PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Detroit Lionsat
Arizona Cardinals
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Detroit Lions—Arizona Cardinals—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreDET 24.9 / ARI 23.4
Projected total48.3
Projected marginDET by 1.5
Pace · expected playsDET 60.83 / ARI 64.71
Projected pass rateDET 58.4% / ARI 61.1%
TD inventoryDET 2.70 / ARI 2.54
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 279.5 | 276.62 | -7.8ppProvisional P* hit 45.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 279.5 | 276.62 | +2.1ppProvisional P* hit 55.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 280.5 | 276.62 | -8.8ppProvisional P* hit 44.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 280.5 | 276.62 | +2.3ppProvisional P* hit 55.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 269.5 | 245.33 | -20.5ppProvisional P* hit 32.1% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 269.5 | 245.33 | +14.8ppProvisional P* hit 67.9% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 266.5 | 245.33 | -19.5ppProvisional P* hit 33.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 266.5 | 245.33 | +13.0ppProvisional P* hit 66.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | -22.0ppProvisional P* hit 18.9% | DraftKings +145 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | +16.1ppProvisional P* hit 81.1% | DraftKings -186 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | -20.5ppProvisional P* hit 18.9% | FanDuel +154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.49 | +13.4ppProvisional P* hit 81.1% | FanDuel -210 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | -15.4ppProvisional P* hit 43.1% | DraftKings -141 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | +9.5ppProvisional P* hit 56.9% | DraftKings +111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | -13.8ppProvisional P* hit 43.1% | FanDuel -132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | +6.9ppProvisional P* hit 56.9% | FanDuel +100 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 93.5 | 94.18 | -8.7ppProvisional P* hit 43.9% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 93.5 | 94.18 | +3.3ppProvisional P* hit 56.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 90.5 | 94.18 | -6.8ppProvisional P* hit 46.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 90.5 | 94.18 | +0.3ppProvisional P* hit 53.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 46.5 | 53.9 | +1.9ppProvisional P* hit 54.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 46.5 | 53.9 | -7.6ppProvisional P* hit 45.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 45.5 | 53.9 | +3.1ppProvisional P* hit 56.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 45.5 | 53.9 | -9.6ppProvisional P* hit 43.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 25.5 | 27.26 | -4.7ppProvisional P* hit 48.6% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 25.5 | 27.26 | -0.9ppProvisional P* hit 51.4% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 25.5 | 27.26 | -4.7ppProvisional P* hit 48.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 25.5 | 27.26 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 51.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 7.5 | 13.06 | +27.4ppProvisional P* hit 80.0% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 7.5 | 13.06 | -33.0ppProvisional P* hit 20.0% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 13.06 | +32.6ppProvisional P* hit 85.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacoby BrissettARI · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 13.06 | -39.1ppProvisional P* hit 14.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 6.32 | +46.1ppProvisional P* hit 100.0% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 6.32 | -51.7ppProvisional P* hit 0.0% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 6.32 | +46.7ppProvisional P* hit 100.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jared GoffDET · DET at ARI | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 6.32 | -53.2ppProvisional P* hit 0.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 80.5 | 67.82 | -22.2ppProvisional P* hit 30.2% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 80.5 | 67.82 | +16.5ppProvisional P* hit 69.8% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 78.5 | 67.82 | -21.2ppProvisional P* hit 32.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 78.5 | 67.82 | +14.6ppProvisional P* hit 67.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 80.5 | 76.83 | -13.3ppProvisional P* hit 39.7% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 80.5 | 76.83 | +7.7ppProvisional P* hit 60.3% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 80.5 | 76.83 | -13.6ppProvisional P* hit 39.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 80.5 | 76.83 | +7.0ppProvisional P* hit 60.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 74.5 | 78.7 | -5.4ppProvisional P* hit 47.6% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 74.5 | 78.7 | -0.2ppProvisional P* hit 52.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 72.5 | 78.7 | -3.5ppProvisional P* hit 49.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 72.5 | 78.7 | -3.0ppProvisional P* hit 50.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 53.5 | 44.21 | -23.8ppProvisional P* hit 28.8% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 53.5 | 44.21 | +18.1ppProvisional P* hit 71.2% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 44.21 | -21.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 44.21 | +15.1ppProvisional P* hit 68.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 51.59 | -8.9ppProvisional P* hit 43.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 51.59 | +3.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.5% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 51.5 | 51.59 | -9.8ppProvisional P* hit 43.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 51.5 | 51.59 | +3.2ppProvisional P* hit 56.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 43.1 | +1.3ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 43.1 | -6.9ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 43.1 | +0.8ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 43.1 | -7.4ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 34.5 | 25.23 | -32.1ppProvisional P* hit 20.5% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 34.5 | 25.23 | +26.4ppProvisional P* hit 79.5% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 34.5 | 25.23 | -32.8ppProvisional P* hit 20.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 34.5 | 25.23 | +26.2ppProvisional P* hit 79.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 25.5 | 34.49 | +12.8ppProvisional P* hit 65.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 25.5 | 34.49 | -18.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 25.5 | 34.49 | +12.4ppProvisional P* hit 65.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 25.5 | 34.49 | -18.9ppProvisional P* hit 34.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 23.5 | 34.79 | +18.1ppProvisional P* hit 71.4% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 23.5 | 34.79 | -23.8ppProvisional P* hit 28.6% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 23.5 | 34.79 | +18.1ppProvisional P* hit 71.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 23.5 | 34.79 | -24.6ppProvisional P* hit 28.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 17.33 | +18.5ppProvisional P* hit 72.4% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 17.33 | -24.1ppProvisional P* hit 27.6% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 17.33 | +19.1ppProvisional P* hit 72.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 17.33 | -25.7ppProvisional P* hit 27.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 19.16 | +25.5ppProvisional P* hit 77.9% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 19.16 | -31.1ppProvisional P* hit 22.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 11.5 | 19.16 | +24.6ppProvisional P* hit 77.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 11.5 | 19.16 | -31.1ppProvisional P* hit 22.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 7.5 | 8.5 | -4.2ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | DraftKings -140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 7.5 | 8.5 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | DraftKings +110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 7.5 | 8.5 | -4.9ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | FanDuel -144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trey McBrideARI · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 7.5 | 8.5 | -2.2ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | FanDuel +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 7.5 | 6.42 | -15.1ppProvisional P* hit 33.4% | DraftKings +106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 7.5 | 6.42 | +9.2ppProvisional P* hit 66.6% | DraftKings -135 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 6.42 | -17.8ppProvisional P* hit 43.7% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 6.42 | +10.8ppProvisional P* hit 56.3% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 7 | +1.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.2% | DraftKings -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 7 | -7.5ppProvisional P* hit 38.8% | DraftKings +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 7 | +1.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.2% | FanDuel -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael WilsonARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 7 | -8.4ppProvisional P* hit 38.8% | FanDuel +112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.76 | -12.3ppProvisional P* hit 48.0% | DraftKings -152 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.76 | +6.3ppProvisional P* hit 52.0% | DraftKings +119 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.76 | -12.6ppProvisional P* hit 48.0% | FanDuel -154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Sam LaPortaDET · DET at ARI | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.76 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 52.0% | FanDuel +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.53 | -10.4ppProvisional P* hit 44.8% | DraftKings -123 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.53 | +4.5ppProvisional P* hit 55.2% | DraftKings -103 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.53 | -12.8ppProvisional P* hit 44.8% | FanDuel -136 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jahmyr GibbsDET · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.53 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 55.2% | FanDuel +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.47 | -13.4ppProvisional P* hit 43.5% | DraftKings -132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.47 | +7.5ppProvisional P* hit 56.5% | DraftKings +104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.47 | -14.5ppProvisional P* hit 43.5% | FanDuel -138 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameson WilliamsDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.47 | +7.5ppProvisional P* hit 56.5% | FanDuel +104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.87 | -29.5ppProvisional P* hit 29.0% | DraftKings -141 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.87 | +23.4ppProvisional P* hit 71.0% | DraftKings +110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.87 | -30.0ppProvisional P* hit 29.0% | FanDuel -144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.87 | +22.9ppProvisional P* hit 71.0% | FanDuel +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.32 | -9.8ppProvisional P* hit 39.7% | DraftKings +102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.32 | +3.8ppProvisional P* hit 60.3% | DraftKings -130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.32 | -10.8ppProvisional P* hit 39.7% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.32 | +3.8ppProvisional P* hit 60.3% | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.44 | +12.1ppProvisional P* hit 61.4% | DraftKings +103 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.44 | -18.1ppProvisional P* hit 38.6% | DraftKings -131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.44 | +14.2ppProvisional P* hit 61.4% | FanDuel +112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kendrick BourneARI · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.44 | -21.1ppProvisional P* hit 38.6% | FanDuel -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.34 | -4.6ppProvisional P* hit 40.1% | DraftKings +124 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.34 | -1.3ppProvisional P* hit 59.9% | DraftKings -158 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.34 | -3.0ppProvisional P* hit 40.1% | FanDuel +132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaac TeSlaaDET · DET at ARI | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.34 | -4.1ppProvisional P* hit 59.9% | FanDuel -178 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 2.09 | -4.4ppProvisional P* hit 58.2% | DraftKings -167 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 2.09 | -1.4ppProvisional P* hit 41.8% | DraftKings +131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.09 | -5.0ppProvisional P* hit 34.4% | FanDuel +154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler AllgeierARI · DET at ARI | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.09 | -2.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.6% | FanDuel -210 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Brock WrightDET | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.98 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Brock WrightDET | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Sione VakiDET | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 9.67 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Sione VakiDET | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.87 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Sione VakiDET | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jackson MeeksDET | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jackson MeeksDET | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.77 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Bam KnightARI | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 13.51 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Bam KnightARI | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Elijah HigginsARI | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 17.3 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Elijah HigginsARI | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.69 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 11 projection entries without quotes · 0 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
34 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Detroit Lions - Arizona Cardinals Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.