Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

MetLife Stadium

Download game sheet PDF

SELECTED WORKING CASE

NO22.1

NYG25.7

Model total: 47.8
Model margin: NYG by 3.7

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 4 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

Find a player

Show

55 of 55 player/stat rows shown · 4 captured selections

NO @ NYG Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
11Jameis WinstonNYG · NO @ NYG	QB	Passing yardsUNDER	224.5	190.3yds	+27.6 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #11. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
30Malik NabersNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	74.5	58.0yds	+21.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #30. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
31Cam SkatteboNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	57.5	71.1yds	+21.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #31. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
54Malik NabersNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	5.5	5.1rec	+14.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #54. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Alvin KamaraNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Alvin KamaraNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	2.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Alvin KamaraNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yards	—	29.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Barion BrownNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bryce LanceNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Receiving yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bryce LanceNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris OlaveNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Receiving yards	—	97.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris OlaveNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Receptions	—	7.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—CJ DonaldsonNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—CJ DonaldsonNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—CJ DonaldsonNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yards	—	14.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devaughn VeleNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Receiving yards	—	45.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devaughn VeleNO · NO @ NYG	WR	Receptions	—	4.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Juwan JohnsonNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	45.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Juwan JohnsonNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	4.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kendre MillerNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kendre MillerNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kendre MillerNO · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yards	—	28.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Noah FantNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	13.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Noah FantNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Oscar DelpNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Oscar DelpNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Treyton WelchNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Treyton WelchNO · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler ShoughNO · NO @ NYG	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.5TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler ShoughNO · NO @ NYG	QB	Passing yards	—	229.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	14.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cam SkatteboNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	1.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris ManhertzNYG · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris ManhertzNYG · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	Receiving yards	—	19.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	Receptions	—	1.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darnell MooneyNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devin SingletaryNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devin SingletaryNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Devin SingletaryNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	50.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah LikelyNYG · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	5.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jameis WinstonNYG · NO @ NYG	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.6TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Malachi FieldsNYG · NO @ NYG	WR	Receptions	—	1.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Najee HarrisNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Najee HarrisNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Najee HarrisNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yards	—	24.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Patrick RicardNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Patrick RicardNYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Theo JohnsonNYG · NO @ NYG	TE	Receiving yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Theo JohnsonNYG · NO @ NYG	TE	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyrone Tracy Jr.NYG · NO @ NYG	RB	Rushing yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

NOTyler Shough

NYGJameis Winston

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

56.3°F · Wind 6.8 mphGusts 11.5 mph · Precipitation chance 1%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

NO @ NYG team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	NO	NYG
Points	22.1	25.7
Scrimmage plays	62.5	64.3
Pass attempts	36.1	31.2
Rush attempts	23.8	30.5
Dropbacks	40.6	34.8
Sacks	2.7	2.6
Scrambles	1.8	1.0
Offensive touchdowns	2.22	2.81
Passing touchdowns	1.52	1.58
Rushing touchdowns	0.70	1.23
Field goals	1.94	1.86
Non-offensive points	1.1	0.9
Called pass rate	64.9%	54.1%
Pass share of attempts	60.3%	50.5%

Working-case clearance notes

Olave illness DNP, Kamara back LP, Shough hand FP.
Mooney and Theo Johnson LP; Najee Harris and Likely FP.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

NO official injury report ↗NYG official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

24 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 4645097c8e71ce2cceff414e805ad87b64992113720b91cbffe9a0381ee66a81.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot