PREGAME PROJECTIONS
Philadelphia Eaglesat
Jacksonville Jaguars
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Philadelphia Eagles—Jacksonville Jaguars—Refreshes every 30 seconds. Scores and stats may lag the action.
Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET
Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.
New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.
Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.
Game environment
Frozen pregame inputsProjected scorePHI 17.3 / JAX 30.4
Projected total47.7
Projected marginJAX by 13.1
Pace · expected playsPHI 54.95 / JAX 57.37
Projected pass ratePHI 60.7% / JAX 45.3%
TD inventoryPHI 1.88 / JAX 3.30
Player Props
Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Player Props| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 227.5 | 197.28 | -27.4ppProvisional P* hit 25.3% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 227.5 | 197.28 | +21.7ppProvisional P* hit 74.7% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 225.5 | 197.28 | -26.8ppProvisional P* hit 26.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 225.5 | 197.28 | +20.3ppProvisional P* hit 73.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 189.5 | 228.41 | +21.1ppProvisional P* hit 73.9% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 189.5 | 228.41 | -26.7ppProvisional P* hit 26.1% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsOVER · market side | 193.5 | 228.41 | +18.0ppProvisional P* hit 71.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass yardsUNDER · market side | 193.5 | 228.41 | -24.5ppProvisional P* hit 28.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.48 | -9.2ppProvisional P* hit 43.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.48 | +3.1ppProvisional P* hit 56.6% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.48 | -9.9ppProvisional P* hit 43.4% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.48 | +3.3ppProvisional P* hit 56.6% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 1.08 | -0.3ppProvisional P* hit 66.0% | DraftKings -197 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 1.08 | -5.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.0% | DraftKings +153 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsOVER · market side | 0.5 | 1.08 | -3.2ppProvisional P* hit 66.0% | FanDuel -225 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Pass TDsUNDER · market side | 0.5 | 1.08 | -3.9ppProvisional P* hit 34.0% | FanDuel +164 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 67.5 | 75.43 | -0.4ppProvisional P* hit 52.0% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 67.5 | 75.43 | -5.2ppProvisional P* hit 48.0% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 65.5 | 75.43 | +1.0ppProvisional P* hit 54.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 65.5 | 75.43 | -7.5ppProvisional P* hit 45.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 36.5 | 12.22 | -52.4ppProvisional P* hit 0.2% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 36.5 | 12.22 | +46.7ppProvisional P* hit 99.8% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 37.5 | 12.22 | -53.1ppProvisional P* hit 0.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 37.5 | 12.22 | +46.5ppProvisional P* hit 99.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 28.5 | 30.14 | -4.4ppProvisional P* hit 47.7% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 28.5 | 30.14 | -1.2ppProvisional P* hit 52.3% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 30.14 | +0.0ppProvisional P* hit 53.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 30.14 | -6.6ppProvisional P* hit 46.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 18.92 | -34.0ppProvisional P* hit 19.0% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 18.92 | +28.4ppProvisional P* hit 81.0% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 26.5 | 18.92 | -34.2ppProvisional P* hit 19.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jalen HurtsPHI · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 26.5 | 18.92 | +27.7ppProvisional P* hit 81.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 15.5 | 10.48 | -36.3ppProvisional P* hit 15.9% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 15.5 | 10.48 | +30.6ppProvisional P* hit 84.1% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsOVER · market side | 14.5 | 10.48 | -33.5ppProvisional P* hit 19.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · PHI at JAX | QB | Rush yardsUNDER · market side | 14.5 | 10.48 | +26.9ppProvisional P* hit 80.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 62.5 | 44.21 | -33.9ppProvisional P* hit 18.5% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 62.5 | 44.21 | +28.3ppProvisional P* hit 81.5% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 60.5 | 44.21 | -32.8ppProvisional P* hit 20.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 60.5 | 44.21 | +26.3ppProvisional P* hit 79.5% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 47.5 | 40.56 | -21.2ppProvisional P* hit 31.2% | DraftKings -110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 47.5 | 40.56 | +15.5ppProvisional P* hit 68.8% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 47.5 | 40.56 | -22.1ppProvisional P* hit 31.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 47.5 | 40.56 | +15.5ppProvisional P* hit 68.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 42.5 | 31.5 | -31.7ppProvisional P* hit 21.4% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 42.5 | 31.5 | +26.0ppProvisional P* hit 78.6% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 41.5 | 31.5 | -30.4ppProvisional P* hit 22.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 41.5 | 31.5 | +23.8ppProvisional P* hit 77.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 34.5 | 37.29 | -3.2ppProvisional P* hit 49.4% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 34.5 | 37.29 | -2.5ppProvisional P* hit 50.6% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 33.5 | 37.29 | -1.6ppProvisional P* hit 51.7% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 33.5 | 37.29 | -4.9ppProvisional P* hit 48.3% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 32.5 | 25.77 | -27.2ppProvisional P* hit 25.9% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 32.5 | 25.77 | +21.5ppProvisional P* hit 74.1% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 32.5 | 25.77 | -27.4ppProvisional P* hit 25.9% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 32.5 | 25.77 | +20.8ppProvisional P* hit 74.1% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 22.23 | -16.1ppProvisional P* hit 35.8% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 22.23 | +10.5ppProvisional P* hit 64.2% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 24.5 | 22.23 | -17.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 24.5 | 22.23 | +10.9ppProvisional P* hit 64.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 13.5 | 10.44 | -29.5ppProvisional P* hit 24.2% | DraftKings -116 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 13.5 | 10.44 | +23.9ppProvisional P* hit 75.8% | DraftKings -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 13.5 | 10.44 | -29.1ppProvisional P* hit 24.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 13.5 | 10.44 | +22.6ppProvisional P* hit 75.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 10.5 | 16.54 | +21.9ppProvisional P* hit 74.9% | DraftKings -113 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 10.5 | 16.54 | -27.5ppProvisional P* hit 25.1% | DraftKings -111 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 12.5 | 16.54 | +10.9ppProvisional P* hit 64.2% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 12.5 | 16.54 | -17.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.8% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 9.5 | 12.71 | +11.5ppProvisional P* hit 65.0% | DraftKings -115 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 9.5 | 12.71 | -17.1ppProvisional P* hit 35.0% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsOVER · market side | 9.5 | 12.71 | +11.7ppProvisional P* hit 65.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | Rec yardsUNDER · market side | 9.5 | 12.71 | -18.2ppProvisional P* hit 35.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.52 | -27.1ppProvisional P* hit 29.3% | DraftKings -129 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.52 | +21.0ppProvisional P* hit 70.7% | DraftKings +101 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 4.5 | 3.52 | -27.3ppProvisional P* hit 29.3% | FanDuel -130 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Parker WashingtonJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 4.5 | 3.52 | +20.2ppProvisional P* hit 70.7% | FanDuel -102 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.95 | -24.4ppProvisional P* hit 34.1% | DraftKings -141 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.95 | +18.3ppProvisional P* hit 65.9% | DraftKings +110 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.95 | -27.2ppProvisional P* hit 34.1% | FanDuel -158 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.95 | +20.1ppProvisional P* hit 65.9% | FanDuel +118 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.61 | -26.3ppProvisional P* hit 27.6% | DraftKings -117 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.61 | +20.2ppProvisional P* hit 72.4% | DraftKings -109 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.61 | -27.9ppProvisional P* hit 27.6% | FanDuel -125 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Makai LemonPHI · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.61 | +20.9ppProvisional P* hit 72.4% | FanDuel -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.86 | -22.0ppProvisional P* hit 32.4% | DraftKings -119 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.86 | +15.9ppProvisional P* hit 67.6% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 2.86 | -22.6ppProvisional P* hit 32.4% | FanDuel -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 2.86 | +16.2ppProvisional P* hit 67.6% | FanDuel -106 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.43 | -5.5ppProvisional P* hit 42.8% | DraftKings +107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.43 | -0.6ppProvisional P* hit 57.2% | DraftKings -137 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 3.5 | 3.43 | -4.4ppProvisional P* hit 42.8% | FanDuel +112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brenton StrangeJAX · PHI at JAX | TE | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 3.5 | 3.43 | -2.5ppProvisional P* hit 57.2% | FanDuel -148 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 0.91 | -45.2ppProvisional P* hit 7.6% | DraftKings -112 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 0.91 | +39.1ppProvisional P* hit 92.4% | DraftKings -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 0.91 | -44.3ppProvisional P* hit 7.6% | FanDuel -108 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Will ShipleyPHI · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 0.91 | +37.5ppProvisional P* hit 92.4% | FanDuel -122 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | -9.6ppProvisional P* hit 31.0% | DraftKings +146 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | +3.7ppProvisional P* hit 69.0% | DraftKings -188 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | -11.7ppProvisional P* hit 31.0% | FanDuel +134 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 2.5 | 1.95 | +4.7ppProvisional P* hit 69.0% | FanDuel -180 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -15.7ppProvisional P* hit 36.0% | DraftKings -107 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | +9.6ppProvisional P* hit 64.0% | DraftKings -119 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | -17.2ppProvisional P* hit 36.