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PREGAME PROJECTIONS

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Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET

Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.

New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.

Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.

Game environment

Frozen pregame inputs
Projected scoreHOU 19.9 / TEN 20.7
Projected total40.6
Projected marginTEN by 0.8
Pace · expected playsHOU 59.69 / TEN 55.35
Projected pass rateHOU 58.2% / TEN 57.4%
TD inventoryHOU 2.16 / TEN 2.25

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Player Props

Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Rank / playerPositionMarket / sideLineGameDay ProjectionEdge*Book / American oddsLive / finalTrackStatus / evidence
1C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsOVER · archived quote231.5265.6Quote projection 266.5 · DIFF+14.9ppProvisional P* hit 67.5%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
2C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsUNDER · archived quote231.5265.6Quote projection 266.5 · DIFF-20.3ppProvisional P* hit 32.5%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
3Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsOVER · archived quote189.5209.1Quote projection 209.6 · DIFF+9.3ppProvisional P* hit 61.9%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
4Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsUNDER · archived quote189.5209.1Quote projection 209.6 · DIFF-15.0ppProvisional P* hit 38.1%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
5C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsOVER · archived quote1.51.2-12.3ppProvisional P* hit 34.0%
Archived proxyP 34.0% · edge -12.8pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings +116—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
6C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsUNDER · archived quote1.51.2+6.2ppProvisional P* hit 66.0%
Archived proxyP 66.0% · edge +6.6pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -149—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
7Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsOVER · archived quote0.51.2+8.1ppProvisional P* hit 70.9%
Archived proxyP 70.0% · edge +7.5pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -169—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
8Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsUNDER · archived quote0.51.2-14.0ppProvisional P* hit 29.1%
Archived proxyP 30.0% · edge -13.5pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings +132—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
9Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · archived quote48.556.1Quote projection 54.5 · DIFF+1.9ppProvisional P* hit 54.5%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
10Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · archived quote48.556.1Quote projection 54.5 · DIFF-7.6ppProvisional P* hit 45.5%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
11Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote5.56-1.4ppProvisional P* hit 50.0%
Archived proxyP 46.0% · edge -5.3pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -106—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
12Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote5.56-4.6ppProvisional P* hit 50.0%
Archived proxyP 54.0% · edge -0.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -120—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
13Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote4.56.7+15.8ppProvisional P* hit 69.9%
Archived proxyP 62.0% · edge +8.3pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -118—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
14Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote4.56.7-21.9ppProvisional P* hit 30.1%
Archived proxyP 38.0% · edge -14.4pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -108—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
15Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote3.54.5+0.9ppProvisional P* hit 59.3%
Archived proxyP 54.0% · edge -4.1pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -140—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
16Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote3.54.5-7.1ppProvisional P* hit 40.7%
Archived proxyP 46.0% · edge -2.1pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings +109—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
17Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote77.571.5Quote projection 71.3 · DIFF-15.5ppProvisional P* hit 37.1%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
18Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote77.571.5Quote projection 71.3 · DIFF+9.8ppProvisional P* hit 62.9%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
19Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote50.577.9Quote projection 77.7 · DIFF+21.2ppProvisional P* hit 73.8%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
20Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote50.577.9Quote projection 77.7 · DIFF-26.6ppProvisional P* hit 26.2%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
21Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote34.543.5+8.3ppProvisional P* hit 60.9%
Archived proxyP 56.0% · edge +3.0pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
22Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote34.543.5-14.0ppProvisional P* hit 39.1%
Archived proxyP 44.0% · edge -8.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsOVER · market side239.5265.63+9.4ppProvisional P* hit 62.7%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsUNDER · market side239.5265.63-15.9ppProvisional P* hit 37.3%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsOVER · market side190.5209.13+7.9ppProvisional P* hit 61.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass yardsUNDER · market side190.5209.13-14.4ppProvisional P* hit 38.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsOVER · market side1.51.21-14.1ppProvisional P* hit 34.0%FanDuel +108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsUNDER · market side1.51.21+7.0ppProvisional P* hit 66.0%FanDuel -144—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsOVER · market side0.51.23+9.1ppProvisional P* hit 70.9%FanDuel -162—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBPass TDsUNDER · market side0.51.23-16.0ppProvisional P* hit 29.1%FanDuel +122—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side50.556.07-1.8ppProvisional P* hit 51.5%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side50.556.07-4.7ppProvisional P* hit 48.5%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side48.543.3-18.0ppProvisional P* hit 34.6%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side48.543.3+12.4ppProvisional P* hit 65.4%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side46.543.3-15.5ppProvisional P* hit 37.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side46.543.3+8.9ppProvisional P* hit 62.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side29.528.8-10.2ppProvisional P* hit 41.5%DraftKings -107—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side29.528.8+4.6ppProvisional P* hit 58.5%DraftKings -117—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side28.528.8-9.1ppProvisional P* hit 44.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side28.528.8+2.6ppProvisional P* hit 55.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side13.514.71-2.8ppProvisional P* hit 50.0%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side13.514.71-2.8ppProvisional P* hit 50.0%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsOVER · market side14.514.71-8.8ppProvisional P* hit 44.5%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side14.514.71+2.3ppProvisional P* hit 55.5%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsOVER · market side10.512.79+6.7ppProvisional P* hit 58.4%DraftKings -107—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsUNDER · market side10.512.79-12.5ppProvisional P* hit 41.6%DraftKings -118—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsOVER · market side9.512.79+12.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsUNDER · market side9.512.79-18.6ppProvisional P* hit 34.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsOVER · market side10.514.14+12.5ppProvisional P* hit 65.4%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsUNDER · market side10.514.14-18.2ppProvisional P* hit 34.6%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsOVER · market side10.514.14+12.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cam WardTEN · HOU at TEN
QBRush yardsUNDER · market side10.514.14-18.6ppProvisional P* hit 34.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side79.571.52-18.1ppProvisional P* hit 35.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side79.571.52+11.6ppProvisional P* hit 64.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side50.577.93+20.5ppProvisional P* hit 73.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side50.577.93-27.0ppProvisional P* hit 26.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsOVER · market side37.537.66-9.4ppProvisional P* hit 43.7%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsUNDER · market side37.537.66+3.7ppProvisional P* hit 56.3%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsOVER · market side37.537.66-9.6ppProvisional P* hit 43.7%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsUNDER · market side37.537.66+3.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.3%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side32.543.52+11.7ppProvisional P* hit 65.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side32.543.52-18.3ppProvisional P* hit 35.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side26.522.84-20.2ppProvisional P* hit 31.9%DraftKings -109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side26.522.84+14.6ppProvisional P* hit 68.1%DraftKings -115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side25.522.84-18.4ppProvisional P* hit 34.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side25.522.84+11.9ppProvisional P* hit 65.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side18.525.32+14.5ppProvisional P* hit 66.4%DraftKings -108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side18.525.32-20.2ppProvisional P* hit 33.6%DraftKings -116—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side18.525.32+13.2ppProvisional P* hit 66.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side18.525.32-19.7ppProvisional P* hit 33.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsOVER · market side18.521.63+3.2ppProvisional P* hit 55.4%DraftKings -109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsUNDER · market side18.521.63-8.8ppProvisional P* hit 44.6%DraftKings -115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsOVER · market side17.521.63+6.2ppProvisional P* hit 59.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TERec yardsUNDER · market side17.521.63-12.7ppProvisional P* hit 40.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side16.523.17+14.8ppProvisional P* hit 68.1%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side16.523.17-20.5ppProvisional P* hit 31.9%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side17.523.17+11.0ppProvisional P* hit 64.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side17.523.17-17.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side14.537.81+40.4ppProvisional P* hit 93.0%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side14.537.81-46.1ppProvisional P* hit 7.0%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side15.537.81+38.3ppProvisional P* hit 91.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side15.537.81-44.8ppProvisional P* hit 8.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side10.513.48+9.5ppProvisional P* hit 62.1%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side10.513.48-15.2ppProvisional P* hit 37.9%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side9.513.48+15.5ppProvisional P* hit 68.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side9.513.48-22.0ppProvisional P* hit 31.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side9.516.01+25.4ppProvisional P* hit 78.4%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side9.516.01-31.0ppProvisional P* hit 21.6%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsOVER · market side8.516.01+30.1ppProvisional P* hit 83.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side8.516.01-36.7ppProvisional P* hit 16.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side8.511.44+11.9ppProvisional P* hit 65.4%DraftKings -115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side8.511.44-17.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.6%DraftKings -109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side7.511.44+19.9ppProvisional P* hit 73.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side7.511.44-26.4ppProvisional P* hit 26.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side8.520.33+37.8ppProvisional P* hit 91.1%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side8.520.33-43.5ppProvisional P* hit 8.9%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side8.520.33+37.8ppProvisional P* hit 91.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side8.520.33-44.4ppProvisional P* hit 8.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side7.510.2+13.9ppProvisional P* hit 66.0%DraftKings -109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side7.510.2-19.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.0%DraftKings -115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsOVER · market side7.510.2+12.8ppProvisional P* hit 66.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side7.510.2-19.3ppProvisional P* hit 34.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side5.55.95-4.9ppProvisional P* hit 50.0%FanDuel -122—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side5.55.95-1.9ppProvisional P* hit 50.0%FanDuel -108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side4.56.69+13.0ppProvisional P* hit 69.9%FanDuel -132—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Carnell TateTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side4.56.69-19.9ppProvisional P* hit 30.1%FanDuel +100—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsOVER · market side4.53.58-17.7ppProvisional P* hit 30.2%DraftKings +109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsUNDER · market side4.53.58+11.8ppProvisional P* hit 69.8%DraftKings -138—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsOVER · market side4.53.58-15.3ppProvisional P* hit 30.2%FanDuel +120—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsUNDER · market side4.53.58+8.3ppProvisional P* hit 69.8%FanDuel -160—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side3.54.48+0.2ppProvisional P* hit 59.3%FanDuel -144—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side3.54.48-7.3ppProvisional P* hit 40.7%FanDuel +108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsOVER · market side2.52.22-15.5ppProvisional P* hit 37.3%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsUNDER · market side2.52.22+9.4ppProvisional P* hit 62.7%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsOVER · market side2.52.22-15.1ppProvisional P* hit 37.3%FanDuel -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Gunnar HelmTEN · HOU at TEN
TEReceptionsUNDER · market side2.52.22+8.1ppProvisional P* hit 62.7%FanDuel -120—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side2.51.93-17.1ppProvisional P* hit 30.5%DraftKings +110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side2.51.93+11.2ppProvisional P* hit 69.5%DraftKings -140—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side2.51.93-14.1ppProvisional P* hit 30.5%FanDuel +124—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side2.51.93+7.1ppProvisional P* hit 69.5%FanDuel -166—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.26-28.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.0%DraftKings -177—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.26+23.0ppProvisional P* hit 65.0%DraftKings +138—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.26-29.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.0%FanDuel -182—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.26+22.6ppProvisional P* hit 65.0%FanDuel +136—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.69-11.5ppProvisional P* hit 48.0%DraftKings -147—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.69+5.7ppProvisional P* hit 52.0%DraftKings +116—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.69-9.9ppProvisional P* hit 48.0%FanDuel -138—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.69+2.9ppProvisional P* hit 52.0%FanDuel +104—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.52.31+5.7ppProvisional P* hit 62.8%DraftKings -133—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.52.31-11.8ppProvisional P* hit 37.2%DraftKings +104—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.52.31+7.8ppProvisional P* hit 62.8%FanDuel -122—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tony PollardTEN · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.52.31-14.7ppProvisional P* hit 37.2%FanDuel -108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.65-6.4ppProvisional P* hit 46.8%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.65+0.3ppProvisional P* hit 53.2%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.65-6.4ppProvisional P* hit 46.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Elic AyomanorTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.65-0.1ppProvisional P* hit 53.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.17-22.1ppProvisional P* hit 32.2%DraftKings -119—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.17+16.1ppProvisional P* hit 67.8%DraftKings -107—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.17-19.7ppProvisional P* hit 32.2%FanDuel -108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.17+12.8ppProvisional P* hit 67.8%FanDuel -122—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.52.87+23.9ppProvisional P* hit 72.7%DraftKings +105—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.52.87-29.9ppProvisional P* hit 27.3%DraftKings -134—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.52.87+25.5ppProvisional P* hit 72.7%FanDuel +112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.52.87-32.3ppProvisional P* hit 27.3%FanDuel -148—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.50.98-19.9ppProvisional P* hit 25.7%DraftKings +119—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.50.98+13.8ppProvisional P* hit 74.3%DraftKings -153—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.50.98-21.9ppProvisional P* hit 25.7%FanDuel +110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—David MontgomeryHOU · HOU at TEN
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.50.98+14.9ppProvisional P* hit 74.3%FanDuel -146—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side0.51.3+3.2ppProvisional P* hit 69.7%DraftKings -198—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side0.51.3-9.1ppProvisional P* hit 30.3%DraftKings +154—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsOVER · market side0.51.3+4.4ppProvisional P* hit 69.7%FanDuel -188—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Calvin RidleyTEN · HOU at TEN
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side0.51.3-11.3ppProvisional P* hit 30.3%FanDuel +140—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
Foster MoreauHOUTERec yardsUnavailable14.13UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Foster MoreauHOUTEReceptionsUnavailable1.34UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Brevin JordanHOUTERec yardsUnavailable9.38UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Brevin JordanHOUTEReceptionsUnavailable0.75UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jared WayneHOUWRRec yardsUnavailable22.39UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Jared WayneHOUWRReceptionsUnavailable1.67UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Cade StoverHOUTERec yardsUnavailable8.27UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Cade StoverHOUTEReceptionsUnavailable0.66UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Lewis BondHOUWRRec yardsUnavailable8.91UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Lewis BondHOUWRReceptionsUnavailable0.7UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Daniel BellingerTENTERec yardsUnavailable10.86UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Daniel BellingerTENTEReceptionsUnavailable1UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Chimere DikeTENWRRec yardsUnavailable8.97UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Chimere DikeTENWRReceptionsUnavailable0.75UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Nicholas SingletonTENRBRush yardsUnavailable10.56UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Nicholas SingletonTENRBRec yardsUnavailable2.39UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional

* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.

Data coverage · 16 projection entries without quotes · 0 ATD players without odds

Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.

10 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.

51 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.

Frozen data and source game sheet

Open Houston Texans - Tennessee Titans Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf

Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.

Linked report fingerprint: Verified.

Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.