Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Gillette Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

NYJ19.0

NE26.6

Model total: 45.6
Model margin: NE by 7.6

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 2 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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50 of 50 player/stat rows shown · 2 captured selections

NYJ @ NE Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
42Geno SmithNYJ · NYJ @ NE	QB	Passing yardsOVER	220.5	247.5yds	+17.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #42. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
98Garrett WilsonNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	74.5	84.0yds	+6.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #98. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Corey KinerNE · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Corey KinerNE · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Corey KinerNE · NYJ @ NE	RB	Rushing yards	—	30.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—DeMario DouglasNE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	34.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—DeMario DouglasNE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	3.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Drake MayeNE · NYJ @ NE	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.4TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Drake MayeNE · NYJ @ NE	QB	Passing yards	—	243.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Efton Chism IIINE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	22.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Efton Chism IIINE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	2.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Efton Chism IIINE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Eli RaridonNE · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receiving yards	—	23.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Eli RaridonNE · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receptions	—	1.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hunter HenryNE · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receiving yards	—	41.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Hunter HenryNE · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receptions	—	3.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kyle WilliamsNE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	31.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kyle WilliamsNE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	1.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rhamondre StevensonNE · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rhamondre StevensonNE · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receptions	—	3.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rhamondre StevensonNE · NYJ @ NE	RB	Rushing yards	—	85.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Romeo DoubsNE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	50.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Romeo DoubsNE · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	3.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Adonai MitchellNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	28.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Adonai MitchellNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	2.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Braelon AllenNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Braelon AllenNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Braelon AllenNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Rushing yards	—	50.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Breece HallNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receiving yards	—	23.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Breece HallNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receptions	—	2.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Breece HallNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Rushing yards	—	34.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Garrett WilsonNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	7.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Geno SmithNYJ · NYJ @ NE	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.0TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah DavisNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah DavisNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah DavisNYJ · NYJ @ NE	RB	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	34.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	2.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Isaiah WilliamsNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jelani WoodsNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jelani WoodsNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jeremy RuckertNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jeremy RuckertNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receptions	—	1.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenyon SadiqNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenyon SadiqNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receptions	—	3.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenyon SadiqNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mason TaylorNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mason TaylorNYJ · NYJ @ NE	TE	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tim PatrickNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tim PatrickNYJ · NYJ @ NE	WR	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

NYJGeno Smith

NEDrake Maye

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

52.0°F · Wind 5.8 mphGusts 16.1 mph · Precipitation chance 1%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

NYJ @ NE team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	NYJ	NE
Points	19.0	26.6
Scrimmage plays	60.3	61.2
Pass attempts	33.5	29.9
Rush attempts	23.9	28.9
Dropbacks	37.9	35.5
Sacks	2.8	2.4
Scrambles	1.6	3.3
Offensive touchdowns	1.92	2.85
Passing touchdowns	0.99	1.46
Rushing touchdowns	0.93	1.39
Field goals	1.66	1.99
Non-offensive points	0.9	1.1
Called pass rate	62.9%	58.1%
Pass share of attempts	58.4%	50.8%

Working-case clearance notes

Hall/Mitchell DNP; Sadiq LP and Omar Cooper return window need final clearance.
Henderson LP; out reference plus historical-role return alternative. A.J. Brown LP.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

NYJ official injury report ↗NE official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

21 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: e61eb88d27d5bce4bb13ffb7a516b9fd6a9ede4becda070fc14239e63f774603.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot