Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Wembley Stadium · Neutral site

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

HOU16.4

JAX21.4

Model total: 37.8
Model margin: JAX by 5.0

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 11 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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63 of 63 player/stat rows shown · 11 captured selections

HOU @ JAX Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
19Bhayshul TutenJAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	63.5	80.1yds	+23.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #19. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
20Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	16.5	25.9yds	+23.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #20. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
22Trevor LawrenceJAX · HOU @ JAX	QB	Passing yardsOVER	221.5	258.8yds	+22.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #22. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
37Bhayshul TutenJAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receiving yardsOVER	7.5	16.1yds	+19.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #37. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
47Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	2.5	2.1rec	+16.4 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #47. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
61Brenton StrangeJAX · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yardsOVER	36.5	48.8yds	+12.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #61. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
63C.J. StroudHOU · HOU @ JAX	QB	Passing yardsOVER	251.5	273.7yds	+12.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #63. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
75Jakobi MeyersJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	29.5	42.1yds	+9.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #75. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
83Kayshon BoutteHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	30.5	26.8yds	+9.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #83. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
86Josh CameronJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	15.5	24.3yds	+8.2 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #86. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
97Parker WashingtonJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	61.5	73.4yds	+6.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #97. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Brevin JordanHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brevin JordanHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—C.J. StroudHOU · HOU @ JAX	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.2TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cade StoverHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cade StoverHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	51.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dalton SchultzHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	5.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dare OgunbowaleHOU · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dare OgunbowaleHOU · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receptions	—	0.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dare OgunbowaleHOU · HOU @ JAX	RB	Rushing yards	—	8.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Foster MoreauHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	14.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Foster MoreauHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	1.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yards	—	40.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	2.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaylin NoelHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Rushing yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marlin KleinHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marlin KleinHOU · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yards	—	19.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marvin Harrison Jr.HOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yards	—	44.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	3.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Nico CollinsHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receiving yards	—	16.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receptions	—	3.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Woody MarksHOU · HOU @ JAX	RB	Rushing yards	—	60.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yards	—	41.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	2.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Xavier HutchinsonHOU · HOU @ JAX	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ameer AbdullahJAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ameer AbdullahJAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ameer AbdullahJAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Rushing yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bhayshul TutenJAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receptions	—	1.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brenton StrangeJAX · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	4.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yards	—	22.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brian Thomas Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	1.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris Rodriguez Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	3.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jakobi MeyersJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh CameronJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	1.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—LeQuint Allen Jr.JAX · HOU @ JAX	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Nate BoerkircherJAX · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Nate BoerkircherJAX · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	0.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Parker WashingtonJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	4.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Parker WashingtonJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quintin MorrisJAX · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quintin MorrisJAX · HOU @ JAX	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Travis HunterJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Travis HunterJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Travis HunterJAX · HOU @ JAX	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Trevor LawrenceJAX · HOU @ JAX	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.2TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

HOUC.J. Stroud

JAXTrevor Lawrence

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

55.3°F · Wind 9.9 mphGusts 21.7 mph · Precipitation chance 22%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

Open-Meteo forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

HOU @ JAX team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	HOU	JAX
Points	16.4	21.4
Scrimmage plays	59.2	61.8
Pass attempts	36.2	31.4
Rush attempts	20.5	28.1
Dropbacks	40.6	35.5
Sacks	2.4	2.3
Scrambles	2.0	1.8
Offensive touchdowns	1.67	2.29
Passing touchdowns	1.24	1.22
Rushing touchdowns	0.42	1.07
Field goals	1.36	1.55
Non-offensive points	0.9	1.1
Called pass rate	68.7%	57.5%
Pass share of attempts	63.8%	52.8%

Working-case clearance notes

Montgomery groin DNP, out working case; RB split 90/10 Marks/Ogunbowale is assumed.
Harrison new-team target share remains 8.8% working, with low/high alternatives.
Tank Dell practice window/FP is not activation; Bryce Oliver role not established.
Use Wembley forecast; Braden Smith activated and Jacksonville Anton Harrison IR.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

HOU official injury report ↗JAX official injury report ↗Open-Meteo stadium forecast ↗

26 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 302965cf8ec52a5c17b2687a74dfec2c64be01a936075f3894bf35fb1585a6fc.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot