Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams

SoFi Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

ARI17.3

LA31.9

Model total: 49.2
Model margin: LA by 14.6

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 13 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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48 of 48 player/stat rows shown · 13 captured selections

ARI @ LA Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
1Puka NacuaLA · ARI @ LA	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	7.5	4.4rec	+44.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #1. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
3Matthew StaffordLA · ARI @ LA	QB	Passing yardsUNDER	283.5	223.4yds	+37.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #3. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
7Kyren WilliamsLA · ARI @ LA	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	69.5	95.0yds	+32.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #7. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
14Jacoby BrissettARI · ARI @ LA	QB	Passing yardsUNDER	244.5	214.4yds	+25.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #14. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
50Blake CorumLA · ARI @ LA	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	40.5	50.1yds	+15.2 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #50. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
52Elijah HigginsARI · ARI @ LA	TE	Receiving yardsOVER	10.5	19.1yds	+14.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #52. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
64Trey McBrideARI · ARI @ LA	TE	Receiving yardsUNDER	68.5	60.7yds	+12.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #64. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
65Blake CorumLA · ARI @ LA	RB	ReceptionsUNDER	1.5	1.0rec	+11.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #65. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
69Kyren WilliamsLA · ARI @ LA	RB	ReceptionsOVER	3.5	3.9rec	+11.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #69. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
79Davante AdamsLA · ARI @ LA	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	4.5	3.8rec	+9.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #79. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
80Trey McBrideARI · ARI @ LA	TE	ReceptionsOVER	7.5	8.3rec	+9.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #80. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
87Kyren WilliamsLA · ARI @ LA	RB	Receiving yardsOVER	22.5	28.6yds	+7.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #87. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
93Kendrick BourneARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	38.5	34.9yds	+7.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #93. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Bam KnightARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Rushing yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Elijah HigginsARI · ARI @ LA	TE	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jacoby BrissettARI · ARI @ LA	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.1TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen BrooksARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen BrooksARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Receptions	—	2.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jeremiyah LoveARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Rushing yards	—	46.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kendrick BourneARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	3.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael WilsonARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	57.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael WilsonARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	5.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Reggie VirgilARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Reggie VirgilARI · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Teagan QuitorianoARI · ARI @ LA	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Teagan QuitorianoARI · ARI @ LA	TE	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler AllgeierARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler AllgeierARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Receptions	—	2.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler AllgeierARI · ARI @ LA	RB	Rushing yards	—	22.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Blake CorumLA · ARI @ LA	RB	Receiving yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Colby ParkinsonLA · ARI @ LA	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Colby ParkinsonLA · ARI @ LA	TE	Receptions	—	0.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Davante AdamsLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	63.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Davis AllenLA · ARI @ LA	TE	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Davis AllenLA · ARI @ LA	TE	Receptions	—	0.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jordan WhittingtonLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jordan WhittingtonLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	0.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Konata MumpfieldLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	16.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Konata MumpfieldLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Matthew StaffordLA · ARI @ LA	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	2.5TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Puka NacuaLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	48.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Puka NacuaLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tutu AtwellLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tutu AtwellLA · ARI @ LA	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler HigbeeLA · ARI @ LA	TE	Receiving yards	—	32.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler HigbeeLA · ARI @ LA	TE	Receptions	—	2.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

ARIJacoby Brissett

LAMatthew Stafford

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

Protected venueOutside weather is not applied to the environment.

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. Protected venue features are zero.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

ARI @ LA team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	ARI	LA
Points	17.3	31.9
Scrimmage plays	61.3	63.1
Pass attempts	38.5	30.7
Rush attempts	19.9	30.7
Dropbacks	43.3	33.0
Sacks	2.9	1.7
Scrambles	1.9	0.6
Offensive touchdowns	1.64	3.73
Passing touchdowns	1.13	2.53
Rushing touchdowns	0.51	1.21
Field goals	1.71	1.84
Non-offensive points	0.9	0.8
Called pass rate	70.7%	52.3%
Pass share of attempts	66.0%	50.0%

Working-case clearance notes

Jeremiyah Love did not practice with left ankle issue; availability remains uncertain.
Rams Myles Garrett window not opening this week; protection/suspension risk remains.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

ARI official injury report ↗LA official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

22 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: d9bdc3fb4dc8c33322981fe53aaa8c58bcad865b0cbf6657f47c4f198d350ee8.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot