WEEK 6 · GAME ENVIRONMENTS
Week 6 Games Experimental · conditional All 14 matchups from our weather-adjusted mean environments. Open a matchup for team opportunities, selected scenarios and the full game sheet.
Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET Conditional
Empower Field at Mile High
SEA 24.8
– DEN 22.9
Model total 47.7
Model margin SEA by 1.9 47.3°F · Wind 4.1 mph Gusts 15.0 mph · Precipitation chance 0%
SEA Sam DarnoldDEN Bo NixSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET Conditional
Wembley Stadium · Neutral site
HOU 16.4
– JAX 21.4
Model total 37.8
Model margin JAX by 5.0 55.3°F · Wind 9.9 mph Gusts 21.7 mph · Precipitation chance 22%
HOU C.J. StroudJAX Trevor LawrenceSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
3 unweighted alternatives available
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
CHI 22.0
– ATL 25.4
Model total 47.4
Model margin ATL by 3.3 Protected venue Roof assumed closed; official decision pending.
CHI Caleb WilliamsATL Michael Penix Jr.Selected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
3 unweighted alternatives available
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
Huntington Bank Field
BAL 23.9
– CLE 18.5
Model total 42.4
Model margin BAL by 5.4 60.5°F · Wind 9.0 mph Gusts 13.8 mph · Precipitation chance 1%
BAL Tyler HuntleyCLE Deshaun WatsonSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
1 unweighted alternative available
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
Lucas Oil Stadium
TEN 19.3
– IND 26.2
Model total 45.5
Model margin IND by 6.9 Protected venue Roof assumed closed; official decision pending.
TEN Cam WardIND Daniel JonesSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
1 unweighted alternative available
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
Gillette Stadium
NYJ 19.0
– NE 26.6
Model total 45.6
Model margin NE by 7.6 52.0°F · Wind 5.8 mph Gusts 16.1 mph · Precipitation chance 1%
NYJ Geno SmithNE Drake MayeSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
1 unweighted alternative available
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
MetLife Stadium
NO 22.1
– NYG 25.7
Model total 47.8
Model margin NYG by 3.7 56.3°F · Wind 6.8 mph Gusts 11.5 mph · Precipitation chance 1%
NO Tyler ShoughNYG Jameis WinstonSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
Lincoln Financial Field
CAR 20.7
– PHI 25.1
Model total 45.8
Model margin PHI by 4.5 56.3°F · Wind 5.0 mph Gusts 9.2 mph · Precipitation chance 1%
CAR Bryce YoungPHI Jalen HurtsSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET Conditional
Raymond James Stadium
PIT 18.6
– TB 17.3
Model total 35.8
Model margin PIT by 1.3 78.3°F · Wind 18.0 mph Gusts 33.4 mph · Precipitation chance 16%
PIT Aaron RodgersTB Jalon DanielsSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET Conditional
SoFi Stadium
ARI 17.3
– LA 31.9
Model total 49.2
Model margin LA by 14.6 Protected venue Outside weather is not applied to the environment.
ARI Jacoby BrissettLA Matthew StaffordSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET Conditional
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
LAC 15.3
– KC 29.1
Model total 44.4
Model margin KC by 13.8 64.6°F · Wind 8.9 mph Gusts 17.3 mph · Precipitation chance 0%
LAC Justin HerbertKC Patrick MahomesSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
1 unweighted alternative available
Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET Conditional
Allegiant Stadium
BUF 32.5
– LV 25.6
Model total 58.2
Model margin BUF by 6.9 Protected venue Outside weather is not applied to the environment.
BUF Josh AllenLV Kirk CousinsSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET Conditional
Lambeau Field
DAL 23.2
– GB 28.4
Model total 51.6
Model margin GB by 5.2 54.8°F · Wind 9.1 mph Gusts 24.2 mph · Precipitation chance 0%
DAL Dak PrescottGB Jordan LoveSelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET Conditional
Levi's Stadium
WAS 17.9
– SF 27.9
Model total 45.7
Model margin SF by 10.0 59.6°F · Wind 12.7 mph Gusts 29.9 mph · Precipitation chance 2%
WAS Jayden DanielsSF Brock PurdySelected QB assumptions · final clearance pending
2 unweighted alternatives available
How to read the game environments Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.
Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.
Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.
The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.
Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot
Seattle Seahawksat
Denver Broncos
Houston Texansat
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chicago Bearsat
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravensat
Cleveland Browns
Tennessee Titansat
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jetsat
New England Patriots
New Orleans Saintsat
New York Giants
Carolina Panthersat
Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelersat
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinalsat
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Chargersat
Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Billsat
Las Vegas Raiders
Dallas Cowboysat
Green Bay Packers
Washington Commandersat
San Francisco 49ers