Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers

Lambeau Field

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

DAL23.2

GB28.4

Model total: 51.6
Model margin: GB by 5.2

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 13 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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58 of 58 player/stat rows shown · 13 captured selections

DAL @ GB Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
17Jake FergusonDAL · DAL @ GB	TE	Receiving yardsUNDER	24.5	17.4yds	+24.2 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #17. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
21Tucker KraftGB · DAL @ GB	TE	Receiving yardsUNDER	49.5	36.1yds	+23.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #21. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
25Jordan LoveGB · DAL @ GB	QB	Passing yardsUNDER	271.5	240.9yds	+22.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #25. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
32Jake FergusonDAL · DAL @ GB	TE	ReceptionsUNDER	3.5	2.6rec	+20.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #32. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
43Tucker KraftGB · DAL @ GB	TE	ReceptionsUNDER	4.5	3.4rec	+16.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #43. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
45Dak PrescottDAL · DAL @ GB	QB	Passing yardsUNDER	278.5	254.6yds	+16.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #45. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
48Matthew GoldenGB · DAL @ GB	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	4.5	4.1rec	+16.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #48. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
71George PickensDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	69.5	61.4yds	+11.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #71. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
76Javonte WilliamsDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	70.5	78.3yds	+9.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #76. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
78MarShawn LloydGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Receiving yardsUNDER	10.5	9.5yds	+9.6 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #78. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
85MarShawn LloydGB · DAL @ GB	RB	ReceptionsUNDER	1.5	1.7rec	+8.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #85. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
92Christian WatsonGB · DAL @ GB	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	4.5	4.4rec	+7.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #92. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
95Ryan FlournoyDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	2.5	2.7rec	+7.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 8:20 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #95. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · DAL @ GB	TE	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brevyn Spann-FordDAL · DAL @ GB	TE	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—CeeDee LambDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	87.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—CeeDee LambDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	6.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—CeeDee LambDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dak PrescottDAL · DAL @ GB	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.8TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—George PickensDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	4.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hunter LuepkeDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hunter LuepkeDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hunter LuepkeDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Rushing yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Javonte WilliamsDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Receiving yards	—	16.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Javonte WilliamsDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Receptions	—	2.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonathan MingoDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonathan MingoDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—KaVontae TurpinDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—KaVontae TurpinDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—KaVontae TurpinDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luke SchoonmakerDAL · DAL @ GB	TE	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luke SchoonmakerDAL · DAL @ GB	TE	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ryan FlournoyDAL · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler GoodsonDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler GoodsonDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler GoodsonDAL · DAL @ GB	RB	Rushing yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bo MeltonGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bo MeltonGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Christian WatsonGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	81.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—J. Michael SturdivantGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—J. Michael SturdivantGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonnu SmithGB · DAL @ GB	TE	Receiving yards	—	15.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonnu SmithGB · DAL @ GB	TE	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jordan LoveGB · DAL @ GB	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	2.0TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kaleb JohnsonGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Rushing yards	—	38.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mark RedmanGB · DAL @ GB	TE	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mark RedmanGB · DAL @ GB	TE	Receptions	—	0.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—MarShawn LloydGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Rushing yards	—	41.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Matthew GoldenGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	68.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Matthew GoldenGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Pierre StrongGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Pierre StrongGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Pierre StrongGB · DAL @ GB	RB	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Skyy MooreGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Skyy MooreGB · DAL @ GB	WR	Receptions	—	1.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tucker KraftGB · DAL @ GB	TE	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

DALDak Prescott

GBJordan Love

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

54.8°F · Wind 9.1 mphGusts 24.2 mph · Precipitation chance 0%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

DAL @ GB team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	DAL	GB
Points	23.2	28.4
Scrimmage plays	63.0	60.8
Pass attempts	35.3	31.6
Rush attempts	25.5	27.3
Dropbacks	39.0	34.8
Sacks	2.1	1.9
Scrambles	1.5	1.2
Offensive touchdowns	2.56	3.30
Passing touchdowns	1.75	1.98
Rushing touchdowns	0.81	1.32
Field goals	1.70	1.82
Non-offensive points	0.6	0.4
Called pass rate	61.9%	57.2%
Pass share of attempts	58.1%	53.7%

Working-case clearance notes

Lamb thigh FP; Dallas defensive return/illness checks remain.
Skyy Moore DNP, Savion Williams LP. Forecast numerically applied.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

DAL official injury report ↗GB official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

24 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 2cbeaf639c9a00d8d6ff293fcfecdf2f872f8bb39bedc79c7fe83b50fb6a1fd5.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot