Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

CHI22.0

ATL25.4

Model total: 47.4
Model margin: ATL by 3.3

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 0 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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54 of 54 player/stat rows shown · 0 captured selections

CHI @ ATL Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
—Austin HooperATL · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Austin HooperATL · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bijan RobinsonATL · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receiving yards	—	34.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bijan RobinsonATL · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receptions	—	4.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bijan RobinsonATL · CHI @ ATL	RB	Rushing yards	—	107.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brian RobinsonATL · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brian RobinsonATL · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brian RobinsonATL · CHI @ ATL	RB	Rushing yards	—	39.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Charlie WoernerATL · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Charlie WoernerATL · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris BlairATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris BlairATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Drake LondonATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	108.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Drake LondonATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	6.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Drake LondonATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jahan DotsonATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jahan DotsonATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	1.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kyle PittsATL · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receiving yards	—	24.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kyle PittsATL · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receptions	—	2.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · CHI @ ATL	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.4TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · CHI @ ATL	QB	Passing yards	—	288.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Michael Penix Jr.ATL · CHI @ ATL	QB	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Olamide ZaccheausATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Olamide ZaccheausATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zachariah BranchATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zachariah BranchATL · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Caleb WilliamsCHI · CHI @ ATL	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.6TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Caleb WilliamsCHI · CHI @ ATL	QB	Passing yards	—	234.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Caleb WilliamsCHI · CHI @ ATL	QB	Rushing yards	—	42.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cole KmetCHI · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receiving yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cole KmetCHI · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receiving yards	—	20.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Colston LovelandCHI · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receptions	—	2.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receiving yards	—	25.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receptions	—	3.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—D'Andre SwiftCHI · CHI @ ATL	RB	Rushing yards	—	77.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jahdae WalkerCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jahdae WalkerCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	42.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	4.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kalif RaymondCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	49.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	4.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luther Burden IIICHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	49.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rome OdunzeCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	3.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Roschon JohnsonCHI · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Roschon JohnsonCHI · CHI @ ATL	RB	Receptions	—	1.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Roschon JohnsonCHI · CHI @ ATL	RB	Rushing yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Sam RoushCHI · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Sam RoushCHI · CHI @ ATL	TE	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zavion ThomasCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zavion ThomasCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Zavion ThomasCHI · CHI @ ATL	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

CHICaleb Williams

ATLMichael Penix Jr.

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

Protected venueRoof assumed closed; official decision pending.

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. Protected venue features are zero.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

CHI @ ATL team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	CHI	ATL
Points	22.0	25.4
Scrimmage plays	60.6	62.5
Pass attempts	32.3	31.0
Rush attempts	25.8	29.6
Dropbacks	37.3	34.3
Sacks	2.4	1.9
Scrambles	2.6	1.4
Offensive touchdowns	2.48	2.80
Passing touchdowns	1.62	1.40
Rushing touchdowns	0.86	1.39
Field goals	1.39	1.80
Non-offensive points	0.9	0.8
Called pass rate	61.6%	54.9%
Pass share of attempts	55.6%	51.1%

Working-case clearance notes

Caleb estimated FP walkthrough; coach still undecided among Williams/Bagent/Keenum.
Penix took starting reps and practiced fully; expected starter pending final report.
Monangai DNP, out working case; Sweat suspension and Odeyingbo injury remain defensive risks.
Roof TBD; closed reference plus open alternative.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

CHI official injury report ↗ATL official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

22 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: ef67608d5e7fd6f4a39b22fcc6177a0676ce9337f0371e100eee08a80687f588.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot