PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Minnesota Vikingsat
New Orleans Saints
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Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreMIN 25.1 / NO 21.9
Projected total47.0
Projected marginMIN by 3.2
Pace · expected playsMIN 56.77 / NO 64.08
Projected pass rateMIN 49.5% / NO 64.4%
TD inventoryMIN 2.73 / NO 2.38
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 238.5 | 278.07 | +16.6ppProvisional P* hit 69.6% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 238.5 | 278.07 | -22.3ppProvisional P* hit 30.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 237.5 | 278.07 | +16.9ppProvisional P* hit 70.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 237.5 | 278.07 | -23.5ppProvisional P* hit 29.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 213.5 | 185.47 | -27.3ppProvisional P* hit 25.5% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 213.5 | 185.47 | +21.7ppProvisional P* hit 74.5% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 212.5 | 185.47 | -27.1ppProvisional P* hit 26.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 212.5 | 185.47 | +20.6ppProvisional P* hit 73.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | +1.9ppProvisional P* hit 43.0% | DraftKings +143 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | -7.8ppProvisional P* hit 57.0% | DraftKings -184 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | +3.4ppProvisional P* hit 43.0% | FanDuel +152 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.47 | -10.3ppProvisional P* hit 57.0% | FanDuel -205 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -2.1ppProvisional P* hit 36.9% | DraftKings +156 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -3.6ppProvisional P* hit 63.1% | DraftKings -200 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -5.8ppProvisional P* hit 36.9% | FanDuel +134 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 63.1% | FanDuel -180 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 72.5 | 57.95 | -26.6ppProvisional P* hit 26.4% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 72.5 | 57.95 | +21.0ppProvisional P* hit 73.6% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 72.5 | 57.95 | -26.8ppProvisional P* hit 26.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 72.5 | 57.95 | +20.3ppProvisional P* hit 73.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 17.5 | 12.33 | -35.1ppProvisional P* hit 18.2% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 17.5 | 12.33 | +29.4ppProvisional P* hit 81.8% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 17.5 | 12.33 | -35.1ppProvisional P* hit 18.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Kyler MurrayMIN · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 17.5 | 12.33 | +28.5ppProvisional P* hit 81.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 9.5 | 14.62 | +19.9ppProvisional P* hit 73.6% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 9.5 | 14.62 | -25.6ppProvisional P* hit 26.4% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 9.5 | 14.62 | +20.4ppProvisional P* hit 73.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Tyler ShoughNO · MIN at NO | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 9.5 | 14.62 | -26.9ppProvisional P* hit 26.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 80.5 | 87.8 | -2.3ppProvisional P* hit 50.1% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 80.5 | 87.8 | -3.4ppProvisional P* hit 49.9% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 81.5 | 87.8 | -4.1ppProvisional P* hit 49.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 81.5 | 87.8 | -2.4ppProvisional P* hit 50.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 44.5 | 45.09 | -8.4ppProvisional P* hit 44.4% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 44.5 | 45.09 | +2.8ppProvisional P* hit 55.6% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 42.5 | 45.09 | -5.3ppProvisional P* hit 48.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 42.5 | 45.09 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 52.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 35.5 | 46.9 | +11.3ppProvisional P* hit 64.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 35.5 | 46.9 | -16.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 46.9 | +8.9ppProvisional P* hit 62.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 46.9 | -15.5ppProvisional P* hit 37.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 24.66 | +11.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.7% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 24.66 | -16.9ppProvisional P* hit 35.3% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 24.66 | +11.4ppProvisional P* hit 64.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 24.66 | -18.0ppProvisional P* hit 35.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 7.03 | +0.6ppProvisional P* hit 50.3% | DraftKings +101 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 7.03 | -6.7ppProvisional P* hit 49.7% | DraftKings -129 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 6.5 | 7.03 | -1.6ppProvisional P* hit 50.3% | FanDuel -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris OlaveNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 6.5 | 7.03 | -5.3ppProvisional P* hit 49.7% | FanDuel -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.23 | -9.0ppProvisional P* hit 40.3% | DraftKings +103 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.23 | +3.0ppProvisional P* hit 59.7% | DraftKings -131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 4.23 | -8.3ppProvisional P* hit 40.3% | FanDuel +106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Juwan JohnsonNO · MIN at NO | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 4.23 | +1.4ppProvisional P* hit 59.7% | FanDuel -140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 4.32 | +0.1ppProvisional P* hit 57.0% | DraftKings -132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 4.32 | -6.3ppProvisional P* hit 43.0% | DraftKings +103 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 4.32 | +0.5ppProvisional P* hit 57.0% | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Devaughn VeleNO · MIN at NO | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 4.32 | -7.5ppProvisional P* hit 43.0% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.41 | -19.4ppProvisional P* hit 23.9% | DraftKings +131 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.41 | +13.4ppProvisional P* hit 76.1% | DraftKings -168 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.41 | -21.8ppProvisional P* hit 41.7% | FanDuel -174 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Aaron JonesMIN · MIN at NO | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.41 | +14.8ppProvisional P* hit 58.3% | FanDuel +130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Carson WentzMIN | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 7.17 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| T.J. HockensonMIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 47.62 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| T.J. HockensonMIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 4.95 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Josh OliverMIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 20.53 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Josh OliverMIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.73 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jauan JenningsMIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.64 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jauan JenningsMIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.72 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Justin JeffersonMIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 47.88 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Justin JeffersonMIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 4.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jordan MasonMIN | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 41.74 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jordan MasonMIN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.36 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jordan AddisonMIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 38.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jordan AddisonMIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.96 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tai FeltonMIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Tai FeltonMIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.72 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Gavin BartholomewMIN | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.47 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Gavin BartholomewMIN | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Myles PriceMIN | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.2 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Myles PriceMIN | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.91 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Demond ClaiborneMIN | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 7.27 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Demond ClaiborneMIN | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 3.73 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Demond ClaiborneMIN | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Alvin KamaraNO | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 23.19 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Alvin KamaraNO | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 25.62 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Alvin KamaraNO | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Noah FantNO | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 30.2 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Noah FantNO | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Travis EtienneNO | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 29.7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Travis EtienneNO | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Travis EtienneNO | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.51 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kevin Austin Jr.NO | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.1 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kevin Austin Jr.NO | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.76 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Kendre MillerNO | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kendre MillerNO | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.77 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kendre MillerNO | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.15 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Oscar DelpNO | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.92 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Oscar DelpNO | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.75 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Bryce LanceNO | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Bryce LanceNO | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Barion BrownNO | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.43 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| CJ DonaldsonNO | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 6.73 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| CJ DonaldsonNO | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 6.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| CJ DonaldsonNO | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.56 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 43 projection entries without quotes · 1 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
17 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Minnesota Vikings - New Orleans Saints Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.