PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Las Vegas Raidersat
New England Patriots
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Las Vegas Raiders—New England Patriots—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreLV 24.4 / NE 22.4
Projected total46.8
Projected marginLV by 2.0
Pace · expected playsLV 60.42 / NE 59.05
Projected pass rateLV 55.9% / NE 53.5%
TD inventoryLV 2.65 / NE 2.43
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsOVER · archived quote | 228.5 | 236Quote projection 236.7 · DIFF | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 51.8% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
2Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · archived quote | 228.5 | 236Quote projection 236.7 · DIFF | -4.4ppProvisional P* hit 48.2% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
3Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsOVER · archived quote | 233.5 | 236Quote projection 236.7 · DIFF | -4.9ppProvisional P* hit 48.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
4Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · archived quote | 233.5 | 236Quote projection 236.7 · DIFF | -1.7ppProvisional P* hit 51.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
5Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsOVER · archived quote | 226.5 | 226Quote projection 213.2 · DIFF | -6.5ppProvisional P* hit 46.4% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
6Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · archived quote | 226.5 | 226Quote projection 213.2 · DIFF | +0.8ppProvisional P* hit 53.6% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
7Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsOVER · archived quote | 226.5 | 226Quote projection 213.2 · DIFF | -6.9ppProvisional P* hit 46.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
8Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · archived quote | 226.5 | 226Quote projection 213.2 · DIFF | +0.4ppProvisional P* hit 53.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
9Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsOVER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.2 | -19.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.1%Archived proxyP 32.0% · edge -22.6pp · MATCH · historical comparison only | DraftKings -122 | — | Awaiting statAligned archived quote | |
10Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.2 | +13.7ppProvisional P* hit 64.9%Archived proxyP 68.0% · edge +16.4pp · MATCH · historical comparison only | DraftKings -105 | — | Awaiting statAligned archived quote | |
11Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsOVER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.2 | -16.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.1%Archived proxyP 32.0% · edge -19.5pp · MATCH · historical comparison only | FanDuel -108 | — | Awaiting statAligned archived quote | |
12Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.2 | +10.0ppProvisional P* hit 64.9%Archived proxyP 68.0% · edge +12.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only | FanDuel -122 | — | Awaiting statAligned archived quote | |
13Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsOVER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.4Quote projection 2.4 · DIFF | -4.0ppProvisional P* hit 41.2% | DraftKings +121 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
14Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.4Quote projection 2.4 · DIFF | -2.0ppProvisional P* hit 58.8% | DraftKings -155 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
15Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsOVER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.4Quote projection 2.4 · DIFF | -5.1ppProvisional P* hit 41.2% | FanDuel +116 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
16Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · archived quote | 1.5 | 1.4Quote projection 2.4 · DIFF | -1.9ppProvisional P* hit 58.8% | FanDuel -154 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
17Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsOVER · archived quote | 59.5 | 68Quote projection 62.9 · DIFF | +0.4ppProvisional P* hit 53.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
18Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · archived quote | 59.5 | 68Quote projection 62.9 · DIFF | -7.0ppProvisional P* hit 46.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
19Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 6.5 | 5.4Quote projection 4.5 · DIFF | -24.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.8% | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
20Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · archived quote | 6.5 | 5.4Quote projection 4.5 · DIFF | +17.7ppProvisional P* hit 68.2% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
21Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 3.5 | 2.8Quote projection 3.6 · DIFF | -29.0ppProvisional P* hit 30.7% | FanDuel -148 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
22Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · archived quote | 3.5 | 2.8Quote projection 3.6 · DIFF | +22.1ppProvisional P* hit 69.3% | FanDuel +112 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
23Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 3.5 | 2.3Quote projection 3.2 · DIFF | -36.0ppProvisional P* hit 22.3% | FanDuel -140 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
24Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · archived quote | 3.5 | 2.3Quote projection 3.2 · DIFF | +29.1ppProvisional P* hit 77.7% | FanDuel +106 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
25Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 3.5 | 3.6Quote projection 4.9 · DIFF | -7.4ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
26Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · archived quote | 3.5 | 3.6Quote projection 4.9 · DIFF | +0.9ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
27Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 3.5 | 2.9Quote projection 3.9 · DIFF | -18.8ppProvisional P* hit 34.0% | FanDuel -112 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
28Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · archived quote | 3.5 | 2.9Quote projection 3.9 · DIFF | +11.9ppProvisional P* hit 66.0% | FanDuel -118 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
29Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | ReceptionsOVER · archived quote | 3.5 | 3.4Quote projection 4.6 · DIFF | -7.9ppProvisional P* hit 42.6% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
30Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · archived quote | 3.5 | 3.4Quote projection 4.6 · DIFF | +0.8ppProvisional P* hit 57.4% | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
31Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 72.5 | 62.5Quote projection 55.2 · DIFF | -21.4ppProvisional P* hit 31.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
32Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · archived quote | 72.5 | 62.5Quote projection 55.2 · DIFF | +14.8ppProvisional P* hit 68.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
33Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 51.5 | 37Quote projection 54.7 · DIFF | -33.9ppProvisional P* hit 19.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
34Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · archived quote | 51.5 | 37Quote projection 54.7 · DIFF | +27.4ppProvisional P* hit 80.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
35Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 42.5 | 37.9Quote projection 55.2 · DIFF | -18.9ppProvisional P* hit 34.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
36Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · archived quote | 42.5 | 37.9Quote projection 55.2 · DIFF | +12.4ppProvisional P* hit 65.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
37Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 37.5 | 25.1Quote projection 35.3 · DIFF | -38.0ppProvisional P* hit 15.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
38Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · archived quote | 37.5 | 25.1Quote projection 35.3 · DIFF | +31.4ppProvisional P* hit 84.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
39Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 28.5 | 33.3Quote projection 44.4 · DIFF | +2.1ppProvisional P* hit 55.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
40Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · archived quote | 28.5 | 33.3Quote projection 44.4 · DIFF | -8.6ppProvisional P* hit 44.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
41Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rec yardsOVER · archived quote | 21.5 | 32.3Quote projection 42.9 · DIFF | +18.9ppProvisional P* hit 72.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
42Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · archived quote | 21.5 | 32.3Quote projection 42.9 · DIFF | -25.5ppProvisional P* hit 27.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings | |
—Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 59.5 | 68.03 | +1.3ppProvisional P* hit 53.7% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 59.5 | 68.03 | -7.0ppProvisional P* hit 46.3% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 31.5 | 24.74 | -27.4ppProvisional P* hit 25.2% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 31.5 | 24.74 | +21.7ppProvisional P* hit 74.8% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 31.5 | 24.74 | -28.1ppProvisional P* hit 25.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Drake MayeNE · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 31.5 | 24.74 | +21.5ppProvisional P* hit 74.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 22.5 | 28.31 | +7.9ppProvisional P* hit 60.7% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 22.5 | 28.31 | -13.5ppProvisional P* hit 39.3% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 23.5 | 28.31 | +4.3ppProvisional P* hit 57.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · LV at NE | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 23.5 | 28.31 | -10.8ppProvisional P* hit 42.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 3.28 | +48.2ppProvisional P* hit 99.6% | DraftKings -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 3.28 | -53.8ppProvisional P* hit 0.4% | DraftKings -118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 3.28 | +49.2ppProvisional P* hit 99.6% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kirk CousinsLV · LV at NE | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 3.28 | -55.8ppProvisional P* hit 0.4% | FanDuel -128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 72.5 | 62.48 | -20.5ppProvisional P* hit 31.9% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 72.5 | 62.48 | +14.8ppProvisional P* hit 68.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 53.5 | 36.97 | -35.3ppProvisional P* hit 17.1% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 53.5 | 36.97 | +29.6ppProvisional P* hit 82.9% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 39.5 | 37.85 | -13.5ppProvisional P* hit 40.0% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 39.5 | 37.85 | +7.8ppProvisional P* hit 60.0% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 25.08 | -37.8ppProvisional P* hit 15.3% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 25.08 | +32.1ppProvisional P* hit 84.7% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 30.5 | 33.32 | -1.9ppProvisional P* hit 50.2% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 30.5 | 33.32 | -3.7ppProvisional P* hit 49.8% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 32.27 | +11.1ppProvisional P* hit 63.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 32.27 | -16.7ppProvisional P* hit 36.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 23.5 | 21.84 | -15.2ppProvisional P* hit 37.6% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 23.5 | 21.84 | +9.5ppProvisional P* hit 62.4% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 23.5 | 21.84 | -15.6ppProvisional P* hit 37.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 23.5 | 21.84 | +9.1ppProvisional P* hit 62.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 16.5 | 14.33 | -19.9ppProvisional P* hit 32.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 16.5 | 14.33 | +14.2ppProvisional P* hit 67.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 16.5 | 14.33 | -20.8ppProvisional P* hit 32.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 16.5 | 14.33 | +14.2ppProvisional P* hit 67.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 5.41 | -24.9ppProvisional P* hit 31.8% | DraftKings -131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brock BowersLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 5.41 | +19.0ppProvisional P* hit 68.2% | DraftKings +103 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.77 | -30.1ppProvisional P* hit 30.7% | DraftKings -155 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Romeo DoubsNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.77 | +24.1ppProvisional P* hit 69.3% | DraftKings +121 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.42 | -12.3ppProvisional P* hit 42.6% | DraftKings -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Ashton JeantyLV · LV at NE | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.42 | +6.1ppProvisional P* hit 57.4% | DraftKings -105 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.33 | -32.6ppProvisional P* hit 22.3% | DraftKings -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Hunter HenryNE · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.33 | +26.5ppProvisional P* hit 77.7% | DraftKings -105 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.6 | -9.7ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | DraftKings -125 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Michael MayerLV · LV at NE | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.6 | +3.6ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | DraftKings -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.94 | -16.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.0% | DraftKings -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tre TuckerLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.94 | +10.5ppProvisional P* hit 66.0% | DraftKings -125 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | -20.6ppProvisional P* hit 32.0% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | +14.5ppProvisional P* hit 68.0% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | -21.3ppProvisional P* hit 32.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—DeMario DouglasNE · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.99 | +14.7ppProvisional P* hit 68.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.19 | -22.0ppProvisional P* hit 32.7% | DraftKings -121 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.19 | +15.8ppProvisional P* hit 67.3% | DraftKings -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.19 | -23.8ppProvisional P* hit 32.7% | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cody WhiteLV · LV at NE | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.19 | +16.8ppProvisional P* hit 67.3% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Ian ThomasLV | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.45 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ian ThomasLV | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.76 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Dareke YoungLV | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Dareke YoungLV | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jalen NailorLV | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.56 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jalen NailorLV | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.85 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jack BechLV | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 20.33 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jack BechLV | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.91 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Mike Washington Jr.LV | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 5.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Mike Washington Jr.LV | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.38 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Malik BensonLV | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.55 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Malik BensonLV | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.68 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Mack HollinsNE | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 35.2 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Mack HollinsNE | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.92 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| A.J. BrownNE | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 23.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| A.J. BrownNE | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Reggie GilliamNE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 1.57 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Reggie GilliamNE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 16.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Reggie GilliamNE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 35.39 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 22.29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Rhamondre StevensonNE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.32 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tommy DeVitoNE | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 4.68 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kyle WilliamsNE | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kyle WilliamsNE | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Corey KinerNE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 14.96 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Corey KinerNE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 4.31 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Corey KinerNE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Efton Chism IIINE | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.91 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Efton Chism IIINE | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.3 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Lan LarisonNE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Lan LarisonNE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Lan LarisonNE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.12 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 42.13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.28 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| TreVeyon HendersonNE | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.56 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Eli RaridonNE | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Eli RaridonNE | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 38 projection entries without quotes · 3 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
38 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
26 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Las Vegas Raiders - New England Patriots Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.