Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.
Selected working case
Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Empower Field at Mile High
SELECTED WORKING CASE
SEA24.8
DEN22.9
- Model total
- 47.7
- Model margin
- SEA by 1.9
Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case
ScheduledThu, Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.
Player Props
Selected working case · captured markets
Player PropsGameDay projections for this matchup, with 17 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.
63 of 63 player/stat rows shown · 17 captured selections
| Rank / player | Position | Market / side | Line | GameDay Projection | Edge* | Book / American odds | Live / final | Track | Status / evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
9J.K. DobbinsDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing yardsOVER | 49.5 | 65.0yds | +28.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #9. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
13Troy FranklinDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | ReceptionsUNDER | 1.5 | 0.9rec | +27.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #13. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
24Sam DarnoldSEA · SEA @ DEN | QB | Passing yardsOVER | 218.5 | 254.7yds | +22.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #24. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
38Emanuel WilsonSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | ReceptionsUNDER | 1.5 | 1.1rec | +18.7 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #38. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
39Courtland SuttonDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yardsUNDER | 32.5 | 24.4yds | +18.5 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #39. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
41RJ HarveyDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yardsOVER | 20.5 | 30.8yds | +17.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #41. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
46RJ HarveyDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | ReceptionsOVER | 3.5 | 4.7rec | +16.4 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #46. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
53Evan EngramDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | ReceptionsUNDER | 2.5 | 2.3rec | +14.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #53. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
55Courtland SuttonDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | ReceptionsUNDER | 3.5 | 2.6rec | +14.3 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #55. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
58RJ HarveyDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing + receiving yardsOVER | 39.5 | 46.6yds | +13.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #58. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
73Emanuel WilsonSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing + receiving yardsUNDER | 79.5 | 73.3yds | +10.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #73. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
77Cooper KuppSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yardsOVER | 20.5 | 28.7yds | +9.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #77. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
81Troy FranklinDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yardsUNDER | 17.5 | 15.2yds | +9.2 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #81. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
84Emanuel WilsonSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing yardsUNDER | 66.5 | 62.0yds | +8.6 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #84. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
88Evan EngramDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receiving yardsOVER | 20.5 | 28.3yds | +7.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #88. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
89Sam DarnoldSEA · SEA @ DEN | QB | Passing touchdownsOVER | 1.5 | 1.7TDs | +7.9 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #89. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
100Jaylen WaddleDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | ReceptionsUNDER | 4.5 | 4.2rec | +6.1 pp | —Pregame Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET | Conditional researchWeekly rank #100. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers. | ||
—Adam PrenticeDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yards | — | 1.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Adam PrenticeDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receptions | — | 0.2rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Adam PrenticeDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing yards | — | 1.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Adam TrautmanDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receiving yards | — | 2.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Adam TrautmanDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receptions | — | 0.5rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Bo NixDEN · SEA @ DEN | QB | Passing touchdowns | — | 1.4TDs | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Bo NixDEN · SEA @ DEN | QB | Passing yards | — | 198.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—J.K. DobbinsDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yards | — | 5.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—J.K. DobbinsDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receptions | — | 1.2rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yards | — | 48.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Jaylen WaddleDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Rushing yards | — | 7.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yards | — | 2.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Lil'Jordan HumphreyDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receptions | — | 0.2rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yards | — | 4.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receptions | — | 0.7rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Marvin Mims Jr.DEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Rushing yards | — | 1.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Nate AdkinsDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receiving yards | — | 9.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Nate AdkinsDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receptions | — | 0.9rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Nate AdkinsDEN · SEA @ DEN | TE | Rushing yards | — | 2.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—RJ HarveyDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing yards | — | 16.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Troy FranklinDEN · SEA @ DEN | WR | Rushing yards | — | 1.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Tyler BadieDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yards | — | 16.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Tyler BadieDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receptions | — | 1.4rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Tyler BadieDEN · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing yards | — | 5.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—AJ BarnerSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receiving yards | — | 27.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—AJ BarnerSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receptions | — | 2.7rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—AJ BarnerSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Rushing yards | — | 0.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Brady RussellSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yards | — | 9.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Brady RussellSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receptions | — | 0.7rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Cooper KuppSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receptions | — | 2.4rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Elijah ArroyoSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receiving yards | — | 4.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Elijah ArroyoSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receptions | — | 0.2rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Emanuel WilsonSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yards | — | 11.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Eric SaubertSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receiving yards | — | 1.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Eric SaubertSEA · SEA @ DEN | TE | Receptions | — | 0.4rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—George HolaniSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receiving yards | — | 17.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—George HolaniSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Receptions | — | 2.4rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—George HolaniSEA · SEA @ DEN | RB | Rushing yards | — | 19.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yards | — | 130.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receptions | — | 8.3rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Rushing yards | — | 4.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yards | — | 21.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receptions | — | 2.0rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Rashid ShaheedSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Rushing yards | — | 9.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Tory HortonSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receiving yards | — | 12.0yds | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
—Tory HortonSEA · SEA @ DEN | WR | Receptions | — | 0.9rec | Unavailable | No published market selection | —Pregame | — | Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view. |
* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.
Quarterback assumptions
SEASam Darnold
DENBo NixThese are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.
Weather & venue
47.3°F · Wind 4.1 mphGusts 15.0 mph · Precipitation chance 0%
Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.
National Weather Service forecast source ↗Team environment
Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.
| Model projection | SEA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.8 | 22.9 |
| Scrimmage plays | 61.5 | 61.7 |
| Pass attempts | 33.1 | 34.0 |
| Rush attempts | 25.7 | 25.7 |
| Dropbacks | 37.3 | 38.2 |
| Sacks | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| Scrambles | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Offensive touchdowns | 2.62 | 2.37 |
| Passing touchdowns | 1.72 | 1.37 |
| Rushing touchdowns | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Field goals | 1.96 | 1.88 |
| Non-offensive points | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Called pass rate | 60.7% | 62.0% |
| Pass share of attempts | 56.3% | 57.0% |
Working-case clearance notes
- JSN cleared on final report; Charbonnet OUT/PUP.
- Denver Surtain/Hufanga OUT, Moss questionable; Seattle Drake Thomas/Surratt OUT.
- Charles now practice squad; Velus active with no observed offensive role.
- Defensive personnel effects are flagged, not separately fitted into this environment.
Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.
Sources and preserved game sheet
The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.
24 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: 05aa93027e20a8cbd0fd597e7a4e0dc9007de229a1e7150e78ec167480829059.
How to read the game environments
Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.
Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.
Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.
The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.
Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot