WEEK 6 · PLAYER PROPS
Top 100 prop edges
Top 100 prop edgesOur projections against the best captured standard markets, ranked by edge. Hover over or select a market to compare its other lines and sportsbook prices.
Captured research pricesModel inputs: Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET. Quote times and coverage vary across our six books; prices do not refresh automatically. Final player clearance remains pending.
100 of 100 shown · original ranks retained
Pregame · live stats start near kickoffDownload Top 100 CSV
| Player | Best captured market | Our projection | Edge | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1  Puka NacuaLA · WR · ARI @ LA | 4.4rec | +44.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
2  Chuba HubbardCAR · RB · CAR @ PHI | 106.0yds | +39.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
3 Matthew StaffordLA · QB · ARI @ LA | 223.4yds | +37.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
4  Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · RB · WAS @ SF | 59.5yds | +35.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
5  Germie BernardPIT · WR · PIT @ TB | 2.3rec | +34.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
6  DJ MooreBUF · WR · BUF @ LV | 2.3rec | +33.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
7 Kyren WilliamsLA · RB · ARI @ LA | 95.0yds | +32.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
8 Germie BernardPIT · WR · PIT @ TB | 25.1yds | +29.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
9  J.K. DobbinsDEN · RB · SEA @ DEN | 65.0yds | +28.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
10  Justin HerbertLAC · QB · LAC @ KC | 232.2yds | +28.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
11  Jameis WinstonNYG · QB · NO @ NYG | 190.3yds | +27.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
12  Kaelon BlackSF · RB · WAS @ SF | 34.6yds | +27.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
13 Troy FranklinDEN · WR · SEA @ DEN | 0.9rec | +27.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
14  Jacoby BrissettARI · QB · ARI @ LA | 214.4yds | +25.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
15 Dalton KincaidBUF · TE · BUF @ LV | 3.1rec | +24.8 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
16 DJ MooreBUF · WR · BUF @ LV | 33.7yds | +24.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
17  Jake FergusonDAL · TE · DAL @ GB | 17.4yds | +24.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
18  Derrick HenryBAL · RB · BAL @ CLE | 107.3yds | +23.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
19  Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB · HOU @ JAX | 80.1yds | +23.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
20 Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · RB · HOU @ JAX | 25.9yds | +23.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
21  Tucker KraftGB · TE · DAL @ GB | 36.1yds | +23.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
22 Trevor LawrenceJAX · QB · HOU @ JAX | 258.8yds | +22.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
23  Kirk CousinsLV · QB · BUF @ LV | 277.9yds | +22.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
24  Sam DarnoldSEA · QB · SEA @ DEN | 254.7yds | +22.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
25 Jordan LoveGB · QB · DAL @ GB | 240.9yds | +22.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
26 Michael MayerLV · TE · BUF @ LV | 4.3rec | +21.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
27 Tre TuckerLV · WR · BUF @ LV | 56.5yds | +21.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
28  Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB · BAL @ CLE | 232.5yds | +21.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
29 Christian McCaffreySF · RB · WAS @ SF | 73.5yds | +21.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
30 Malik NabersNYG · WR · NO @ NYG | 58.0yds | +21.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
31 Cam SkatteboNYG · RB · NO @ NYG | 71.1yds | +21.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
32 Jake FergusonDAL · TE · DAL @ GB | 2.6rec | +20.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
33  Jalon DanielsTB · QB · PIT @ TB | 214.3yds | +20.8 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
34 Deshaun WatsonCLE · QB · BAL @ CLE | 39.7yds | +20.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
35 Rachaad WhiteWAS · RB · WAS @ SF | 29.2yds | +19.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
36 Christian McCaffreySF · RB · WAS @ SF | 30.5yds | +19.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
37 Bhayshul TutenJAX · RB · HOU @ JAX | 16.1yds | +19.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
38 Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB · SEA @ DEN | 1.1rec | +18.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
39 Courtland SuttonDEN · WR · SEA @ DEN | 24.4yds | +18.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
40 DK MetcalfPIT · WR · PIT @ TB | 40.6yds | +17.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
41 RJ HarveyDEN · RB · SEA @ DEN | 30.8yds | +17.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
42  Geno SmithNYJ · QB · NYJ @ NE | 247.5yds | +17.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
43 Tucker KraftGB · TE · DAL @ GB | 3.4rec | +16.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
44 James CookBUF · RB · BUF @ LV | 6.1yds | +16.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
45 Dak PrescottDAL · QB · DAL @ GB | 254.6yds | +16.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
46 RJ HarveyDEN · RB · SEA @ DEN | 4.7rec | +16.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
47  Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR · HOU @ JAX | 2.1rec | +16.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
48 Matthew GoldenGB · WR · DAL @ GB | 4.1rec | +16.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
49 Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR · CAR @ PHI | 84.8yds | +15.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
50 Blake CorumLA · RB · ARI @ LA | 50.1yds | +15.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
51 Bucky IrvingTB · RB · PIT @ TB | 76.0yds | +15.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
52 Elijah HigginsARI · TE · ARI @ LA | 19.1yds | +14.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
53 Evan EngramDEN · TE · SEA @ DEN | 2.3rec | +14.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
54 Malik NabersNYG · WR · NO @ NYG | 5.1rec | +14.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
55 Courtland SuttonDEN · WR · SEA @ DEN | 2.6rec | +14.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
56 Mike EvansSF · WR · WAS @ SF | 90.9yds | +14.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
57 Jayden DanielsWAS · QB · WAS @ SF | 1.0TDs | +13.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
58 RJ HarveyDEN · RB · SEA @ DEN | 46.6yds | +13.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
59 Chuba HubbardCAR · RB · CAR @ PHI | 2.2rec | +12.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
60 Mike EvansSF · WR · WAS @ SF | 6.7rec | +12.8 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
61 Brenton StrangeJAX · TE · HOU @ JAX | 48.8yds | +12.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
62 Pat FreiermuthPIT · TE · PIT @ TB | 30.1yds | +12.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
63 C.J. StroudHOU · QB · HOU @ JAX | 273.7yds | +12.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
64 Trey McBrideARI · TE · ARI @ LA | 60.7yds | +12.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
65 Blake CorumLA · RB · ARI @ LA | 1.0rec | +11.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
66 Brock PurdySF · QB · WAS @ SF | 269.4yds | +11.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
67 Aaron RodgersPIT · QB · PIT @ TB | 215.8yds | +11.8 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
68 Ty JohnsonBUF · RB · BUF @ LV | 25.4yds | +11.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
69 Kyren WilliamsLA · RB · ARI @ LA | 3.9rec | +11.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
70 DK MetcalfPIT · WR · PIT @ TB | 3.4rec | +11.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
71 George PickensDAL · WR · DAL @ GB | 61.4yds | +11.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
72 George KittleSF · TE · WAS @ SF | 4.7rec | +11.0 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
73 Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB · SEA @ DEN | 73.3yds | +10.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
74 Kenny GainwellTB · RB · PIT @ TB | 8.3yds | +9.8 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
75 Jakobi MeyersJAX · WR · HOU @ JAX | 42.1yds | +9.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
76 Javonte WilliamsDAL · RB · DAL @ GB | 78.3yds | +9.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
77 Cooper KuppSEA · WR · SEA @ DEN | 28.7yds | +9.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
78 MarShawn LloydGB · RB · DAL @ GB | 9.5yds | +9.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
79 Davante AdamsLA · WR · ARI @ LA | 3.8rec | +9.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
80 Trey McBrideARI · TE · ARI @ LA | 8.3rec | +9.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
81 Troy FranklinDEN · WR · SEA @ DEN | 15.2yds | +9.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
82 Michael MayerLV · TE · BUF @ LV | 35.2yds | +9.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
83 Kayshon BoutteHOU · WR · HOU @ JAX | 26.8yds | +9.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
84 Emanuel WilsonSEA · RB · SEA @ DEN | 62.0yds | +8.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
85 MarShawn LloydGB · RB · DAL @ GB | 1.7rec | +8.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
86 Josh CameronJAX · WR · HOU @ JAX | 24.3yds | +8.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
87 Kyren WilliamsLA · RB · ARI @ LA | 28.6yds | +7.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
88 Evan EngramDEN · TE · SEA @ DEN | 28.3yds | +7.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
89 Sam DarnoldSEA · QB · SEA @ DEN | 1.7TDs | +7.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | |
90 Christian McCaffreySF · RB · WAS @ SF | 4.3rec | +7.8 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
91 George KittleSF · TE · WAS @ SF | 60.1yds | +7.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET | |
92 Christian WatsonGB · WR · DAL @ GB | 4.4rec | +7.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
93 Kendrick BourneARI · WR · ARI @ LA | 34.9yds | +7.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET | |
94 Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR · CAR @ PHI | 5.7rec | +7.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
95 Ryan FlournoyDAL · WR · DAL @ GB | 2.7rec | +7.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET | |
96 James CookBUF · RB · BUF @ LV | 1.4rec | +6.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
97 Parker WashingtonJAX · WR · HOU @ JAX | 73.4yds | +6.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET | |
98 Garrett WilsonNYJ · WR · NYJ @ NE | 84.0yds | +6.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET | |
99 Josh AllenBUF · QB · BUF @ LV | 253.1yds | +6.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET | |
100 Jaylen WaddleDEN · WR · SEA @ DEN | 4.2rec | +6.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET |
Projection, edge, and market details
Our projection is the expected stat total from the preserved Week 6 R3 working case, using play-by-play through Week 5 and the October 14 evening personnel/weather inputs. It is separate from the probability of clearing a sportsbook line. Stat distributions and apparent edges remain experimental and uncalibrated.
The 100 rows are ranked by raw probability edge from the full pool of 148 eligible player/stat comparisons. Each comparison first selects the highest modeled expected-value standard offer from the preserved capture. Availability/workload review rows and extreme simulated probabilities are withheld from this main list. Alternative offers retain their own flags.
Edge = model win probability conditional on no push, minus quoted implied probability, in percentage points. Price sources include DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, theScore Bet, and bet365. DK/FD/BetMGM use a 12:39 PM ET third-party snapshot with unverified jurisdiction; later direct TN captures cover the other books. Coverage varies, and there are no complete six-book standard comparisons.
Live stats refresh every 30 seconds. Missing participation or stats remain unavailable. Progress is measured against the selected captured line. Final stat results do not determine a sportsbook’s DNP or void rules. Unders remain in progress until the game is final.
View the preserved original market snapshot · Top 50 ATD convictions