvisional P* hit 4.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 19.5 | 9.96 | +42.0ppProvisional P* hit 95.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 16.5 | 17.94 | -3.8ppProvisional P* hit 49.9% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 16.5 | 17.94 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 50.1% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 17.5 | 17.94 | -8.0ppProvisional P* hit 45.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 17.5 | 17.94 | +1.4ppProvisional P* hit 54.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 14.21 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 59.4% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 14.21 | -11.3ppProvisional P* hit 40.6% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 13.5 | 14.21 | -5.9ppProvisional P* hit 47.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 13.5 | 14.21 | -0.6ppProvisional P* hit 52.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | -27.5ppProvisional P* hit 23.9% | DraftKings -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | +21.5ppProvisional P* hit 76.1% | DraftKings -120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | -29.3ppProvisional P* hit 23.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.19 | +22.8ppProvisional P* hit 76.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 4.66 | -0.7ppProvisional P* hit 61.7% | DraftKings -166 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 4.66 | -5.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.3% | DraftKings +130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 4.66 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 61.7% | FanDuel -174 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—RJ HarveyDEN · DEN at LAC | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 4.66 | -5.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.3% | FanDuel +130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.23 | -27.9ppProvisional P* hit 20.4% | DraftKings +107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.23 | +21.8ppProvisional P* hit 79.6% | DraftKings -137 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.23 | -29.1ppProvisional P* hit 20.4% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Courtland SuttonDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.23 | +22.0ppProvisional P* hit 79.6% | FanDuel -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | -23.5ppProvisional P* hit 19.8% | DraftKings +131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | +17.5ppProvisional P* hit 80.2% | DraftKings -168 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | -24.8ppProvisional P* hit 19.8% | FanDuel +124 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Evan EngramDEN · DEN at LAC | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | +17.8ppProvisional P* hit 80.2% | FanDuel -166 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 0.71 | -37.2ppProvisional P* hit 16.5% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 0.71 | +31.1ppProvisional P* hit 83.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 0.71 | -36.8ppProvisional P* hit 16.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Troy FranklinDEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 0.71 | +30.2ppProvisional P* hit 83.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | -13.2ppProvisional P* hit 33.1% | DraftKings +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | +7.2ppProvisional P* hit 66.9% | DraftKings -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | -15.4ppProvisional P* hit 33.1% | FanDuel +106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · DEN at LAC | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.2 | +8.6ppProvisional P* hit 66.9% | FanDuel -140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.37 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| J.K. DobbinsDEN | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Adam TrautmanDEN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Adam TrautmanDEN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.86 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Tyler BadieDEN | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 4.96 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tyler BadieDEN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tyler BadieDEN | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Nate AdkinsDEN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 16.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Nate AdkinsDEN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Pat BryantDEN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Pat BryantDEN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.58 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jonah ColemanDEN | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 29.06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jonah ColemanDEN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.78 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jonah ColemanDEN | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.82 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| David NjokuLAC | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 25.45 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| David NjokuLAC | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingLAC | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Marquez Valdes-ScantlingLAC | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Charlie KolarLAC | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 19.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Charlie KolarLAC | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.86 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Keaton MitchellLAC | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.52 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Keaton MitchellLAC | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.68 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Quentin JohnstonLAC | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 22.81 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Quentin JohnstonLAC | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Derius DavisLAC | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Derius DavisLAC | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.47 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kimani VidalLAC | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 13.35 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kimani VidalLAC | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.6 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kimani VidalLAC | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.3 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ladd McConkeyLAC | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 25.69 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ladd McConkeyLAC | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Oronde Gadsden IILAC | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.98 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Oronde Gadsden IILAC | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Omarion HamptonLAC | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Omarion HamptonLAC | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.72 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tre HarrisLAC | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 33.27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tre HarrisLAC | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.52 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Brenen ThompsonLAC | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.39 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Brenen ThompsonLAC | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.57 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 41 projection entries without quotes · 3 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
26 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Denver Broncos - Los Angeles Chargers Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.