Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Lucas Oil Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

TEN19.3

IND26.2

Model total: 45.5
Model margin: IND by 6.9

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledSun, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 0 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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52 of 52 player/stat rows shown · 0 captured selections

TEN @ IND Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
—Andrew OgletreeIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Andrew OgletreeIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ashton DulinIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ashton DulinIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Daniel JonesIND · TEN @ IND	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.8TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Daniel JonesIND · TEN @ IND	QB	Passing yards	—	178.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Deion BurksIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Deion BurksIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Deion BurksIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Rushing yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonathan TaylorIND · TEN @ IND	RB	Receiving yards	—	19.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonathan TaylorIND · TEN @ IND	RB	Receptions	—	2.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jonathan TaylorIND · TEN @ IND	RB	Rushing yards	—	98.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh DownsIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	44.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Josh DownsIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	3.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keenan AllenIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Keenan AllenIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	3.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Laquon TreadwellIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	28.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Laquon TreadwellIND · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	2.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mo Alie-CoxIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Mo Alie-CoxIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Seth McGowanIND · TEN @ IND	RB	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Seth McGowanIND · TEN @ IND	RB	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Seth McGowanIND · TEN @ IND	RB	Rushing yards	—	15.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler WarrenIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Receiving yards	—	37.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler WarrenIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Receptions	—	5.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyler WarrenIND · TEN @ IND	TE	Rushing yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Calvin RidleyTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	17.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Calvin RidleyTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cam WardTEN · TEN @ IND	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	1.1TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Cam WardTEN · TEN @ IND	QB	Passing yards	—	190.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Carnell TateTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	57.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Carnell TateTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	4.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chimere DikeTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	11.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chimere DikeTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	1.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Daniel BellingerTEN · TEN @ IND	TE	Receiving yards	—	6.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Daniel BellingerTEN · TEN @ IND	TE	Receptions	—	1.1rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Elic AyomanorTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	26.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Elic AyomanorTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	1.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Gunnar HelmTEN · TEN @ IND	TE	Receiving yards	—	12.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Gunnar HelmTEN · TEN @ IND	TE	Receptions	—	1.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kylen GransonTEN · TEN @ IND	TE	Receiving yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kylen GransonTEN · TEN @ IND	TE	Receptions	—	0.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Nicholas SingletonTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Rushing yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tony PollardTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tony PollardTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Receptions	—	1.7rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tony PollardTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Rushing yards	—	77.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Receiving yards	—	14.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Receptions	—	2.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Tyjae SpearsTEN · TEN @ IND	RB	Rushing yards	—	18.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receiving yards	—	36.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Receptions	—	4.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Wan'Dale RobinsonTEN · TEN @ IND	WR	Rushing yards	—	0.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

TENCam Ward

INDDaniel Jones

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

Protected venueRoof assumed closed; official decision pending.

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. Protected venue features are zero.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

TEN @ IND team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	TEN	IND
Points	19.3	26.2
Scrimmage plays	61.6	63.2
Pass attempts	32.8	30.6
Rush attempts	26.1	30.3
Dropbacks	37.0	35.1
Sacks	2.7	2.3
Scrambles	1.6	2.2
Offensive touchdowns	1.97	2.71
Passing touchdowns	1.10	1.84
Rushing touchdowns	0.87	0.88
Field goals	1.59	2.24
Non-offensive points	1.0	0.9
Called pass rate	60.2%	55.5%
Pass share of attempts	55.6%	50.3%

Working-case clearance notes

Pollard DNP and Spears LP; game status not designated.
Slayton FP after injury; no historical role prior in this run. Downs LP; Allen/Taylor rest.
Roof/window TBD; closed reference plus open alternative.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

TEN official injury report ↗IND official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

23 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: b5bfdf2b81da5b7255b217301f22868b25580fc8bfcb6b79e02c5e6a73b6cdd4.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot