WEEK 6 · ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN

Top 50 ATD convictions

Experimental · conditional

Our Top 50 players, ranked by conviction, with our TD probability and the best captured ATD price. Hover over or select a market to compare sportsbook offers.

50 ranked players14 matchupsInputs checked Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET

Conditional research rankings

Final availability, starters, assumed workloads and roof decisions remain open where flagged. DNP and LP describe Wednesday practice; they do not automatically mean a player is out.

Conviction is a ranking score, not a probability or confidence rating. This is an experimental adaptation of our ATD model.

Captured ATD pricesDraftKings and FanDuel · Oct 14, 12:39 PM ET · third-party snapshot; jurisdiction unverified. Prices do not refresh automatically. 46 of 50 players have captured prices. Quotes from the other four selected books are unavailable in this ATD archive.

Download ATD market comparison Original Top 50 PDF Original rankings CSV

Player or teamMatchupPosition50 of 50 shown · original ranks retained

Week 6 Top 50 ATD players ranked by conviction score, with captured sportsbook markets
Player	Best captured market	Our TD probability	Edge	Conviction score	Status / assumptions
1 James CookBUF · RB · BUF @ LV	＋ Add to My Wagers	84.4%	+21.5 pp	77.39	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
2 Kenneth Walker IIIKC · RB · LAC @ KC	＋ Add to My Wagers	81.7%	+18.7 pp	69.19	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
3 Kyren WilliamsLA · RB · ARI @ LA	＋ Add to My Wagers	74.2%	+6.9 pp	67.22	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
4 MarShawn LloydGB · RB · DAL @ GB	＋ Add to My Wagers	70.4%	+11.2 pp	63.78	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
5 Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB · DAL @ GB	＋ Add to My Wagers	64.6%	-2.0 pp	61.79	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
6 Christian McCaffreySF · RB · WAS @ SF	＋ Add to My Wagers	67.1%	-6.6 pp	59.24	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
7 Rhamondre StevensonNE · RB · NYJ @ NE	＋ Add to My Wagers	68.5%	+4.3 pp	56.62	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
8 Bijan RobinsonATL · RB · CHI @ ATL	＋ Add to My Wagers	65.3%	-2.5 pp	56.56	Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
9 Christian WatsonGB · WR · DAL @ GB	＋ Add to My Wagers	65.7%	+23.2 pp	55.62	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
10 Jonathan TaylorIND · RB · TEN @ IND	＋ Add to My Wagers	66.0%	-6.2 pp	55.06	LP; Status pending; Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Limited practice on Wednesday; final availability still needs review. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
11 Mike EvansSF · WR · WAS @ SF	＋ Add to My Wagers	59.7%	+6.2 pp	54.52	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
12 Derrick HenryBAL · RB · BAL @ CLE	＋ Add to My Wagers	71.0%	+4.9 pp	52.99	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
13 Davante AdamsLA · WR · ARI @ LA	＋ Add to My Wagers	60.2%	+3.7 pp	51.65	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
14 J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB · SEA @ DEN	＋ Add to My Wagers	53.1%	+16.7 pp	47.63	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
15 Ashton JeantyLV · RB · BUF @ LV	No captured ATD priceMarket comparison unavailable	47.3%	—	45.78	Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
16 Chuba HubbardCAR · RB · CAR @ PHI	＋ Add to My Wagers	56.8%	+4.4 pp	45.10	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
17 Will ShipleyPHI · RB · CAR @ PHI	No captured ATD priceMarket comparison unavailable	52.5%	—	44.76	DNP; Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Did not practice on Wednesday; this is not an OUT designation. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
18 Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · WR · SEA @ DEN	＋ Add to My Wagers	63.1%	+15.5 pp	44.59	Final report clear Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. No designation on the final injury report; game-day active status remains separate. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
19 Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB · SEA @ DEN	＋ Add to My Wagers	56.4%	+8.7 pp	44.43	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
20 Tony PollardTEN · RB · TEN @ IND	＋ Add to My Wagers	48.8%	+11.8 pp	43.02	DNP; Status pending; Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Did not practice on Wednesday; this is not an OUT designation. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
21 Tyler WarrenIND · TE · TEN @ IND	＋ Add to My Wagers	56.9%	+16.0 pp	42.64	Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
22 Isaiah LikelyNYG · TE · NO @ NYG	＋ Add to My Wagers	52.5%	+18.0 pp	41.88	Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
23 Cam SkatteboNYG · RB · NO @ NYG	＋ Add to My Wagers	46.2%	-7.3 pp	41.75	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
24 D'Andre SwiftCHI · RB · CHI @ ATL	＋ Add to My Wagers	50.0%	-11.5 pp	41.21	Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
25 George KittleSF · TE · WAS @ SF	＋ Add to My Wagers	46.7%	-0.9 pp	39.05	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
26 Brian RobinsonATL · RB · CHI @ ATL	＋ Add to My Wagers	46.1%	+19.8 pp	37.48	Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
27 Puka NacuaLA · WR · ARI @ LA	＋ Add to My Wagers	42.1%	-20.1 pp	37.32	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
28 CeeDee LambDAL · WR · DAL @ GB	＋ Add to My Wagers	45.2%	-0.3 pp	36.87	Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
29 Quinshon JudkinsCLE · RB · BAL @ CLE	No captured ATD priceMarket comparison unavailable	44.0%	—	36.22	DNP; Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Did not practice on Wednesday; this is not an OUT designation. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
30 Braelon AllenNYJ · RB · NYJ @ NE	＋ Add to My Wagers	41.9%	+1.9 pp	35.53	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
31 Trey McBrideARI · TE · ARI @ LA	＋ Add to My Wagers	42.1%	+2.1 pp	34.40	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
32 Brock BowersLV · TE · BUF @ LV	＋ Add to My Wagers	43.1%	-9.3 pp	33.58	LP; Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Limited practice on Wednesday; final availability still needs review. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
33 Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE · PIT @ TB	＋ Add to My Wagers	45.9%	+23.2 pp	33.30	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
34 Jaylen WarrenPIT · RB · PIT @ TB	＋ Add to My Wagers	42.4%	-8.8 pp	32.61	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
35 Keon ColemanBUF · WR · BUF @ LV	＋ Add to My Wagers	43.9%	+18.9 pp	31.23	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
36 Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RB · HOU @ JAX	＋ Add to My Wagers	43.0%	+23.0 pp	30.67	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
37 Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB · HOU @ JAX	＋ Add to My Wagers	38.5%	-5.0 pp	30.47	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
38 Bucky IrvingTB · RB · PIT @ TB	＋ Add to My Wagers	37.1%	+5.9 pp	29.46	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
39 Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · TE · BAL @ CLE	＋ Add to My Wagers	40.9%	+9.1 pp	29.45	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
40 Juwan JohnsonNO · TE · NO @ NYG	＋ Add to My Wagers	38.6%	+10.4 pp	29.13	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
41 Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · WR · TEN @ IND	＋ Add to My Wagers	38.2%	+18.6 pp	28.08	Roof TBD Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. The venue roof decision remains pending. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
42 Cody WhiteLV · WR · BUF @ LV	＋ Add to My Wagers	37.1%	+23.8 pp	27.81	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
43 Matthew GoldenGB · WR · DAL @ GB	＋ Add to My Wagers	32.3%	-7.7 pp	27.72	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
44 Denzel BostonCLE · WR · BAL @ CLE	＋ Add to My Wagers	40.0%	+7.8 pp	27.44	LP; Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Limited practice on Wednesday; final availability still needs review. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
45 Kendre MillerNO · RB · NO @ NYG	＋ Add to My Wagers	32.5%	-5.2 pp	27.15	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
46 Woody MarksHOU · RB · HOU @ JAX	＋ Add to My Wagers	40.4%	-6.1 pp	27.14	Role assumed Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Projected workload is an assumption in the working scenario. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
47 Breece HallNYJ · RB · NYJ @ NE	＋ Add to My Wagers	30.9%	-10.8 pp	26.18	DNP; Status pending Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Final game designation is pending. Did not practice on Wednesday; this is not an OUT designation. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
48 Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR · NYJ @ NE	＋ Add to My Wagers	31.3%	-3.8 pp	26.09	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
49 Malik NabersNYG · WR · NO @ NYG	＋ Add to My Wagers	31.4%	-5.6 pp	25.74	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.
50 Darius CooperPHI · WR · CAR @ PHI	No captured ATD priceMarket comparison unavailable	41.6%	—	25.68	Conditional Availability notes Game-day active status has not been confirmed. Working scenario only; alternatives are not probability weighted.

How to read the rankings and markets

Conviction combines a comparative component score and the experimental ATD probability: Composite ÷ 10 × TD probability × 100. It is a ranking score rather than calibrated confidence. TD probability covers an offensive rushing or receiving touchdown; passing touchdowns do not count.

The existing Week 6 research simulations supply the probability baseline, followed by the recovered high-value opportunity formulas. The original upstream production model has not been fully recovered. Inputs use play-by-play through Week 5 and the October 14 evening personnel/weather snapshot.

The best captured market is the highest payout available among the saved DraftKings and FanDuel ATD prices for that player and matchup. Edge = our experimental TD probability minus the raw price-implied probability, in percentage points, without vig removal. It is an unvalidated comparison. Negative edges stay visible because this board is ranked by conviction.

The October 14, 12:39 PM ET quotes come from an Edge Labs published sportsbook snapshot retrieved at 8:29 PM ET; they were not directly verified at either book. Jurisdiction is not stated. Other selected sportsbooks have no ATD quotes in this archive. Missing prices and edges stay blank; no older-week quotes are substituted. The model covers offensive rushing/receiving touchdowns, while sportsbook settlement rules may include other TD types or participation requirements.

Ranks stay fixed when you filter. These are the approved conviction Top 50, preserved separately from probability and market-edge rankings. The original PDF and CSV retain the same player order and scores. Official game-day active checks and later status updates remain pending.