Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Allegiant Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

BUF32.5

LV25.6

Model total: 58.2
Model margin: BUF by 6.9

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 11 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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61 of 61 player/stat rows shown · 11 captured selections

BUF @ LV Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
6DJ MooreBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	3.5	2.3rec	+33.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #6. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
15Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	ReceptionsUNDER	4.5	3.1rec	+24.8 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #15. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
16DJ MooreBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	49.5	33.7yds	+24.6 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #16. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
23Kirk CousinsLV · BUF @ LV	QB	Passing yardsOVER	240.5	277.9yds	+22.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #23. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
26Michael MayerLV · BUF @ LV	TE	ReceptionsOVER	2.5	4.3rec	+21.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #26. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
27Tre TuckerLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	35.5	56.5yds	+21.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #27. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
44James CookBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yardsUNDER	8.5	6.1yds	+16.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #44. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
68Ty JohnsonBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yardsOVER	15.5	25.4yds	+11.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #68. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
82Michael MayerLV · BUF @ LV	TE	Receiving yardsOVER	27.5	35.2yds	+9.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #82. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
96James CookBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	ReceptionsUNDER	1.5	1.4rec	+6.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #96. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
99Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ LV	QB	Passing yardsOVER	238.5	253.1yds	+6.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #99. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Dalton KincaidBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	Receiving yards	—	53.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dawson KnoxBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dawson KnoxBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	Receptions	—	1.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dawson KnoxBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—DJ MooreBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jackson HawesBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jackson HawesBUF · BUF @ LV	TE	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—James CookBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	174.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh AllenBUF · BUF @ LV	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.9TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh PalmerBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	16.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh PalmerBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	0.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keon ColemanBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	43.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keon ColemanBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	2.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Khalil ShakirBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	47.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Khalil ShakirBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	3.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ray DavisBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ray DavisBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ray DavisBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Skyler BellBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Skyler BellBUF · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ty JohnsonBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Receptions	—	1.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ty JohnsonBUF · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ashton JeantyLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yards	—	44.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ashton JeantyLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receptions	—	4.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ashton JeantyLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	52.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brock BowersLV · BUF @ LV	TE	Receiving yards	—	64.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brock BowersLV · BUF @ LV	TE	Receptions	—	5.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cody WhiteLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	22.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cody WhiteLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	1.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Connor HeywardLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Connor HeywardLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Connor HeywardLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dareke YoungLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dareke YoungLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dylan LaubeLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dylan LaubeLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receptions	—	0.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dylan LaubeLV · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ian ThomasLV · BUF @ LV	TE	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ian ThomasLV · BUF @ LV	TE	Receptions	—	0.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen NailorLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen NailorLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kirk CousinsLV · BUF @ LV	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.8TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Malik BensonLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Malik BensonLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Malik BensonLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · BUF @ LV	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mike Washington Jr.LV · BUF @ LV	RB	Rushing yards	—	22.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tre TuckerLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Receptions	—	3.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tre TuckerLV · BUF @ LV	WR	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

BUFJosh Allen

LVKirk Cousins

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

Protected venueOutside weather is not applied to the environment.

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. Protected venue features are zero.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

BUF @ LV team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	BUF	LV
Points	32.5	25.6
Scrimmage plays	63.6	62.2
Pass attempts	27.9	37.7
Rush attempts	33.8	21.8
Dropbacks	32.3	41.0
Sacks	1.9	2.7
Scrambles	2.5	0.7
Offensive touchdowns	3.84	2.74
Passing touchdowns	1.90	1.79
Rushing touchdowns	1.94	0.95
Field goals	1.69	2.16
Non-offensive points	1.2	0.4
Called pass rate	50.8%	66.0%
Pass share of attempts	45.3%	63.3%

Working-case clearance notes

Buffalo current report unavailable at snapshot; recent Spencer Brown back injury needs follow-up.
Raiders Bowers LP, Jeanty FP per official aggregate; do not assume Thornton activated.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

BUF official injury report ↗LV official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

25 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 6428d40dd5754cade7072939704534be0c7fa016fc4625e7890ffe79eda96032.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot