Preserved October 14 runPersonnel and weather inputs checked around 7:55 PM ET. Final player clearance, roof decisions and later forecast changes remain pending. Loading these results does not refresh the inputs.

ScenarioSelected working case

Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers

Levi's Stadium

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SELECTED WORKING CASE

WAS17.9

SF27.9

Model total: 45.7
Model margin: SF by 10.0

Expected scores from our model · 10,000 simulation draws per case

ScheduledMon, Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET · Live scores and prop progress start near kickoff.

Player Props

Selected working case · captured markets

GameDay projections for this matchup, with 12 published Top 100 market selections. Other player stats are projection-only, not betting recommendations. Prices are captured October 14 snapshots, not live odds.

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53 of 53 player/stat rows shown · 12 captured selections

WAS @ SF Week 6 player props and preserved projections
Rank / player	Position	Market / side	Line	GameDay Projection	Edge*	Book / American odds	Live / final	Track	Status / evidence
4Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	39.5	59.5yds	+35.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #4. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
12Kaelon BlackSF · WAS @ SF	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	23.5	34.6yds	+27.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #12. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
29Christian McCaffreySF · WAS @ SF	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	58.5	73.5yds	+21.3 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #29. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
35Rachaad WhiteWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Rushing yardsOVER	20.5	29.2yds	+19.6 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #35. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
36Christian McCaffreySF · WAS @ SF	RB	Receiving yardsUNDER	39.5	30.5yds	+19.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #36. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
56Mike EvansSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yardsOVER	73.5	90.9yds	+14.2 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #56. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
57Jayden DanielsWAS · WAS @ SF	QB	Passing touchdownsUNDER	1.5	1.0TDs	+13.7 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #57. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
60Mike EvansSF · WAS @ SF	WR	ReceptionsOVER	5.5	6.7rec	+12.8 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #60. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
66Brock PurdySF · WAS @ SF	QB	Passing yardsOVER	247.5	269.4yds	+11.9 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #66. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
72George KittleSF · WAS @ SF	TE	ReceptionsUNDER	5.5	4.7rec	+11.0 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #72. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
90Christian McCaffreySF · WAS @ SF	RB	ReceptionsUNDER	4.5	4.3rec	+7.8 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #90. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
91George KittleSF · WAS @ SF	TE	Receiving yardsUNDER	65.5	60.1yds	+7.5 pp	＋ Add to My Wagers	—Pregame Oct 19, 8:15 PM ET		Conditional researchWeekly rank #91. Model inputs Oct 14, 7:55 PM ET; final clearance pending. Select the market for source times, alternative offers and Add to My Wagers.
—Brandin CooksSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brandin CooksSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Brock PurdySF · WAS @ SF	QB	Passing touchdowns	—	2.3TDs	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jacob CowingSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	2.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jacob CowingSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	0.3rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jacob CowingSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Rushing yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jordan JamesSF · WAS @ SF	RB	Rushing yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jordan WatkinsSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	17.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jordan WatkinsSF · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kaelon BlackSF · WAS @ SF	RB	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kaelon BlackSF · WAS @ SF	RB	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kyle JuszczykSF · WAS @ SF	RB	Receiving yards	—	12.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Kyle JuszczykSF · WAS @ SF	RB	Receptions	—	0.9rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luke FarrellSF · WAS @ SF	TE	Receiving yards	—	4.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Luke FarrellSF · WAS @ SF	TE	Receptions	—	0.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Antonio WilliamsWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	31.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Antonio WilliamsWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	3.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Austin EkelerWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Austin EkelerWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Austin EkelerWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Rushing yards	—	7.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ben SinnottWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receiving yards	—	1.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Ben SinnottWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receptions	—	0.2rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chig OkonkwoWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receiving yards	—	16.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Chig OkonkwoWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Colson YankoffWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receiving yards	—	3.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Colson YankoffWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receptions	—	0.4rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dyami BrownWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	17.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Dyami BrownWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	1.6rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Receiving yards	—	8.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jacory Croskey-MerrittWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Jayden DanielsWAS · WAS @ SF	QB	Passing yards	—	198.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—John BatesWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receiving yards	—	5.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—John BatesWAS · WAS @ SF	TE	Receptions	—	0.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rachaad WhiteWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Receiving yards	—	10.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Rachaad WhiteWAS · WAS @ SF	RB	Receptions	—	2.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Stefon DiggsWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	33.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Stefon DiggsWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	3.5rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Terry McLaurinWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	40.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Terry McLaurinWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	2.8rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Treylon BurksWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receiving yards	—	17.0yds	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.
—Treylon BurksWAS · WAS @ SF	WR	Receptions	—	1.0rec	Unavailable	No published market selection	—Pregame	—	Projection onlyRounded saved game-sheet projection. No supported line, price, edge or recommendation is published in this view.

* Uncalibrated model probability minus captured implied probability, in percentage points; vig not removed. One selected side per quoted player/stat. Black tick = captured line; ice-blue diamond = GameDay projection; gold dot = actual. Stats refresh every 30 seconds near kickoff. Missing stats stay unavailable; sportsbook settlement is separate. Projection-only values are rounded in the original sheet; quoted rows retain exact weekly-board means.

Quarterback assumptions

WASJayden Daniels

SFBrock Purdy

These are the selected scenario assumptions. Final starter and active checks remain separate.

Weather & venue

59.6°F · Wind 12.7 mphGusts 29.9 mph · Precipitation chance 2%

Archived forecast retrieved Wed, Oct 14, 7:46 PM ET. The saved environment already includes its fitted wind and temperature effects. Gusts and rain are review flags without a separate fitted penalty.

National Weather Service forecast source ↗

Team environment

Expected game totals for this case. Passing TDs and receiving TDs share one team scoring event.

WAS @ SF team opportunities and scoring inventory
Model projection	WAS	SF
Points	17.9	27.9
Scrimmage plays	60.9	60.4
Pass attempts	32.8	32.1
Rush attempts	25.6	26.3
Dropbacks	39.8	36.1
Sacks	2.5	2.0
Scrambles	4.5	2.0
Offensive touchdowns	1.67	3.27
Passing touchdowns	0.97	2.27
Rushing touchdowns	0.71	0.99
Field goals	1.86	1.62
Non-offensive points	0.8	0.7
Called pass rate	65.3%	59.7%
Pass share of attempts	56.1%	54.9%

Working-case clearance notes

Deebo out working case; Cooks gets 50% of freed targets, bracketed 25% / 75%.
SF/WAS Monday final reports not yet available; Juszczyk/Bosa/Greenlaw review remains.

Notes describe the October 14 source snapshot. Alternative cases are separate, unweighted scenarios. DNP and LP are practice levels, not final OUT designations. Defensive and offensive-line injury effects are not separately fitted.

Sources and preserved game sheet

The three-page R4 sheet includes player projections, fantasy means and P90s, experimental ATD convictions, roster coverage, and scenario notes. It is the preserved October 14 run; later market-board additions are separate.

WAS official injury report ↗SF official injury report ↗National Weather Service stadium forecast ↗

24 players projected in the working case. Unsupported roles remain blank in the preserved sheet. Report SHA-256: ecd4eefe44910fadb84056dca8add9b7c1c8608e0158f1989b04651cbce0b879.

How to read the game environments

Model scores, totals and margins are independent projections, not sportsbook lines. The selected mean environments use play-by-play through completed Week 5 games and the October 14 evening source snapshot. The saved coefficients were used without retraining, and weather was applied once.

Fourteen selected working cases and twelve alternatives passed the saved accounting checks. Alternatives have no assigned probabilities and are not blended into the working case. Quarterback and workload choices remain assumptions where flagged.

Scrimmage plays = pass attempts + rush attempts + sacks. Passing TDs + rushing TDs = offensive TDs. Points = 6.84 × offensive TDs + 3 × field goals + non-offensive points. Rounded display values can differ slightly from exact totals.

The environment model remains experimental. Its saved historical game-total MAE was 11.32 points versus 10.71 for the simple benchmark. Consistency checks do not establish forecasting accuracy. Final game designations, inactives, starters, Atlanta/Indianapolis roof decisions, and later forecasts require review.

Top 100 prop edges · Top 50 ATD convictions · Preserved market snapshot