Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Huntington Bank Field

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

BAL23.9

CLE18.5

Model total: 42.4
Model margin: BAL by 5.4

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 3 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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52 of 52 player/stat rows shown · 3 captured selections

BAL @ CLE Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
18Derrick HenryBAL · BAL @ CLE	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	89.5	107.3yds	+23.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #18. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
28Deshaun WatsonCLE · BAL @ CLE	QB	Passing yardsOVER	201.5	232.5yds	+21.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #28. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
34Deshaun WatsonCLE · BAL @ CLE	QB	Rushing yardsOVER	28.5	39.7yds	+20.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #34. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Derrick HenryBAL · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Derrick HenryBAL · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receptions	—	1.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devontez WalkerBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	12.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devontez WalkerBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	0.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Elijah SarrattBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Elijah SarrattBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ja'Kobi LaneBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh CuevasBAL · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receiving yards	—	8.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh CuevasBAL · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receptions	—	0.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Justice HillBAL · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Justice HillBAL · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receptions	—	1.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Justice HillBAL · BAL @ CLE	RB	Rushing yards	—	30.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—LaJohntay WesterBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—LaJohntay WesterBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mark AndrewsBAL · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receptions	—	4.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Matthew HibnerBAL · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receiving yards	—	13.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Matthew HibnerBAL · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	37.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rashod BatemanBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	2.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL @ CLE	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.3TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL @ CLE	QB	Passing yards	—	179.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler HuntleyBAL · BAL @ CLE	QB	Rushing yards	—	18.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	64.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	4.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zay FlowersBAL · BAL @ CLE	WR	Rushing yards	—	8.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Blake WhiteheartCLE · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Blake WhiteheartCLE · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Denzel BostonCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	69.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Denzel BostonCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	3.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Deshaun WatsonCLE · BAL @ CLE	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.3TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · BAL @ CLE	TE	Receptions	—	3.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah BondCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	18.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah BondCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaleel McLaughlinCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Rushing yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jerry JeudyCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	17.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jerry JeudyCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	1.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—KC ConcepcionCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receiving yards	—	31.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—KC ConcepcionCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Receptions	—	3.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—KC ConcepcionCLE · BAL @ CLE	WR	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael BurtonCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael BurtonCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Receptions	—	5.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quinshon JudkinsCLE · BAL @ CLE	RB	Rushing yards	—	44.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

BALTyler Huntley

CLEDeshaun Watson

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

60.5°F · Wind 9.0 mphGusts 13.8 mph · Precipitation chance 1%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

BAL @ CLE team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	BAL	CLE
Points	23.9	18.5
Scrimmage plays	62.2	59.8
Pass attempts	26.3	34.1
Rush attempts	33.4	22.5
Dropbacks	31.1	40.0
Sacks	2.4	3.1
Scrambles	2.4	2.7
Offensive touchdowns	2.68	2.00
Passing touchdowns	1.29	1.26
Rushing touchdowns	1.39	0.74
Field goals	1.57	1.29
Non-offensive points	0.9	1.0
Called pass rate	50.1%	66.9%
Pass share of attempts	44.1%	60.2%

Working-case clearance notes

Huntley working starter; Lamar ankle DNP and unconfirmed.
Lane activated / FP; role based on only three historical targets.
Judkins ankle DNP; Boston/Concepcion LP. Confirm CLE RB availability and Estime role.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

BAL official injury report ↗CLE official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

22 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 6371021d88e37cd64bd0cc732502f986c254a2e9d50f624243efbbcfa0ca3c38.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot