Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Raymond James Stadium

Download game sheet PDF

SELECTED WORKING CASE

PIT18.6

TB17.3

Model total: 35.8
Model margin: PIT by 1.3

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 9 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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54 of 54 player/stat rows shown · 9 captured selections

PIT @ TB Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
5Germie BernardPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	3.5	2.3rec	+34.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #5. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
8Germie BernardPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	39.5	25.1yds	+29.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #8. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
33Jalon DanielsTB · PIT @ TB	QB	Passing yardsOVER	177.5	214.3yds	+20.8 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #33. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
40DK MetcalfPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yardsUNDER	51.5	40.6yds	+17.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #40. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
51Bucky IrvingTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	65.5	76.0yds	+15.2 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #51. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
62Pat FreiermuthPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Receiving yardsUNDER	34.5	30.1yds	+12.2 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #62. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
67Aaron RodgersPIT · PIT @ TB	QB	Passing yardsUNDER	231.5	215.8yds	+11.8 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #67. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
70DK MetcalfPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	ReceptionsUNDER	3.5	3.4rec	+11.1 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #70. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
74Kenny GainwellTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Rushing yardsUNDER	9.5	8.3yds	+9.8 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #74. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Aaron RodgersPIT · PIT @ TB	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.3TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Aaron RodgersPIT · PIT @ TB	QB	Rushing yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ben SkowronekPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ben SkowronekPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Receiving yards	—	24.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Darnell WashingtonPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Receptions	—	2.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—DK MetcalfPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Germie BernardPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaylen WarrenPIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Receiving yards	—	41.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaylen WarrenPIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Receptions	—	3.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jaylen WarrenPIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Rushing yards	—	107.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Receptions	—	3.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Pat FreiermuthPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rico DowdlePIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rico DowdlePIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Receptions	—	0.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rico DowdlePIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Rushing yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Robert TonyanPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Robert TonyanPIT · PIT @ TB	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Roman WilsonPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	34.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Roman WilsonPIT · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	2.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Travis HomerPIT · PIT @ TB	RB	Rushing yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bucky IrvingTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Receiving yards	—	15.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Bucky IrvingTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Receptions	—	3.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cade OttonTB · PIT @ TB	TE	Receiving yards	—	37.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cade OttonTB · PIT @ TB	TE	Receptions	—	3.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris Godwin Jr.TB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	37.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris Godwin Jr.TB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	3.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chris Godwin Jr.TB · PIT @ TB	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Emeka EgbukaTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	39.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Emeka EgbukaTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	4.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Emeka EgbukaTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalon DanielsTB · PIT @ TB	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.1TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jalon DanielsTB · PIT @ TB	QB	Rushing yards	—	35.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kameron JohnsonTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kameron JohnsonTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenny GainwellTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kenny GainwellTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Receptions	—	2.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Payne DurhamTB · PIT @ TB	TE	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Payne DurhamTB · PIT @ TB	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Sean TuckerTB · PIT @ TB	RB	Rushing yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ted Hurst IIITB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ted Hurst IIITB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tez JohnsonTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receiving yards	—	28.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tez JohnsonTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tez JohnsonTB · PIT @ TB	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

PITAaron Rodgers

TBJalon Daniels

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

78.3°F · Wind 18.0 mphGusts 33.4 mph · Precipitation chance 16%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

PIT @ TB team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	PIT	TB
Points	18.6	17.3
Scrimmage plays	59.7	61.3
Pass attempts	32.3	32.7
Rush attempts	25.4	26.1
Dropbacks	35.2	37.8
Sacks	2.1	2.4
Scrambles	0.9	2.6
Offensive touchdowns	2.02	1.73
Passing touchdowns	1.31	1.07
Rushing touchdowns	0.72	0.66
Field goals	1.25	1.54
Non-offensive points	1.0	0.8
Called pass rate	59.0%	61.6%
Pass share of attempts	55.9%	55.7%

Working-case clearance notes

Coach plans Daniels start; Mayfield thumb DNP, Daniels sample remains limited.
Godwin DNP is rest; Tucker quad DNP and David Sills window need follow-up.
Pittsburgh Roman Wilson/Skowronek DNP; Dowdle LP.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

PIT official injury report ↗TB official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

22 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 077b68e1f81daaddd579b6b06e9bc7c35ecea222b41c6765cbea2f8d0f85830b.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot