Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Lincoln Financial Field

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

CAR20.7

PHI25.1

Model total: 45.8
Model margin: PHI by 4.5

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 4 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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49 of 49 player/stat rows shown · 4 captured selections

CAR @ PHI Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
2Chuba HubbardCAR · CAR @ PHI	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	69.5	106.0yds	+39.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #2. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
49Tetairoa McMillanCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	64.5	84.8yds	+15.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #49. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
59Chuba HubbardCAR · CAR @ PHI	RB	ReceptionsUNDER	2.5	2.2rec	+12.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #59. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
94Tetairoa McMillanCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	ReceptionsOVER	5.5	5.7rec	+7.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #94. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—AJ DillonCAR · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—AJ DillonCAR · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—AJ DillonCAR · CAR @ PHI	RB	Rushing yards	—	15.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ PHI	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.3TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bryce YoungCAR · CAR @ PHI	QB	Passing yards	—	258.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brycen TremayneCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brycen TremayneCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	1.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chuba HubbardCAR · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receiving yards	—	18.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darren WallerCAR · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darren WallerCAR · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receptions	—	2.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—David MooreCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—David MooreCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen CokerCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	48.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen CokerCAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	3.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—John Metchie IIICAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	12.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—John Metchie IIICAR · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mitchell EvansCAR · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receiving yards	—	15.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mitchell EvansCAR · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receptions	—	1.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tommy TrembleCAR · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receiving yards	—	18.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tommy TrembleCAR · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receptions	—	2.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dallas GoedertPHI · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dallas GoedertPHI · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receptions	—	2.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dameon PiercePHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dameon PiercePHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dameon PiercePHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Rushing yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darius CooperPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	28.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darius CooperPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	1.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—DeVonta SmithPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	50.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—DeVonta SmithPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	4.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	55.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dontayvion WicksPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	3.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen HurtsPHI · CAR @ PHI	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.4TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen HurtsPHI · CAR @ PHI	QB	Passing yards	—	184.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Johnny MundtPHI · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Johnny MundtPHI · CAR @ PHI	TE	Receptions	—	0.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Makai LemonPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receiving yards	—	23.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Makai LemonPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Receptions	—	3.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Makai LemonPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marquise BrownPHI · CAR @ PHI	WR	Rushing yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Saquon BarkleyPHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Saquon BarkleyPHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receptions	—	0.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Saquon BarkleyPHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Rushing yards	—	74.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Will ShipleyPHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Will ShipleyPHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Will ShipleyPHI · CAR @ PHI	RB	Rushing yards	—	23.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

CARBryce Young

PHIJalen Hurts

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

56.3°F · Wind 5.0 mphGusts 9.2 mph · Precipitation chance 1%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

CAR @ PHI team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	CAR	PHI
Points	20.7	25.1
Scrimmage plays	62.7	61.4
Pass attempts	32.8	30.4
Rush attempts	27.4	28.7
Dropbacks	37.5	35.3
Sacks	2.5	2.2
Scrambles	2.1	2.7
Offensive touchdowns	2.15	2.55
Passing touchdowns	1.33	1.41
Rushing touchdowns	0.82	1.14
Field goals	1.76	2.35
Non-offensive points	0.7	0.7
Called pass rate	59.8%	57.5%
Pass share of attempts	54.5%	51.4%

Working-case clearance notes

Barkley, DeVonta Smith and Shipley DNP; keep full-role forecasts conditional.
Carolina Dillon DNP; Tremble/Waller LP. Several return windows remain unactivated.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

CAR official injury report ↗PHI official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

22 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 8311ff041dc207deb9134f2dd1e7e108695206093af7846877fffc7087dbf61e.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot