PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Indianapolis Coltsat
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Indianapolis Colts—Pittsburgh Steelers—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreIND 23.4 / PIT 24.5
Projected total47.9
Projected marginPIT by 1.1
Pace · expected playsIND 58 / PIT 59.48
Projected pass rateIND 54.5% / PIT 62.5%
TD inventoryIND 2.54 / PIT 2.66
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 220.5 | 258.8 | +17.7ppProvisional P* hit 70.5% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 220.5 | 258.8 | -23.1ppProvisional P* hit 29.5% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 222.5 | 258.8 | +16.1ppProvisional P* hit 69.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 222.5 | 258.8 | -22.6ppProvisional P* hit 30.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 211.5 | 202.52 | -13.0ppProvisional P* hit 39.8% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 211.5 | 202.52 | +7.4ppProvisional P* hit 60.2% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 213.5 | 202.52 | -14.9ppProvisional P* hit 38.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 213.5 | 202.52 | +8.4ppProvisional P* hit 61.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -5.1ppProvisional P* hit 46.1% | DraftKings -105 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -1.1ppProvisional P* hit 53.9% | DraftKings -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | -8.0ppProvisional P* hit 46.1% | FanDuel -118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.56 | +1.1ppProvisional P* hit 53.9% | FanDuel -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -0.2ppProvisional P* hit 37.1% | DraftKings +168 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -5.5ppProvisional P* hit 62.9% | DraftKings -217 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -4.2ppProvisional P* hit 37.1% | FanDuel +142 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -3.1ppProvisional P* hit 62.9% | FanDuel -194 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 85.5 | 84.27 | -10.6ppProvisional P* hit 42.2% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 85.5 | 84.27 | +5.0ppProvisional P* hit 57.8% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 86.5 | 84.27 | -12.0ppProvisional P* hit 41.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 86.5 | 84.27 | +5.4ppProvisional P* hit 58.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WarrenPIT · IND at PIT | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 65.5 | 63.25 | -12.7ppProvisional P* hit 40.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jaylen WarrenPIT · IND at PIT | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 65.5 | 63.25 | +6.1ppProvisional P* hit 59.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 8.23 | -25.9ppProvisional P* hit 25.1% | DraftKings -104 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 8.23 | +20.4ppProvisional P* hit 74.9% | DraftKings -120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 8.23 | -28.2ppProvisional P* hit 25.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Daniel JonesIND · IND at PIT | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 8.23 | +21.6ppProvisional P* hit 74.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 2.59 | +45.9ppProvisional P* hit 99.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron RodgersPIT · IND at PIT | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 2.59 | -52.5ppProvisional P* hit 0.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 57.5 | 42.13 | -32.4ppProvisional P* hit 20.6% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 57.5 | 42.13 | +26.8ppProvisional P* hit 79.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 58.5 | 42.13 | -33.7ppProvisional P* hit 19.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 58.5 | 42.13 | +27.2ppProvisional P* hit 80.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 53.5 | 53.22 | -9.9ppProvisional P* hit 42.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 53.5 | 53.22 | +4.2ppProvisional P* hit 57.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 53.5 | 53.22 | -10.3ppProvisional P* hit 42.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 53.5 | 53.22 | +3.8ppProvisional P* hit 57.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 47.5 | 34.89 | -32.7ppProvisional P* hit 20.8% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 47.5 | 34.89 | +27.1ppProvisional P* hit 79.2% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 50.5 | 34.89 | -36.2ppProvisional P* hit 17.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 50.5 | 34.89 | +29.6ppProvisional P* hit 82.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 41.5 | 42.35 | -8.3ppProvisional P* hit 44.9% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 41.5 | 42.35 | +2.7ppProvisional P* hit 55.1% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 41.5 | 42.35 | -8.3ppProvisional P* hit 44.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 41.5 | 42.35 | +1.8ppProvisional P* hit 55.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 31.53 | +1.5ppProvisional P* hit 53.9% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 31.53 | -7.2ppProvisional P* hit 46.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 31.53 | +0.6ppProvisional P* hit 53.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 31.53 | -7.2ppProvisional P* hit 46.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 36.55 | +11.7ppProvisional P* hit 64.5% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 36.55 | -17.3ppProvisional P* hit 35.5% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 36.55 | +11.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 36.55 | -17.8ppProvisional P* hit 35.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 22.5 | 26.31 | +3.0ppProvisional P* hit 55.4% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 22.5 | 26.31 | -8.6ppProvisional P* hit 44.6% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 22.5 | 26.31 | +2.1ppProvisional P* hit 55.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 22.5 | 26.31 | -8.6ppProvisional P* hit 44.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Germie BernardPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 21.64 | +2.2ppProvisional P* hit 55.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Germie BernardPIT · IND at PIT | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 21.64 | -8.7ppProvisional P* hit 44.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 16.5 | 21.11 | +10.2ppProvisional P* hit 61.9% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 16.5 | 21.11 | -15.8ppProvisional P* hit 38.1% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 15.5 | 21.11 | +12.9ppProvisional P* hit 66.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 15.5 | 21.11 | -19.4ppProvisional P* hit 33.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 4.31 | -19.8ppProvisional P* hit 28.5% | DraftKings +107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 4.31 | +13.7ppProvisional P* hit 71.5% | DraftKings -137 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 4.31 | -19.5ppProvisional P* hit 28.5% | FanDuel +108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler WarrenIND · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 4.31 | +12.4ppProvisional P* hit 71.5% | FanDuel -144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.55 | -31.3ppProvisional P* hit 29.6% | DraftKings -156 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.55 | +25.3ppProvisional P* hit 70.4% | DraftKings +122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.55 | -30.1ppProvisional P* hit 29.6% | FanDuel -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh DownsIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.55 | +23.2ppProvisional P* hit 70.4% | FanDuel +112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.06 | -9.8ppProvisional P* hit 37.6% | DraftKings +111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.06 | +3.7ppProvisional P* hit 62.4% | DraftKings -142 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.06 | -9.1ppProvisional P* hit 37.6% | FanDuel +114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DK MetcalfPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.06 | +2.0ppProvisional P* hit 62.4% | FanDuel -152 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | -7.9ppProvisional P* hit 41.3% | DraftKings +103 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | +2.0ppProvisional P* hit 58.7% | DraftKings -131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | -7.2ppProvisional P* hit 41.3% | FanDuel +106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Roman WilsonPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.34 | +0.3ppProvisional P* hit 58.7% | FanDuel -140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.05 | -11.2ppProvisional P* hit 36.0% | DraftKings +112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.05 | +5.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.0% | DraftKings -143 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.05 | -10.3ppProvisional P* hit 36.0% | FanDuel +116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.05 | +3.4ppProvisional P* hit 64.0% | FanDuel -154 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.65 | +3.5ppProvisional P* hit 46.6% | DraftKings +132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.65 | -9.4ppProvisional P* hit 53.4% | DraftKings -169 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.65 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.5% | FanDuel -192 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Keenan AllenIND · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.65 | -5.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.5% | FanDuel +142 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.11 | -19.2ppProvisional P* hit 34.7% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.11 | +13.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.3% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.11 | -17.7ppProvisional P* hit 34.7% | FanDuel -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jonathan TaylorIND · IND at PIT | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.11 | +10.7ppProvisional P* hit 65.3% | FanDuel -120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.19 | -6.4ppProvisional P* hit 36.7% | DraftKings +132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.19 | +0.5ppProvisional P* hit 63.3% | DraftKings -169 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.19 | -8.8ppProvisional P* hit 36.7% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · IND at PIT | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.19 | +1.8ppProvisional P* hit 63.3% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Germie BernardPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | -9.1ppProvisional P* hit 31.9% | FanDuel +144 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Germie BernardPIT · IND at PIT | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | +2.1ppProvisional P* hit 68.1% | FanDuel -194 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Laquon TreadwellIND | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 22.95 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Laquon TreadwellIND | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.94 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ashton DulinIND | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 25.01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ashton DulinIND | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Andrew OgletreeIND | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.24 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Andrew OgletreeIND | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.52 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Alec PierceIND | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 23.85 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Alec PierceIND | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.99 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Seth McGowanIND | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 13.83 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Seth McGowanIND | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.52 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Seth McGowanIND | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Deion BurksIND | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Deion BurksIND | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.68 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Robert TonyanPIT | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.76 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Robert TonyanPIT | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.74 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mason RudolphPIT | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 4.04 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Travis HomerPIT | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 6.48 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Travis HomerPIT | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.37 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Rico DowdlePIT | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 23.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Rico DowdlePIT | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.44 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Rico DowdlePIT | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Michael PittmanPIT | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 28.95 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Michael PittmanPIT | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.37 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ben SkowronekPIT | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ben SkowronekPIT | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.89 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 34.35 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jaylen WarrenPIT | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Lew Nichols IIIPIT | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 4.35 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Lew Nichols IIIPIT | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.43 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 29 projection entries without quotes · 4 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
31 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Indianapolis Colts - Pittsburgh Steelers Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.