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · PHI at JAX | RB | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.29 | +10.7ppProvisional P* hit 64.0% | FanDuel -114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.4 | -3.0ppProvisional P* hit 39.6% | DraftKings +135 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.4 | -2.8ppProvisional P* hit 60.4% | DraftKings -172 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsOVER · market side | 1.5 | 1.4 | -7.2ppProvisional P* hit 39.6% | FanDuel +114 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
—Josh CameronJAX · PHI at JAX | WR | ReceptionsUNDER · market side | 1.5 | 1.4 | +0.1ppProvisional P* hit 60.4% | FanDuel -152 | — | Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs Captured price · separately estimated probability | |
| Zach ErtzPHI | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 21.79 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Zach ErtzPHI | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.93 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Johnny MundtPHI | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 11.9 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Johnny MundtPHI | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 1.1 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Dallas GoedertPHI | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 26.32 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Dallas GoedertPHI | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.13 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Saquon BarkleyPHI | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 32.23 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Saquon BarkleyPHI | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.62 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Saquon BarkleyPHI | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 1 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Marquise BrownPHI | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.32 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| DeVonta SmithPHI | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 67.49 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| DeVonta SmithPHI | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 5.71 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tank BigsbyPHI | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 22.69 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tank BigsbyPHI | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.62 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Tank BigsbyPHI | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.65 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Darius CooperPHI | WR | Rec yards | Unavailable | 34.58 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Darius CooperPHI | WR | Receptions | Unavailable | 2.89 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Ameer AbdullahJAX | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 15.42 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ameer AbdullahJAX | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Ameer AbdullahJAX | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.6 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Quintin MorrisJAX | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 7.68 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Quintin MorrisJAX | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.61 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 2.43 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX | RB | Rush yards | Unavailable | 1.52 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX | RB | Rec yards | Unavailable | 9.57 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX | RB | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.86 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyProvisional |
| Nate BoerkircherJAX | TE | Rec yards | Unavailable | 10.69 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
| Nate BoerkircherJAX | TE | Receptions | Unavailable | 0.88 | Unavailable | Unavailable | — | — | Projection onlyEstablished |
* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.
Data coverage · 28 projection entries without quotes · 4 ATD players without odds
Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.
0 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.
31 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.
Frozen data and source game sheet
Open Philadelphia Eagles - Jacksonville Jaguars Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf
Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.
Linked report fingerprint: Verified.
Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.