PREGAME PROJECTIONS
New York Giantsat
Washington Commanders
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New York Giants—
Washington Commanders—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scoreNYG 22.9 / WAS 22.3
Projected total45.2
Projected marginNYG by 0.6
Pace · expected playsNYG 56.81 / WAS 60.74
Projected pass rateNYG 52.3% / WAS 56.2%
TD inventoryNYG 2.49 / WAS 2.42
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 199.5 | 196.22 | -8.6ppProvisional P* hit 44.0% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 199.5 | 196.22 | +3.1ppProvisional P* hit 56.0% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 201.5 | 196.22 | -10.8ppProvisional P* hit 42.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 201.5 | 196.22 | +4.3ppProvisional P* hit 57.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 198.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings -112 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 198.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings -112 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 198.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel -114 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 198.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel -114 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings +130 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | DraftKings -167 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel +118 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | Unavailable | Unavailable | FanDuel -158 | — | Unavailable | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Market side only · probability unavailable |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.24 | -1.6ppProvisional P* hit 35.0% | DraftKings +173 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.24 | -4.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.0% | DraftKings -224 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.24 | -1.8ppProvisional P* hit 35.0% | FanDuel +172 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.24 | -5.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.0% | FanDuel -235 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 57.5 | 49.71 | -21.1ppProvisional P* hit 32.1% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 57.5 | 49.71 | +15.5ppProvisional P* hit 67.9% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 56.5 | 49.71 | -19.8ppProvisional P* hit 33.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 56.5 | 49.71 | +13.3ppProvisional P* hit 66.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 55.5 | 29.88 | -46.6ppProvisional P* hit 6.2%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 55.5 | 29.88 | +41.0ppProvisional P* hit 93.8%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 55.5 | 29.88 | -47.1ppProvisional P* hit 6.2%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 55.5 | 29.88 | +40.5ppProvisional P* hit 93.8%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 30.5 | 18.75 | -41.9ppProvisional P* hit 11.1%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 30.5 | 18.75 | +36.3ppProvisional P* hit 88.9%Scenario only · excluded | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 30.5 | 18.75 | -42.1ppProvisional P* hit 11.1%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jayden DanielsWAS · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 30.5 | 18.75 | +35.6ppProvisional P* hit 88.9%Scenario only · excluded | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Najee HarrisNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 29.5 | 25.27 | -20.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.5% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Najee HarrisNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 29.5 | 25.27 | +15.1ppProvisional P* hit 68.5% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Najee HarrisNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 28.5 | 25.27 | -19.2ppProvisional P* hit 34.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Najee HarrisNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 28.5 | 25.27 | +12.7ppProvisional P* hit 66.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.93 | +22.9ppProvisional P* hit 74.8% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.93 | -28.5ppProvisional P* hit 25.2% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 3.93 | +24.3ppProvisional P* hit 74.8% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NYG at WAS | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 3.93 | -31.0ppProvisional P* hit 25.2% | FanDuel -128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 54.5 | 48.15 | -19.1ppProvisional P* hit 33.8% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 54.5 | 48.15 | +13.4ppProvisional P* hit 66.2% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 54.5 | 48.15 | -19.5ppProvisional P* hit 33.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 54.5 | 48.15 | +13.0ppProvisional P* hit 66.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 40.5 | 55.49 | +13.3ppProvisional P* hit 66.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 40.5 | 55.49 | -18.9ppProvisional P* hit 33.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 40.5 | 55.49 | +13.3ppProvisional P* hit 66.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 40.5 | 55.49 | -19.8ppProvisional P* hit 33.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 26.63 | -12.4ppProvisional P* hit 40.8% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 26.63 | +6.8ppProvisional P* hit 59.2% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 27.5 | 26.63 | -12.4ppProvisional P* hit 40.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 27.5 | 26.63 | +5.9ppProvisional P* hit 59.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 19.56 | -4.5ppProvisional P* hit 47.7% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 19.56 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 52.3% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 18.5 | 19.56 | -5.6ppProvisional P* hit 47.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 18.5 | 19.56 | -1.0ppProvisional P* hit 52.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 13.5 | 16.36 | +5.4ppProvisional P* hit 58.0% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 13.5 | 16.36 | -11.1ppProvisional P* hit 42.0% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 12.5 | 16.36 | +10.2ppProvisional P* hit 63.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 12.5 | 16.36 | -16.7ppProvisional P* hit 36.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 4.25 | -17.3ppProvisional P* hit 27.8% | DraftKings +122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 4.25 | +11.3ppProvisional P* hit 72.2% | DraftKings -156 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 5.5 | 4.25 | -17.7ppProvisional P* hit 27.8% | FanDuel +120 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malik NabersNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 5.5 | 4.25 | +10.7ppProvisional P* hit 72.2% | FanDuel -160 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 5.41 | +6.1ppProvisional P* hit 56.6% | DraftKings -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 5.41 | -12.1ppProvisional P* hit 43.4% | DraftKings -125 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 5.41 | +8.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.6% | FanDuel +106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NYG at WAS | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 5.41 | -14.9ppProvisional P* hit 43.4% | FanDuel -140 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.02 | -11.6ppProvisional P* hit 32.6% | DraftKings +126 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.02 | +5.7ppProvisional P* hit 67.4% | DraftKings -161 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 2.02 | -13.3ppProvisional P* hit 32.6% | FanDuel +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 2.02 | +6.1ppProvisional P* hit 67.4% | FanDuel -158 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.61 | -21.0ppProvisional P* hit 22.9% | DraftKings +128 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.61 | +15.0ppProvisional P* hit 77.1% | DraftKings -164 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.61 | -21.3ppProvisional P* hit 45.9% | FanDuel -205 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NYG at WAS | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.61 | +14.4ppProvisional P* hit 54.1% | FanDuel +152 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | -10.1ppProvisional P* hit 43.6% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | +4.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.4% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | -13.3ppProvisional P* hit 43.6% | FanDuel -132 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NYG at WAS | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.53 | +6.4ppProvisional P* hit 56.4% | FanDuel +100 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Odell Beckham Jr.NYG | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.81 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Odell Beckham Jr.NYG | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.78 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Patrick RicardNYG | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 1.53 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Patrick RicardNYG | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Patrick RicardNYG | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.9 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Braxton BerriosNYG | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.66 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Braxton BerriosNYG | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.55 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Devin SingletaryNYG | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 14.01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Devin SingletaryNYG | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 14.96 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Devin SingletaryNYG | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.45 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Najee HarrisNYG | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.34 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 4.53 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Theo JohnsonNYG | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.67 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Theo JohnsonNYG | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jaxson DartNYG | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 13.48 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Athan KaliakmanisWAS | QB | Pass yards | Unavailable | 214.02 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional Starter |
| Athan KaliakmanisWAS | QB | Pass TDs | Unavailable | 1.29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional Starter |
| Athan KaliakmanisWAS | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 16.44 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional Starter |
| Stefon DiggsWAS | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 40.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Stefon DiggsWAS | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.89 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Marcus MariotaWAS | QB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 6.22 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Austin EkelerWAS | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 15.48 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Austin EkelerWAS | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.29 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Austin EkelerWAS | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.96 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Craig ReynoldsWAS | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 7.16 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Craig ReynoldsWAS | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.34 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Terry McLaurinWAS | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 44.05 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Terry McLaurinWAS | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 3.47 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Dyami BrownWAS | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.87 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Dyami BrownWAS | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| John BatesWAS | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 12.25 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| John BatesWAS | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.14 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Rachaad WhiteWAS | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 19.06 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Rachaad WhiteWAS | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 17.26 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Rachaad WhiteWAS | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Treylon BurksWAS | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 13.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Treylon BurksWAS | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.03 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Chig OkonkwoWAS | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 18.63 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Chig OkonkwoWAS | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.85 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Colson YankoffWAS | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 8.18 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Colson YankoffWAS | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.66 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ben SinnottWAS | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.01 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ben SinnottWAS | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.54 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jaylin LaneWAS | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.88 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jaylin LaneWAS | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.63 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.75 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.09 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Antonio WilliamsWAS | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 28.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Antonio WilliamsWAS | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.67 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kaytron AllenWAS | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 10.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Kaytron AllenWAS | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.4 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 52 projection entries without quotes · 4 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
18 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open New York Giants - Washington Commanders Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.