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PREGAME PROJECTIONS

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Provisional probability overlay · generated Thu, Oct 8, 11:18 PM ET

Traditional props in the 14 unplayed games use full-precision frozen player means, Gamma distributions for yardage (passing shape 16; rushing and receiving shape 4), negative-binomial receptions (shape 7), and Poisson passing TDs. This is a new parametric estimate, not a calibrated production rerun. The method reproduces all 42 archived Las Vegas probability examples.

New prices were captured Thu, Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET. Original prices keep priority. The probabilities use the actual recorded line and odds for each row; archive comparisons are retained. Edge is P(win | no push) minus the quoted implied probability, in percentage points. P* hit is the unconditional win probability.

Washington and Baltimore offensive estimates remain starter scenarios and are excluded from weekly rankings. Unsupported backup QB workloads are also excluded. Tampa–Dallas retains its archived layer because it had started; ATD projections and rankings are unchanged.

Game environment

Frozen pregame inputs
Projected scoreSF 26.3 / SEA 22
Projected total48.3
Projected marginSF by 4.3
Pace · expected playsSF 56.64 / SEA 59.09
Projected pass rateSF 49.4% / SEA 55.1%
TD inventorySF 2.86 / SEA 2.39

Search Week 5 players

Choose a player to open their game projections.

Player Props

Frozen projections · archived sportsbook markets
Rank / playerPositionMarket / sideLineGameDay ProjectionEdge*Book / American oddsLive / finalTrackStatus / evidence
1Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsOVER · archived quote1.51.3-13.5ppProvisional P* hit 38.4%
Archived proxyP 39.0% · edge -13.0pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -108—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
2Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsUNDER · archived quote1.51.3+6.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.6%
Archived proxyP 61.0% · edge +6.1pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -122—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
3Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsOVER · archived quote222.5221.6Quote projection 220.3 · DIFF-7.3ppProvisional P* hit 46.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
4Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsUNDER · archived quote222.5221.6Quote projection 220.3 · DIFF+0.7ppProvisional P* hit 54.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
5Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsOVER · archived quote19.523.6+4.6ppProvisional P* hit 57.9%
Archived proxyP 56.0% · edge +3.1pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
6Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsUNDER · archived quote19.523.6-11.2ppProvisional P* hit 42.1%
Archived proxyP 44.0% · edge -9.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
7Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · archived quote53.550Quote projection 47.8 · DIFF-15.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
8Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · archived quote53.550Quote projection 47.8 · DIFF+8.6ppProvisional P* hit 61.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
9Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsOVER · archived quote35.528.3Quote projection 28.1 · DIFF-27.1ppProvisional P* hit 26.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
10Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsUNDER · archived quote35.528.3Quote projection 28.1 · DIFF+20.6ppProvisional P* hit 73.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
11Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsOVER · archived quote4.53.1-32.8ppProvisional P* hit 22.7%
Archived proxyP 24.0% · edge -31.4pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -125—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
12Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsUNDER · archived quote4.53.1+25.8ppProvisional P* hit 77.3%
Archived proxyP 76.0% · edge +24.4pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -106—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
13Kaelon BlackSF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · archived quote14.526.6Quote projection 25.5 · DIFF+29.0ppProvisional P* hit 82.3%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
14Kaelon BlackSF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · archived quote14.526.6Quote projection 25.5 · DIFF-35.5ppProvisional P* hit 17.7%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
15Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote48.539.2Quote projection 38.8 · DIFF-26.1ppProvisional P* hit 27.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
16Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote48.539.2Quote projection 38.8 · DIFF+19.6ppProvisional P* hit 72.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
17Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote3.53.5-20.0ppProvisional P* hit 44.3%
Archived proxyP 42.0% · edge -22.6pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -180—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
18Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote3.53.5+13.0ppProvisional P* hit 55.7%
Archived proxyP 58.0% · edge +15.6pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel +134—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
19Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRec yardsOVER · archived quote31.5UnavailableQuote projection 23.2 · UNMATCHEDUnavailableFanDuel -114—UnavailableAwaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
20Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRec yardsUNDER · archived quote31.5UnavailableQuote projection 23.2 · UNMATCHEDUnavailableFanDuel -114—UnavailableAwaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
21Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableReceptionsOVER · archived quote3.5UnavailableQuote projection 2.6 · UNMATCHEDUnavailableFanDuel -102—UnavailableAwaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
22Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableReceptionsUNDER · archived quote3.5UnavailableQuote projection 2.6 · UNMATCHEDUnavailableFanDuel -130—UnavailableAwaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
23George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TERec yardsOVER · archived quote52.540Quote projection 39.4 · DIFF-30.2ppProvisional P* hit 23.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
24George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TERec yardsUNDER · archived quote52.540Quote projection 39.4 · DIFF+23.6ppProvisional P* hit 76.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
25George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsOVER · archived quote4.53.3-29.1ppProvisional P* hit 25.0%
Archived proxyP 26.0% · edge -28.3pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -118—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
26George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsUNDER · archived quote4.53.3+22.2ppProvisional P* hit 75.0%
Archived proxyP 74.0% · edge +21.4pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -112—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
27Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsOVER · archived quote1.51.3-17.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.7%
Archived proxyP 35.0% · edge -18.4pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
28Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsUNDER · archived quote1.51.3+11.0ppProvisional P* hit 64.3%
Archived proxyP 65.0% · edge +11.8pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
29Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsOVER · archived quote227.5242.9Quote projection 242.4 · DIFF+3.7ppProvisional P* hit 57.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
30Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsUNDER · archived quote227.5242.9Quote projection 242.4 · DIFF-10.2ppProvisional P* hit 43.0%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
31Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsOVER · archived quote4.53.8Quote projection 3.6 · DIFF-24.1ppProvisional P* hit 30.5%FanDuel -120—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
32Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsUNDER · archived quote4.53.8Quote projection 3.6 · DIFF+17.6ppProvisional P* hit 69.5%FanDuel -108—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
33Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote94.597.2Quote projection 97.7 · DIFF-7.7ppProvisional P* hit 45.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
34Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote94.597.2Quote projection 97.7 · DIFF+1.2ppProvisional P* hit 54.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
35Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote6.57.7+0.1ppProvisional P* hit 56.6%
Archived proxyP 52.0% · edge -4.9pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -130—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
36Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote6.57.7-7.1ppProvisional P* hit 43.4%
Archived proxyP 48.0% · edge -2.1pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -102—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
37Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote20.525.2Quote projection 24.8 · DIFF+5.9ppProvisional P* hit 59.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
38Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote20.525.2Quote projection 24.8 · DIFF-12.4ppProvisional P* hit 40.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statModel mismatch · excluded from rankings
39Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote1.52.2-2.1ppProvisional P* hit 61.2%
Archived proxyP 57.0% · edge -6.3pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -172—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
40Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote1.52.2-5.0ppProvisional P* hit 38.8%
Archived proxyP 43.0% · edge -0.8pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel +128—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
41Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · archived quote25.524-14.6ppProvisional P* hit 38.7%
Archived proxyP 38.0% · edge -15.5pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
42Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · archived quote25.524+8.1ppProvisional P* hit 61.3%
Archived proxyP 62.0% · edge +9.0pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
43Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · archived quote2.52.2-16.1ppProvisional P* hit 35.8%
Archived proxyP 35.0% · edge -16.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -108—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
44Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · archived quote2.52.2+9.2ppProvisional P* hit 64.2%
Archived proxyP 65.0% · edge +9.8pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -122—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
45AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TERec yardsOVER · archived quote24.527.4-1.2ppProvisional P* hit 52.1%
Archived proxyP 48.0% · edge -4.9pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
46AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TERec yardsUNDER · archived quote24.527.4-5.4ppProvisional P* hit 47.9%
Archived proxyP 52.0% · edge -1.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
47AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsOVER · archived quote2.52.5-14.0ppProvisional P* hit 42.9%
Archived proxyP 41.0% · edge -15.6pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel -132—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
48AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsUNDER · archived quote2.52.5+7.1ppProvisional P* hit 57.1%
Archived proxyP 59.0% · edge +8.7pp · MATCH · historical comparison only
FanDuel +100—
Awaiting statAligned archived quote
—Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsOVER · market side225.5242.92+5.7ppProvisional P* hit 58.3%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsUNDER · market side225.5242.92-11.4ppProvisional P* hit 41.7%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsOVER · market side226.5221.55-9.7ppProvisional P* hit 43.2%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass yardsUNDER · market side226.5221.55+4.0ppProvisional P* hit 56.8%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsOVER · market side1.51.26-14.8ppProvisional P* hit 35.7%DraftKings -102—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsUNDER · market side1.51.26+8.7ppProvisional P* hit 64.3%DraftKings -125—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsOVER · market side1.51.33-9.0ppProvisional P* hit 38.4%DraftKings +111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBPass TDsUNDER · market side1.51.33+3.1ppProvisional P* hit 61.6%DraftKings -141—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · market side60.545.75-30.2ppProvisional P* hit 22.7%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side60.545.75+24.5ppProvisional P* hit 77.3%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · market side62.545.75-32.7ppProvisional P* hit 20.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side62.545.75+26.2ppProvisional P* hit 79.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · market side53.550.01-15.2ppProvisional P* hit 38.1%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side53.550.01+9.5ppProvisional P* hit 61.9%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsOVER · market side19.523.59+5.3ppProvisional P* hit 57.9%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Brock PurdySF · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsUNDER · market side19.523.59-10.9ppProvisional P* hit 42.1%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · market side19.518.16-15.3ppProvisional P* hit 37.8%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side19.518.16+9.6ppProvisional P* hit 62.2%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · market side19.518.16-15.5ppProvisional P* hit 37.8%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side19.518.16+8.9ppProvisional P* hit 62.2%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kaelon BlackSF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsOVER · market side15.526.57+26.4ppProvisional P* hit 79.3%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Kaelon BlackSF · SF at SEA
RBRush yardsUNDER · market side15.526.57-32.1ppProvisional P* hit 20.7%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRush yardsOVER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -114—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRush yardsUNDER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -110—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRush yardsOVER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableFanDuel -114—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRush yardsUNDER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableFanDuel -114—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsOVER · market side4.53.8-23.9ppProvisional P* hit 30.5%DraftKings -119—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Sam DarnoldSEA · SF at SEA
QBRush yardsUNDER · market side4.53.8+18.3ppProvisional P* hit 69.5%DraftKings -105—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side90.597.21-4.1ppProvisional P* hit 48.9%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side90.597.21-1.5ppProvisional P* hit 51.1%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TERec yardsOVER · market side51.539.97-28.9ppProvisional P* hit 24.4%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TERec yardsUNDER · market side51.539.97+23.2ppProvisional P* hit 75.6%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side48.539.17-25.2ppProvisional P* hit 27.2%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side48.539.17+19.6ppProvisional P* hit 72.8%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsOVER · market side36.528.26-28.4ppProvisional P* hit 24.2%DraftKings -111—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side36.528.26+22.7ppProvisional P* hit 75.8%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRec yardsOVER · market side33.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -115—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableRec yardsUNDER · market side33.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -109—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side24.524.01-11.7ppProvisional P* hit 41.8%DraftKings -115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side24.524.01+6.1ppProvisional P* hit 58.2%DraftKings -109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TERec yardsOVER · market side23.527.43+2.9ppProvisional P* hit 55.2%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TERec yardsUNDER · market side23.527.43-8.5ppProvisional P* hit 44.8%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side20.525.24+5.5ppProvisional P* hit 59.2%DraftKings -116—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side20.525.24-11.1ppProvisional P* hit 40.8%DraftKings -108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side9.514.55+21.6ppProvisional P* hit 73.3%DraftKings -107—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side9.514.55-27.5ppProvisional P* hit 26.7%DraftKings -118—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side11.514.55+7.8ppProvisional P* hit 61.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side11.514.55-14.4ppProvisional P* hit 38.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsOVER · market side8.514.32+24.7ppProvisional P* hit 78.4%DraftKings -116—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side8.514.32-30.3ppProvisional P* hit 21.6%DraftKings -108—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsOVER · market side8.514.32+25.2ppProvisional P* hit 78.4%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side8.514.32-31.7ppProvisional P* hit 21.6%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsOVER · market side8.514.33+25.2ppProvisional P* hit 78.4%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side8.514.33-30.8ppProvisional P* hit 21.6%DraftKings -110—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsOVER · market side9.514.33+19.2ppProvisional P* hit 72.5%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBRec yardsUNDER · market side9.514.33-25.7ppProvisional P* hit 27.5%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side6.57.67+3.8ppProvisional P* hit 56.6%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side6.57.67-9.9ppProvisional P* hit 43.4%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsOVER · market side4.53.11-33.4ppProvisional P* hit 22.7%DraftKings -128—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Christian McCaffreySF · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side4.53.11+27.5ppProvisional P* hit 77.3%DraftKings +101—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsOVER · market side4.53.25-28.3ppProvisional P* hit 25.0%DraftKings -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George KittleSF · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsUNDER · market side4.53.25+22.2ppProvisional P* hit 75.0%DraftKings -112—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side3.53.51-16.6ppProvisional P* hit 44.3%DraftKings -156—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Mike EvansSF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side3.53.51+10.6ppProvisional P* hit 55.7%DraftKings +122—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableReceptionsOVER · market side3.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -105—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo SamuelSF · SF at SEA
UnavailableReceptionsUNDER · market side3.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -121—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsOVER · market side2.52.47-10.1ppProvisional P* hit 42.9%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—AJ BarnerSEA · SF at SEA
TEReceptionsUNDER · market side2.52.47+4.0ppProvisional P* hit 57.1%DraftKings -113—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side2.52.15-12.5ppProvisional P* hit 35.8%DraftKings +107—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Cooper KuppSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side2.52.15+6.6ppProvisional P* hit 64.2%DraftKings -136—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.52.23-1.7ppProvisional P* hit 61.2%DraftKings -169—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.52.23-4.3ppProvisional P* hit 38.8%DraftKings +132—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.45-18.7ppProvisional P* hit 41.1%DraftKings -149—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.45+12.8ppProvisional P* hit 58.9%DraftKings +117—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.45-20.7ppProvisional P* hit 41.1%FanDuel -162—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—George HolaniSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.45+13.8ppProvisional P* hit 58.9%FanDuel +122—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.25-24.6ppProvisional P* hit 34.9%DraftKings -147—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.25+18.6ppProvisional P* hit 65.1%DraftKings +115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.25-27.5ppProvisional P* hit 34.9%FanDuel -166—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SF at SEA
RBReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.25+20.4ppProvisional P* hit 65.1%FanDuel +124—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.3-0.8ppProvisional P* hit 36.2%DraftKings +170—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.3-4.9ppProvisional P* hit 63.8%DraftKings -219—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side1.51.3-5.4ppProvisional P* hit 36.2%FanDuel +140—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Tory HortonSEA · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side1.51.3-1.5ppProvisional P* hit 63.8%FanDuel -188—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRush yardsOVER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -114—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRush yardsUNDER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableDraftKings -110—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRush yardsOVER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableFanDuel -114—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRush yardsUNDER · market side8.5UnavailableUnavailableFanDuel -114—UnavailableAwaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Market side only · probability unavailable
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side33.523.31-36.0ppProvisional P* hit 17.5%DraftKings -115—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side33.523.31+30.3ppProvisional P* hit 82.5%DraftKings -109—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsOVER · market side34.523.31-37.4ppProvisional P* hit 15.9%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRRec yardsUNDER · market side34.523.31+30.9ppProvisional P* hit 84.1%FanDuel -114—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side3.52.63-23.1ppProvisional P* hit 28.1%DraftKings -105—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side3.52.63+17.2ppProvisional P* hit 71.9%DraftKings -121—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsOVER · market side3.52.63-28.4ppProvisional P* hit 28.1%FanDuel -130—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
—Deebo Samuel Sr.SF · SF at SEA
WRReceptionsUNDER · market side3.52.63+21.4ppProvisional P* hit 71.9%FanDuel -102—
Awaiting statAdded snapshot · Oct 8, 12:38 PM ET · Edge Labs
Captured price · separately estimated probability
Brandin CooksSFWRRec yardsUnavailable6.6UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Brandin CooksSFWRReceptionsUnavailable0.49UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Demarcus RobinsonSFWRRec yardsUnavailable21.43UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Demarcus RobinsonSFWRReceptionsUnavailable1.83UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
KhaDarel HodgeSFWRRec yardsUnavailable9.15UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
KhaDarel HodgeSFWRReceptionsUnavailable0.76UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Luke FarrellSFTERec yardsUnavailable8.58UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Luke FarrellSFTEReceptionsUnavailable0.71UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jacob CowingSFWRRec yardsUnavailable8.63UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jacob CowingSFWRReceptionsUnavailable0.68UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jordan WatkinsSFWRRec yardsUnavailable15.6UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jordan WatkinsSFWRReceptionsUnavailable1.25UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jordan JamesSFRBRush yardsUnavailable17.08UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jordan JamesSFRBRec yardsUnavailable2.41UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Kaelon BlackSFRBRec yardsUnavailable4.25UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Kaelon BlackSFRBReceptionsUnavailable0.24UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Eric SaubertSEATERec yardsUnavailable9.06UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Eric SaubertSEATEReceptionsUnavailable0.83UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Brady RussellSEARBRush yardsUnavailable1.5UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Brady RussellSEARBRec yardsUnavailable10.56UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Brady RussellSEARBReceptionsUnavailable0.9UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Elijah ArroyoSEATERec yardsUnavailable9.41UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Elijah ArroyoSEATEReceptionsUnavailable0.78UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyProvisional
Jadarian PriceSEARBRush yardsUnavailable34.39UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Jadarian PriceSEARBRec yardsUnavailable13.97UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished
Jadarian PriceSEARBReceptionsUnavailable1.37UnavailableUnavailable——Projection onlyEstablished

* P and edge are uncalibrated estimates. The new overlay uses the frozen player means and documented distribution assumptions; edge is the probability difference from the captured American odds, in percentage points. Starter scenarios remain excluded from weekly rankings. Started games retain archived probabilities. Historical proxy values remain available for comparison. Unavailable fields have no supporting frozen source. Black tick = line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay Projection; gold dot = actual.

Data coverage · 26 projection entries without quotes · 2 ATD players without odds

Coverage is based on captured DraftKings and FanDuel snapshots. An uncaptured market does not establish that a sportsbook offers it. Missing quotes remain unavailable.

24 archived prop rows have conflicting or unmatched quote projections. GameDay Projection uses the approved baseline where available; archived values remain visible for comparison and their original proxy edges are excluded from weekly rankings. A separate overlay may evaluate the same captured quote against the verified frozen mean.

40 eligible positive-edge prop signals. The weekly board defaults to Top 100, with an All positive edges option. Washington and Baltimore offensive starter scenarios remain excluded.

Frozen data and source game sheet

Open San Francisco 49ers - Seattle Seahawks Week 5 Game Sheet.pdf

Frozen early-signal player baseline; production v2R ATD. October 7, 2026 · archived third-party quotes.

Linked report fingerprint: Verified.

Most matchups use the archived early-signal player baseline; Tampa–Dallas preserves its later approved sheet. ATD probabilities use the locked v2R production board. Additional DK/FD prices come from the archived October 7 full market overlay; existing prices take priority and the prediction baseline remains unchanged. Previously missing market sides and ATD book prices are supplemented from the Edge Labs October 8, 2026, 12:38 PM ET capture, a third-party published snapshot rather than a live sportsbook feed. Traditional prop probabilities and edges for unplayed games now come from a separate timestamped provisional overlay using the verified frozen means and documented distribution assumptions. Original quote probabilities and edges remain available as archive comparisons. Starter scenarios are excluded from weekly rankings. Quote-model mismatches remain labeled; their original proxy edges are not used in weekly rankings.