Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

LAC15.3

KC29.1

Model total: 44.4
Model margin: KC by 13.8

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 1 published Top 100 market selection. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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57 of 57 player/stat rows shown · 1 captured selections

LAC @ KC Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
10Justin HerbertLAC · LAC @ KC	QB	Passing yardsOVER	191.5	232.2yds	+28.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #10. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Brashard SmithKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brashard SmithKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cyrus AllenKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cyrus AllenKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Emmett JohnsonKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	16.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Emmett JohnsonKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Emmett JohnsonKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Rushing yards	—	17.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jake BriningstoolKC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jake BriningstoolKC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen RoyalsKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalen RoyalsKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenneth Walker IIIKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	18.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenneth Walker IIIKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	2.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenneth Walker IIIKC · LAC @ KC	RB	Rushing yards	—	163.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Noah GrayKC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receiving yards	—	13.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Noah GrayKC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receptions	—	1.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Patrick MahomesKC · LAC @ KC	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.9TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Patrick MahomesKC · LAC @ KC	QB	Passing yards	—	228.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rashee RiceKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	54.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rashee RiceKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	3.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Travis KelceKC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receiving yards	—	53.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Travis KelceKC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receptions	—	3.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Xavier WorthyKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	38.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Xavier WorthyKC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	4.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Alec IngoldLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Alec IngoldLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brenen ThompsonLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brenen ThompsonLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Charlie KolarLAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receiving yards	—	14.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Charlie KolarLAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receptions	—	1.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Derius DavisLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Derius DavisLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hayden RucciLAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hayden RucciLAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Justin HerbertLAC · LAC @ KC	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	0.9TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keaton MitchellLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	13.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keaton MitchellLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	3.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keaton MitchellLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Rushing yards	—	21.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kimani VidalLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kimani VidalLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kimani VidalLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Rushing yards	—	14.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ladd McConkeyLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	70.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ladd McConkeyLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	4.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marquez Valdes-ScantlingLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Marquez Valdes-ScantlingLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	0.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Omarion HamptonLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receiving yards	—	9.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Omarion HamptonLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Receptions	—	1.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Omarion HamptonLAC · LAC @ KC	RB	Rushing yards	—	43.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Oronde Gadsden IILAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receiving yards	—	22.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Oronde Gadsden IILAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Receptions	—	2.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Oronde Gadsden IILAC · LAC @ KC	TE	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quentin JohnstonLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	41.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quentin JohnstonLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	2.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Quentin JohnstonLAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Theo Wease Jr.LAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Theo Wease Jr.LAC · LAC @ KC	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

LACJustin Herbert

KCPatrick Mahomes

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

64.6°F · Wind 8.9 mphGusts 17.3 mph · Precipitation chance 0%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

LAC @ KC team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	LAC	KC
Points	15.3	29.1
Scrimmage plays	57.8	61.4
Pass attempts	35.5	28.2
Rush attempts	19.5	31.3
Dropbacks	40.6	32.3
Sacks	2.8	2.0
Scrambles	2.2	2.2
Offensive touchdowns	1.26	3.44
Passing touchdowns	0.93	1.93
Rushing touchdowns	0.33	1.51
Field goals	2.07	1.65
Non-offensive points	0.4	0.6
Called pass rate	70.2%	52.6%
Pass share of attempts	64.5%	47.4%

Working-case clearance notes

Tre Harris DNP / out working case; McConkey, Johnston and other LAC WRs LP.
Rice hamstring/knee DNP; Mahomes knee FP.
Alt/Awosika protection injuries and Thornton IR remain part of the risk review.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

LAC official injury report ↗KC official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

25 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: d8efe0f371b599789e53df04c09c8d45346dcb0b3b248ecae401ec83254ebfd4.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot